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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

reppeptgs 26 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI, 25 August, 2015

    by reppeptgs Jul 25, 2015 8:34 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs 23 hours ago Flag

    Thank you so much for your note, lcstack. I'm very glad I could be of some support to you as AVNR suffered attack after setback after attack. Let's hope SPPI fares as well. Today was a good start!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI, 25 August, 2015

    by reppeptgs Jul 25, 2015 8:34 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 26, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Since AVNR, the quality of my beverages has improved.

    And the stock was a great training ground. So many times, AVNR seemed to defy logic (and obey gravity!). We kept the faith through all the onslaughts, and ultimately things worked out well.

    SPPI defies logic as well. I'm planning on the valuation becoming so compelling that the stock will no longer be vulnerable to attack.

    But I'll keep my helmet near by. And the flask.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The market, and especially SPPI, were down this week. It’s all about perspective. Here is Harry Nilsson.

    /watch?v=yKlrUE5dM9I

    It had already been a rough week. SPPI had lost 4% by end of trade Thursday. Then came the big whack: BIIB cut its earnings forecast. Horrors! Actually, it was bad. Avanir lost another 3.9% (28 cents) on Friday alone. The stock closed at $6.85, down 7.9% on the week. YTD, the stock is red (again), by 1.2%. The NAS lost 2.3%; its YTD gain is now 7.4%. The bio indexes had a minor bloodbath: the BTK sank 4.7%, the IBB flopped 5.02%; and the XBI plummeted 5.8%.

    Last July 24, SPPI closed at $7.10. This gives the stock a YOY (ahem) loss of 3.5%. Our reign in the green lasted a week.

    Here is the stock’s daily range for the week:

    M 7.31-7.49
    T 7.27-7.46
    W 7.15-7.345
    TH 7.11-7.35
    F 6.85-7.10

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 7.045-7.20
    T 7.12-7.31
    W 7.125-7.32
    TH 7.265-7.41
    F 7.225-7.45

    I did mention that things seemed a bit frothy last week. I suggested longs look at a 3-month chart of the XBI, which was a thing to see.

    Then Biogen. ‘We had great earnings, but, um, we aren’t going to make as much as we thought we would, next quarter’. BAM!

    Want to feel a little better, SPPI longs? Take a look at a year’s chart for BIIB.

    I’m not worried about SPPI’s ultimate outcome. This stuff is par for the course, especially for a company/stock with real potential. I try to have a little fun on the dips. I sold some of of my shares Monday at $7.40. Then bought back at $6.92. Was my timing perfect? Already not. Will I be sitting here Monday or even Tuesday, cursing my lack of patience? Probably.

    But I made a little off the dip, and used some of the profit to add to my KERX (which just got an official early positive indication from the European CHMP for its kidney drug). That stock, curiously, got whacked. Sounds fishy. And familiar…

    The closing song is a new favorite. By Blackberry Smoke-No Way Back to Eden.

    /watch?v=oEw_0QXa2Ek

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow

    by freedomswing Jul 24, 2015 12:40 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 24, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    I just added to my position at just under 8 bucks.

    This is temporary.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Good weekend, all! Here’s our theme, in a rare live performance:

    /watch?v=kK62tfoCmuQ

    Well, the market didn’t find much to worry about this week. Combine that with some impressive earnings, and watch out, bears. SPPI joined in the festivities, gaining 36 cents or 4% to $7.44. YTD, the stock is now up 7.4%. The NAS impressively gained 4.3%; its YTD gain is now 10%. The bio indexes all raced forward: the BTK rose 6.1%, the IBB gained 6.6%; and the XBI climbed 7.3%.

    Last July 17, the stock closed at $7.03. This gives the stock a YOY (wait for it) GAIN of 5.8%. It’s been a while since I’ve seen that.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 7.045-7.20
    T 7.12-7.31
    W 7.125-7.32
    TH 7.265-7.41
    F 7.225-7.45

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 6.85-7.20
    T 6.875-7.16
    W 6.87-7.23
    TH 6.91-7.10
    F 6.95-7.11

    The daily ranges are nice to look at. Looks like…progress. I particularly like the way the bears couldn’t get the stock under $7.00 this week. Last week, the low was in the 6’s every day.

    Want to see a long’s dream? Take a look at a yearly chart for the SPDR S&P Bio Tech ETF (Ticker: XBI). That’s what a long investor dreams about!

