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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

reppeptgs 64 posts  |  Last Activity: May 30, 2015 8:54 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2001
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  • The opening song is I Don’t Like Mondays by the Boomtown Rats. Just because it’s cool.

    /watch?v=Q6I9qVsXnSQ

    This week, SPPI lost 7 cents or 1.1% to $6.27. YTD, it has lost 9.5%. The NAS lost 0.4%; its YTD gain is at 7.1%. The bio indexes were mixed: the BTK lost .12%, while the IBB gained .13%; and the XBI rose 1.7%.

    Last May 30, the stock closed at $7.79. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 19.5% (this is much worse than last week, where the yearly comparison figure was $7.41).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M Holiday
    T 6.19-6.35
    W 6.13-6.32
    TH 6.10-6.225
    F 6.15-6.31

    And the ranges from last weekr:

    M 6.48-6.68
    T 6.36-6.57
    W 6.35-6.52
    TH 6.27-6.41
    F 6.27-6.46

    This week was pretty unremarkable. As the share price drifted slightly downward, there was light volume and no news.

    And that’s all we might see for a while. Longs and shorts have taken their positions and seem to be waiting for things to pan out. News, of course, might shake the stock out of its doldrums. There are some posters at ASCO, but the nickel we gained Friday might be all the pop we get from that. Absent significant news, I don’t foresee much but more of the same for a while.

    But time is on our side as longs. Every day is one day closer to the PDUFA date for CE-Melphalan (Evomela) of October 23. And there may be news from the FDA on SPI-2012; initiation of Phase 3 trials would be significant.

    To close, I was going to post something by BB King (may he RIP). Came across something that looked like BB performing Stand By Me. But it turns out it was a typo. But you know what? We just lost Ben E. King as well, and his signature song is worth a listen every time.

    /watch?v=Ky0x3_0li2I

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Good morning! I’ve been absent a couple weeks, but today I have time to go over some numbers. In spite this week’s red hue, things are much better for SPPI than the last time I posted.

    /watch?v=waImFgAm7Cc

    This week, SPPI lost 34 cents or 5.1% to $6.34. YTD, it has lost 8.5% (3 weeks ago, this figure was 12%). The NAS gained 0.8%; its YTD gain is at 7.5% (same figure as 3 weeks ago). The bio indexes were all green: the BTK gained 3%; the IBB gained 2.51%; and the XBI rose 4.93%.

    Remember, last week SPPI gained $1.00 or 17.6%. In that context, SPPI’s loss this week can be seen as some profit taking.

    Last May 25, the stock closed at $7.41. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 14.4% (again an improvement over 3 weeks ago, when it was 15.5%).

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 6.48-6.68
    T 6.36-6.57
    W 6.35-6.52
    TH 6.27-6.41
    F 6.27-6.46

    And the ranges from the week ending April 24:

    M 5.83-6.00
    T 5.93-6.03
    W 5.89-6.07
    TH 5.93-6.04
    F 6.01-6.185

    Looking back, it was the filing by Armistice Capital, and SPPI’s subsequent pledge to consider the points raised, that propelled the stock last week. That shook the stock out of the range it had been in since the patent ruling.

    Fortunately, one way or another, the Armistice filing will return. Because it raised an issue that’s been festering for a while now: Board of Directors accountability. I think the primary reason SPPI’s stock price is not higher in spite of 5 approved drugs and a $180-200 million run rate is the company's lack credibility on Wall Street.

    So the company will make an attempt to address its record over recent years. If it is REAL, the stock will get another boost. If it’s a half-hearted attempt to appease, Wall St. will see through it, and we’ll get perhaps another filing, by Armistice or another large shareholder. In either case, management’s days of neglecting shareholders are coming to an end.

    The seas will get choppy, but we're back on course:

    /watch?v=k27um4ZC0Qk

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs by reppeptgs May 12, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Just crossed 2 million at about 11:20, less than 2 hours into the trading day. the stock has been averaging volume of about 1.2 million per day. Good to see a significant spike in volume as the stock is breaking out green.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Can someone explan what are the news

    by cohen00949 May 12, 2015 9:11 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs May 12, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Thank you for the details, my friend. Accountability. It's high time.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It's graduation season, and I need to hit the road for one this morning. So I won't report on last week. Just as well, huh?

    Still fully invested, looking to add at these levels.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BAD news from FDA

    by yekafena_sharkom Apr 30, 2015 3:01 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 30, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    You just went on my Ignore list. congrats.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 29, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    You're absolutely correct, Joe. Don't know where my brain went.

    Anyway, zeroes are worth nothing. Dropping a couple can't matter that much!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Yes, you're reading it right, my friend. Only this company has sales of around $2 million per year. Something we never saw with our other stock.

