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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

reppeptgs 131 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2001
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  • this week.

    I'll tell you--a PENNY! The stock closed at $5.22 last Friday. We've lost one cent since then.

    Sure doesn't feel like it!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sarge My Point

    by oppup 17 hours ago
    reppeptgs reppeptgs 16 hours ago Flag

    Ok, I get it. Thanks for taking the time to explain the motivation behind your post.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday Report 26 July, 2014

    by reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 8:49 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 27, 2014 6:47 AM Flag

    You are so entitled to feel this way, Frank! We are so close now. As one of the truly senior shareholders of AVNR, I certainly hope you are rewarded for your patience in this investment soon.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    5 stars, Winkles. Bravo!!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday Report 26 July, 2014

    by reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 8:49 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Maybe it's a corollary to Murphy's Law, but whenever I buy a stock, it always seems to go down, at least at first.

    That might happen on your $5.39 purchase, Kel, but in 6 months, it will make you feel brilliant. Have a great weekend.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday Report 26 July, 2014

    by reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 8:49 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Yes, the waiting period is now a lot shorter. Perhaps because we are so close to our goal, it just SEEMS longer. As if the very seconds were stretched. I'm sure there's some solid psychological research on this somewhere, but I'm not THAT interested.

    I always enjoy your sense of humour. It's a pleasure having you in the bunker.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nothing to worry about

    by yi71 Jul 25, 2014 3:34 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 26, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    I couldn't agree with you more, yi71. Take a look at my Saturday Report. We're singing from the same sheet of music.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Everything in moderation. How many times have we heard this wisdom? Today I suggest we apply it to following our favorite stock. Men at Work will set the tone for us:

    /watch?v=jN7AFA_95XA

    AVNR made it 3 red weeks in a row (woo-HOO!), losing 17 cents (3.15%) to $5.22. The NASDAQ gained 0.4%, raising its YTD gain to 6.5%. The biotech world was green. The BTK gained 0.84%, while the IBB gained 1.46%. The XBI stood out, gaining 5.34%. YTD, AVNR is still up 55.4%. Last July 25, the stock closed at $4.70. YOY, AVNR’s gain stands at 11.1% (down from 36.4% three weeks ago).

    Here are the LOW prices for this week:

    Monday: 5.28
    Tuesday: 5.25
    Weds: 5.30
    Thurs: 5.26
    Friday: 5.13

    And here are the lows from last week:

    5.62
    5.45
    5.355
    5.16
    5.17

    Here’s the theme: keep your tin hats at the ready, my long friends. Things might get a little dicey around here for a while. But it won’t last forever.

    The company is doing very well. Monday, the FDA accepted a trial of AVP-786 for major depressive disorders. That’s immense. The company’s second generation formula—the one with unquestioned patent protection—is going into a brand new category of patients. Market reaction: down 7 cents.

    Friday, the pill count was higher than last week’s record number. No pullback--higher. Also immense. For which the stock lost 5 cents.

    Things don’t look great on the technical front. I have mentioned $5.28 as a good support level. Tuesday the stock closed right there, and then bounced back 8 cents Wednesday. But Thursday it closed at $5.27. Uh-oh.

    The only glimmer in this is the selling has not been backed by volume. Thursday’s volume was 954k. Yawn.

    So the stock price might not help our self-esteem for a while. My suggestion: don’t watch it too closely. My prescription: this song by ELO. It’s just hard to stay depressed with it in the background. And we WILL get through this with flying colors.

    /watch?v=1LLJ5sx36bk

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What we are sitting on is...

    by outrage240 Jul 21, 2014 1:23 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 22, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    You're just trying to make me feel better, Kel.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What we are sitting on is...

    by outrage240 Jul 21, 2014 1:23 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 22, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    You're absolutely right, justlen1. With the internet literally at my fingertips, i was too lazy to look up the actual verse.

    My only defense is that the verses in the song are very similar. Mr. Stills must have been listening to a lot of John Lennon when he wrote it.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What we are sitting on is...

    by outrage240 Jul 21, 2014 1:23 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 21, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    It starts when you're always afraid. Step out of line, the Man comes, and takes you a-way!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Down .07cents on low volume while more good news.

    by gmnlrr Jul 21, 2014 4:10 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 21, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    The market is showing an impressive ability to ignore good news.

    I mean, AVP-786--the next generation--is being tested for major depressive disorders? That's a gigantic market! For the company's troubles, I think the stock stayed green until 10:01.

    I am well aware that the market does not act logically. But this is pushing the envelope.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    bipolar II and bipolar NOS

    by neuronrancher Jul 18, 2014 11:08 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 19, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    I didn't see this thread yesterday. Sure glad to see it now.