    But the market is feeling a little frothy to me. Any excuse like a hiccup in Greece or Yellen spilling her coffee might bring the market down pretty quickly. Now take a look at the 3-month chart for the XBI. I don’t think it has much higher to go before it makes a little correction.

    So enjoy your portfolio if SPPI is a large holding. I’m holding some dry powder in case there’s a buying opportunity lurking ahead. It won’t feel fun, but it may be one of the very last chances around $7.00 or slightly below.

    We’re steaming toward home, in spite of any undesired detours.

    Seems I'm going live this morning. Don't miss this one, and turn it up!

    /watch?v=LinXv5qRXPI

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some things I've learned since holding IDRA

    by travelingfam4 Jul 15, 2015 6:39 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 17, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    You are a true optimist my friend. Any biotechnology investment, especially one with promise, is subject to attack. I'll keep my ton hat and flask handy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some things I've learned since holding IDRA

    by travelingfam4 Jul 15, 2015 6:39 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 16, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Thanks, seacrets! Yes, I'm long IDRA and have been adding to my position. Glad to see you're here, too.

    Right now my most significant holding is SPPI, where I am sometimes seen on Saturday mornings.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Some things I've learned since holding IDRA

    by travelingfam4 Jul 15, 2015 6:39 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 16, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    Nice. Call.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 11, 2015 8:20 AM Flag

    That comes out to a gain of 2.16%. Beats any 6-month CD I know of.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Good morning! Let’s start with Sir Ray:

    /watch?v=HAjeSS3kktA

    The market has seen quite a week. Between Greece and China, there have been lots of things to worry traders. SPPI and the bio sector have ridden the waves, but come out largely unscathed. Spectrum gained 10 cents or 1.4% to $7.08. YTD, the stock is now up 2.2%. The NAS lost 0.2%; its YTD gain is now 5.5% (down 1.8% from 2 weeks ago). The bio indexes all gained a bit: the BTK rose .7%, the IBB gained .66%; and the XBI rose eyebrows, gaining 2.2%.

    Last July 10, the stock closed at $7.90. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 10.4% (making progress here, and the comparisons get better in the weeks to come).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 6.85-7.20
    T 6.875-7.16
    W 6.87-7.23
    TH 6.91-7.10
    F 6.95-7.11

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 6.56-7.00
    T 6.57-6.84
    W 6.72-7.05
    TH 6.88-7.00
    F Holiday

    Through all the tumult, I wouldn’t have been surprised if SPPI had struggled a bit more over the past couple weeks. But as you can see, in terms of the daily range, the stock has actually made some progress.

    I’d be REALLY encouraged if the stock price movement was supported by strong volume, but that has not been the case. Volume has been around average all this week, with the exception of Friday, when it was just really low.

    Still, the buoyancy of the price hints at the catalysts that lurk not so far around the corner. Without volume, we’ll stay range bound, capping at $7.50 and supported around $6.50. This holding may be a tad boring for the short term, but it beats wondering if the Chinese market will lose another 30% next month…

    To close, here’s one I forgot how much I liked. It always brings a smile to my face, as I hope it does yours. Here’s The Eames Era:

    /watch?v=fBMMw0Zb6Eo

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs by reppeptgs Jul 2, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    I'll be away from internet access over the weekend, so I won't be able to post a Saturday SPPI this week.

    Still feeling good about the investment. Catalysts are lurking. Happy to hold my position and wait.

    Have a good, festive, and safe holiday, everyone.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Greetings, SPPI devotees! We begin with a song by Todd Rundgren and Utopia—the ORIGINAL version of a song made popular by another group. That second group basically copied the original. So let’s give credit where it’s due. Oh, and dig the jumpsuits.

    /watch?v=IPDQUp_audU

    SPPI and the market pulled back a bit this week. The stock lost 15 cents or 2.1% to $6.96. YTD, the stock is still officially green, but only by 0.4%. The NAS lost 0.7%; its YTD gain is now 7.3%. The bio indexes all gave back a bit: the BTK lost .23%, the IBB lost 1.2%; and the XBI fell .98%.

    Last June 27, the stock closed at $8.01. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 11.1% (1.1% better than last week’s comparison).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 7.07-7.37
    T 7.20-7.38
    W 7.03-7.35
    TH 6.735-7.09
    F 6.80-7.01

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 6.55-6.78
    T 6.64-6.80
    W 6.64-6.74
    TH 6.69-6.93
    F 6.88-7.11

    Taking a look at the one-year chart, it appears to me the price has completed a cup that began with the patent court ruling in late February. Barring news, I’d suspect the stock would stay in the $7 range until a breakout…maybe October, with CE Melphalan PDUFA on the 23rd.