    And yes, AF is not a friend to this stock, either.

    The game plays on.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 7:32 AM Flag

    Hey there, Hankster! Sunday works. Maybe I should re-name my epistle the "Weekend Update". No, that's been taken.

    I have a little cash that's earmarked for SPPI. Unfortunately, there are ample buying opportunities around here.

    Until there are not. And that day will come.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 7:29 AM Flag

    It's so good to hear from you, dairyman! I do hope you and yours are well.

    This is an excellent company. The stock, however, has not caught up with the value, in my opinion. Kind of reminds me of an investment we used to share.

    If you have questions, I'll try and answer, but also, this is a most helpful board with some very educated posters.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Here’s one from an old friend. It’s today’s message, in musical form. Here’s Mr. Starkey:

    /watch?v=bvEexTomE1I

    This week, SPPI gained 13 cents or 2.17% to $6.10. YTD, it has lost 12% (2 weeks ago, this figure was 13.5%). The NAS gained 3.3%; its YTD gain is now up to 7.5%. The bio indexes were all green: the BTK gained 1.1%; the IBB gained 2%; and the XBI rose 1.3%.

    Last April 24, the stock closed at $7.22. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 15.5%.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.83-6.00
    T 5.93-6.03
    W 5.89-6.07
    TH 5.93-6.04
    F 6.01-6.185

    And last week:

    M 5.96-6.115
    T 6.00-6.08
    W 6.00-6.17
    TH 6.05-6.15
    F 5.90-6.10

    2 weeks ago when I last reported (sorry for last week), the stock had just achieved a 52-week low at $5.58. That next week, I had hopes the stock had bottomed, and was going to make progress. Wrong.

    We’ve been struggling with the $6.00 barrier. Last week, the price was above $6.00 for three days. But last Friday things went downhill. Yesterday was the first time the stock didn’t trade below $6 in a week.

    This week was pretty respectable on stock performance, but with pathetic volume. As much as I’d like to be encouraged, I’m not. We’re range bound, on the top at about $6.46. We reached a low two weeks ago. Will we re-test that low? I wouldn’t rule it out.

    We have a PDUFA date on CE-Melphalan of October 23. If NOTHING else, bringing a sixth drug to market (one that significantly lessens toxicity in the patient), will get some attention.

    But I don’t think we know everything that’s in store for this company. Time is most definitely on our side here. If it goes down to even the $5.70’s again, I have to be a buyer.

    To close, I have the original version of our opening song. It’s by George Harrison. The thing is, Ringo has writer’s credit on the song. But this version sounds less polished—like an earlier version. I suspect George gave Ringo both song and credit.

    This may take a while.

    /watch?v=4p5yzdCa2GE

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 14, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Great to see you too, outrage240!

    In fact, the only thing I'm "outraged" about is that you would think I wouldn't remember you.

    Yes, we've found another bunker, with another thriving wood pile. But here, there are FIVE products on the market with a 6th due this year. $200 million annual run rate. And the best part is the pipeline.

    So I'm really glad you're in this investment. I think we'll do well. All that's required is some patience. And we're experts at that.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 14, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    Precisely, markbuti. We individual investors are like the enlisted in the service. We're often overlooked due to the high profile "brass" such as Baker Bros, etc. But the individual is the one working, by means of wits and his or her own resources, to participate in the American Dream.

    And we need to stick together. So it's terrific that we have a message board such as this where we can commiserate--and occasionally celebrate--over our mutual investment.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 13, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    Good evening, Sir F, and I do trust all is well for you and yours.

    It Don't Come Easy says it all! Love the song, as you know. Maybe I'll share it soon--one version by Ringo, and the "original" by George.

    Your analysis of the short interest was most insightful the last time around. One might even say prophetic. It would be most interesting to see what tale the short numbers tell in this stock.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 13, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Hey Ron--great to hear from you, and I hope you are doing well.

    Another Avanir. Could be worse. Let's just hope the payoff on this one comes a LITTLE faster.

    Glad you got in. Sounds like your timing was pretty good!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Longs, we do not have it easy. The road is anything but clear as we navigate this investment. So I’ve invited the Queen of Soul to give us perspective:

    /watch?v=XESo86WgOrE

    Last week, SPPI gained 3 cents or 0.5% to $6.00. YTD, it has lost 13.5%. The NAS gained 2.2%; its YTD gain is up to 5.5%. The bio indexes all tallied significant gains: the BTK gained 3.8%; the IBB gained 5.2%; and the XBI rose 4.2%. This is a nice bounce back after some lean weeks in the sector.