    In the meantime, Armistice Capital is still out there, a lurking catalyst. It’s been about 10 days since we’ve heard from them, and complete radio silence from the company on the issues Armistice has raised about shareholder neglect. A missive from either party could make for an exciting day around here.

    Basically, I still feel very good about my long position. If the stock gets down to the mid-$6 level, I’ll add some. Overall, I believe it’s just a matter of time before longs here are vindicated.

    To shake myself out of my musical time warp, I’ll play something from this century. Here are (is?) Fountains of Wayne, with a tune I’d suggest you turn up just a bit. Oh, and it's probably rated PG.

    /watch?v=jq5W-Pc4Q4w

    Sarge

  • Reply to

    Afternoon Delight....

    by ouch_yikes Jun 22, 2015 2:38 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 22, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    That one harkens back to the days of AM radio...and hits being played every hour, on the hour. I don't think I've recovered to this day.

    But how about this...

    /watch?v=nP6xBFyA_aw

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Reppeptgs...

    by ouch_yikes Jun 22, 2015 2:55 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 22, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    Ask and you shall receive, Ouch!

    /watch?v=-P67b07z7Qw

    SP

    P.S. Anyone have a theory on the sudden rise in price and volume about 40 minutes ago?

  • Once in a while, in the market as in life, it’s good to pause and take things in:

    /watch?v=fZ1tF6LgB40

    It was a good week for biotechs, especially SPPI. The stock gained 37 cents or 5.49% to $7.11. YTD, the stock is officially GREEN by 2.6% (first time since February 20). The NAS gained 1.3%; its YTD gain is now 8%. The bio indexes were all green: the BTK gained 3.56%, the IBB gained 3.73%; while the XBI jumped 5.1%.

    Last June 12, the stock closed at $8.29. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 14.2% (5.7% better than last week's comparison).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 6.55-6.78
    T 6.64-6.80
    W 6.64-6.74
    TH 6.69-6.93
    F 6.88-7.11

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 6.74-6.90
    T 6.64-6.88
    W 6.62-6.76 (approx.)
    TH 6.67-6.81
    F 6.72-6.80

    Last week I looked at the stock’s action and the chart, and couldn’t rule out a visit back to the $6.45 area before the price moved up. That was not correct, and I’m quite happy about it.

    Volume has been woeful the last couple weeks. Monday thru Wednesday, the HIGHest volume was 469K (which made it easier to tolerate the red days). Thursday, when the market rallied after the non-news from the Fed, SPPI followed suit, gaining 3.3% on volume of 632K. Not much, but compared to recent days, worth mentioning. Friday, with a gain of 2.6%, volume was 1.5 million, the highest for this stock since June 3.

    Now, yesterday was quadruple witching, and that always messes with things. Volume and price alike can take strange turns on these Fridays. But I’m still encouraged by the bottom line.

    A weekend to savor. This week, at least, this investment shone just a bit. Here’s a song with a wonderful groove to help savor the moment.

    /watch?v=aMnFALkeb-Q

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • To open, I give you the great JT:

    /watch?v=sW7Z1VttPKk

    We had a bit of a pull-back week, both in the stock and the market. SPPI lost 17 cents or 2.46% to $6.74. The YTD loss is now 2.7%. The NAS lost 0.3%; its YTD gain slipped to 6.7%. The bio indexes were all red: the BTK lost 1.3%, the IBB lost 0.8%; while the XBI gave back 1.5%.

    Last June 12, the stock closed at $8.42. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 19.9% (barely staying below the bear zone).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 6.74-6.90
    T 6.64-6.88
    W 6.62-6.76 (approx.)
    TH 6.67-6.81
    F 6.72-6.80

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 6.05-6.37
    T 6.13-6.29 (approx..)
    W 6.19-6.78
    TH 6.63-6.77
    F 6.65-6.92

    Looking at a 6-month chart, it looks like SPPI has made some real progress. After the earth shattering patent court result (please note the sarcasm), the stock seemed to have a cap in the $6.45 area. The stock was range bound for a couple months, and visited the $5.45-5.50 range twice, creating a double bottom.

    Since the challenge to the board of trustees by Armistice Capital, things have looked up. When the news first hit, it propelled the stock beyond $6.45 and, significantly, closed above that figure. But from there the price dropped almost daily, hitting a low of $6.10 before Armistice got back into the news.

    When that happened, the price eclipsed the initial high, and has not gone down as rapidly as before. I tend to doubt we’ll visit the $6.10 area again-the chart looks like it may re-trace to $6.45-6.50, with the old resistance becoming support.

    In any event, the chart seems to be forming a handle, with hopefully a move upward in the next couple months. Time will tell.

    Our last selection is from the Chicago Transit Authority. The song “proper” begins at 1:15. Prior to that is a rare album piano treat.

    /watch?v=7uy0ldI_1HA

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 6 June 2015

    by reppeptgs Jun 6, 2015 9:15 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 13, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Yo Mike--thanks for the shout out!

    I'm about to post today's missive, but wanted to say hello. I hope you're enjoying your summer.

    Thanks for the thumbs up. As you can see, the jury is still out on me in these here parts.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I’ve had this song in my head for a week. Now I give it to you. Hope it gives you a smile:

    /watch?v=X_WlLYBfL-k

    This was a good week. SPPI gained 64 cents or 10.2% to $6.91 (thanks, Armistice Capital!). YTD, it has now lost just 0.3%. The NAS lost 1.57 points on the week—technically 0%; its YTD gain is 7.0%. The bio indexes were again mixed: the BTK lost .52%, while the IBB gained .55%; and the XBI rose an impressive 2.3%.

    Last June 5, SPPI closed at $8.00. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 13.6% (down from 19.5% last week).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 6.05-6.37
    T 6.13-6.29 (approximate)
    W 6.19-6.78
    TH 6.63-6.77
    F 6.65-6.92

    And the ranges from last week:

    M Holiday
    T 6.19-6.35
    W 6.13-6.32
    TH 6.10-6.225
    F 6.15-6.31

    It’s been a couple of weeks since the filing by Armistice, which propelled the stock price past the range it had been in for a couple months. Since that time, the stock price has been consistent. It’s gone down almost every day. Until Wednesday. When Armistice said, “Hello, we’re still here…”

    Wednesday the stock gained 8.9% on volume that was twice the daily average. Thursday was mostly red, but by day’s end, the stock hadn’t given back a penny. Yesterday the stock managed to gain another 2.5% on a day when most of the stocks I follow were red.

    To close, I give you the man who has the best claim to the title “the 5th Beatle”, Billy Preston. This is a live performance of a song of faith. Of inspiration. I love how the tempo is not one strict beat throughout as seems to be the rule today.

    The “tempo” for SPPI may well change soon as well. Which I’ll also find inspirational.

    /watch?v=YE97w-MHz3Q

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The opening song is I Don’t Like Mondays by the Boomtown Rats. Just because it’s cool.

    /watch?v=Q6I9qVsXnSQ

    This week, SPPI lost 7 cents or 1.1% to $6.27. YTD, it has lost 9.5%. The NAS lost 0.4%; its YTD gain is at 7.1%. The bio indexes were mixed: the BTK lost .12%, while the IBB gained .13%; and the XBI rose 1.7%.

    Last May 30, the stock closed at $7.79. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 19.5% (this is much worse than last week, where the yearly comparison figure was $7.41).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M Holiday
    T 6.19-6.35
    W 6.13-6.32
    TH 6.10-6.225
    F 6.15-6.31

    And the ranges from last weekr:

    M 6.48-6.68
    T 6.36-6.57
    W 6.35-6.52
    TH 6.27-6.41
    F 6.27-6.46

    This week was pretty unremarkable. As the share price drifted slightly downward, there was light volume and no news.

    And that’s all we might see for a while. Longs and shorts have taken their positions and seem to be waiting for things to pan out. News, of course, might shake the stock out of its doldrums. There are some posters at ASCO, but the nickel we gained Friday might be all the pop we get from that. Absent significant news, I don’t foresee much but more of the same for a while.

    But time is on our side as longs. Every day is one day closer to the PDUFA date for CE-Melphalan (Evomela) of October 23. And there may be news from the FDA on SPI-2012; initiation of Phase 3 trials would be significant.

    To close, I was going to post something by BB King (may he RIP). Came across something that looked like BB performing Stand By Me. But it turns out it was a typo. But you know what? We just lost Ben E. King as well, and his signature song is worth a listen every time.

    /watch?v=Ky0x3_0li2I

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

AVNR
16.960.00(0.00%)Jan 12 3:59 PMEST