    YTD, SPPI is down 13.4%. Last April 11, the stock closed at $6.79. Since this figure was much higher last week, the YOY comparison has improved to a loss of 11.6%. If the stock does not rise in the next weeks, this comparison will get progressively worse.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.83-5.98
    T 5.86-6.08
    W 5.58-5.93 (52-week low)
    TH 5.79-5.96
    F 5.92-6.075

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 5.94-6.11
    T 5.99-6.16
    W 5.86-6.02
    TH 5.92-6.13
    F Holiday

    The tape doesn’t lie. The stock got beat up last week. When news came out that the company’s motion for a temporary stay of production by Sandoz was denied, the stock hit a 52-week low. This is partially my fault; I had added a few shares 2 days prior.

    But here’s the thing. It was mentioned this week: this is the most undervalued stock in its sector. The story, objectively, defies rational explanation.

    So if the stock price revisits that low, I’ll probably add again. Because this story will change.

    My handle here, “Sarge”, is not a reference to a prior military career (though if I were to serve, I’d relate more to the enlisted than the brass). Rather, it refers to being a Beatles fan. “reppeptgs” is Sgt. Pepper spelled backwards.

    Everything comes back to the Boys for me. So today, I encourage my fellow longs to hold on to your shares and add if you can. If you sell now, you’ll be singing the following song. I hope that doesn’t happen.

    /watch?v=qhE_9WGujyI

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by joesolomon333 Apr 10, 2015 4:10 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 10, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    The individual investors are always the last to know. I wish these figures were available sooner!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs by reppeptgs Apr 7, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    I've been meaning to take a look at this, and was pleased with what I found.

    SPPI currently has a market cap of $385 million. As of 12/31/14, they had cash of $129 million. Think about that. This company has, in cash alone, over 1/3 the amount of its market cap.

    That fact is enough to help one realize the company is currently undervalued. But...5 drugs on the market, bringing in at least $200 million a year.

    The pipeline, though, is the really exciting thing. A sixth approved medicine, CE-Melphalan, has a PDUFA date of October 23. SPPI-2012 appears to be a consensus blockbuster. And recent acquisition Poziotinib may well be in the same category (according to Barron's, but what do they know?).

    I made some money in AVNR. But the balance sheet for this company is far better. And Avanir sold for $5 billion. Which is 12.98 times the current market cap of SPPI.

    The value is here. It's just a matter of time.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Since Investor Day, SPPI has performed with great consistency. If you like red.

    It’s a little depressing. So I thought I’d start with some great music. Here is an album’s worth of The Doors. Check the second song in—Light My Fire uncut!

    /watch?v=ONqBDz_3wBQ

    Last week, SPPI lost 4 cents or 0.6% to $5.97. YTD, it has lost 13.9%. The NAS lost 0.1% this week; its YTD gain ticked down to 3.2%. The bio indexes were mixed: the BTK lost 2.5%; the IBB lost 0.8%; but the XBI managed a slight gain of 0.3%. Biotech land has not been a very happy place, of late.

    YTD, SPPI is down 13.9%. Last April 4, the stock closed at $7.20. Since this figure was 57 cents higher last week, the YOY comparison has improved to a loss of 17.01%. Yay.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.94-6.11
    T 5.99-6.16
    W 5.86-6.02
    TH 5.92-6.13
    F Holiday

    And the ranges from last week:

    6.02-6.26
    6.10-6.31
    5.89-6.22
    5.81-6.02
    5.88-6.05

    Last week, therefore, was the first week in eons that SPPI has traded with a 5-handle every day.

    That might just change, thanks to the Barron’s article (thanks to gogh9 and todaynotatwork for being the first ones to point it out). SPPI has gotten several initiations of coverage/upgrades, since Friday the 13th. But Barron’s has a longstanding reputation as a respected market observer. Logic says Monday we’ll see a gap up. Recent experience tells us to grab our helmets.

    And the chart is not encouraging. If you don’t believe me, take a look. The one year chart pretty much tells a story. It seems like we need to do some recovering before our days look bright around here more often than not. We need to close above $6.41 before I’ll feel like we're making progress.

    But Barron’s is a milestone. That article told the truth—it was balanced and objective. Eventually the market will realize that. I just won’t guarantee it will be next week.

    To close, here are the Jayhawks with an inspiring song on…perseverance. Our specialty.

    /watch?v=3N8RiTG-ELI

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barron's

    by gogh9 Apr 3, 2015 6:07 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 3, 2015 7:09 AM Flag

    Good morning, gogh9! And isn't this great news to see first thing?

    My only regret is today is a holiday on Wall St.

    Figures.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

AVNR
16.960.00(0.00%)Jan 12 4:00 PMEST