    There may be a reason this is a little under the radar. Treatment for bipolar diseases may be beyond the license the company has from a related company that includes the founders of this medication like Dr. Smith. So this may be a little more complicated than it seems. But I think in the end, the parties will figure out that there's plenty of pie to spread around, and ultimately all of the beneficial uses of Dex/Q will be available to the patient population.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • What a week. AVNR took a couple hits and came out…standing. Here’s Sir Elton.

    /watch?v=5JfvAPZGjds

    AVNR made it two red weeks in a row, this time losing 37 cents (6.42%), closing at $5.39. The NASDAQ managed a gain of 0.4%, raising its YTD gain to 6.1%. The biotech world was red, and not just by a little. The BTK lost 2.57%, while the IBB lost 2.5%. The XBI was hit hardest for the second straight week, losing 5.43%. YTD, AVNR is still up 60.4%. Last July 18, the stock closed at $4.63. YOY, AVNR’s gain stands at 16.4% (down from 36.4% two weeks ago).

    Here are the LOW prices for this week:

    Monday: 5.62
    Tuesday: 5.45
    Weds: 5.355
    Thurs: 5.16
    Friday: 5.17

    And here are the lows from last week:

    5.65
    5.34
    5.32
    5.38
    5.56

    This was a weird, eventful week. Monday the stock closed at $5.84, the highest close since the yearly high of $6.00. Tuesday, the Fed Chair decided to make a general statement that small cap biotechs are overvalued. That’s all it took—we lost 6.34% that day.

    Weds. we were still reeling from the Fed’s gratuitous slap. And Thursday, even if the stock WANTED to go green, more events came up. First the horrible downing of a passenger plane, then, just before the close, the offensive in Gaza. Markets don’t like uncertainty. We had a bunch that day.

    But Friday the market recovered some, and AVNR did its part. While the NAS gained 1.57%, Avanir gained 4.05%. I’ll take it.

    There was great news, which the stock didn’t benefit from. Weds. the company announced data on Alzheimer’s patients from the PRISM 2 study. Turns out N. significantly improves their quality of life. How about that! Friday, record sales numbers are reported. Record by a wide margin, I might add.

    The stock is showing better resilience than ever, and it’s because the company’s underlying story is getting more and more impressive. Yes, we will have red weeks. But I think the green weeks will outnumber the red by a wide margin now.

    Here's our last song:

    /watch?v=PLiMy4NaSKc

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 17, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I noted the QOL yesterday, and did not get around to posting about it. I'm glad you brought it up, TS. If only there was a large patient base with ALZ. Oh, wait. There IS.

    In addition, I note that 77.8% of patients/caregivers found themselves to be much or very improved (PGIC, while 79.3% of the clinicians rated their patents as much or very improved (CGIC).

    The Yellen hangover won't last forever. Some funds are getting bargains now. WHEN this little trough bottoms out, the stock price will snap back with a vengeance. This is most encouraging data.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    After the dust clears , it will close green today ( :

    by gmnlrr Jul 14, 2014 10:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 14, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    Good call! Things started getting happier around 2:00. Nice surprise.

    I think the stock just missed a recent high close. My notes show $5.84 as the highest close since the 52-week closing high of $6.00. We were at $5.85 just before the bell, but fell to $5.84 at the bell.

    Still, I'm not complaining.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Neurological diseases on the rise

    by theefalcon Jul 14, 2014 7:28 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 14, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Tea actually sounds wonderful, my friend. Around here, they're expecting the clouds to open up about mid-afternoon. So I don't think enjoying the garden is in the cards for me today.

    SP

    P.S. The stock seems to have taken a small jump up as of 2:00 eastern time here. Fingers crossed!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Neurological diseases on the rise

    by theefalcon Jul 14, 2014 7:28 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 14, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    This is only good news if you happen to be long the company that holds the rights to sell the "aspirin for neurology". Oh wait--that's us! Thank you for this information, Sir F.

    Meanwhile, here's a shout out to horcents--glad things are looking a bit brighter for your prognosis! Wonderful news!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs by reppeptgs Jul 13, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    Congratulations on German's strong win today!

    I'm sure you're not at your computer right now, but when you see this (perhaps after you've called in sick tomorrow!), you'll see it soon enough.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday Report 12 July, 2014

    by reppeptgs Jul 12, 2014 8:54 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jul 12, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Thanks to you as well, Sr. Falconi! I love your selection--brilliant!

    After all the years of ups and downs (mostly downs) with this stock, I find it a little hard to say "every little thing's gonna be all right" without reservation. I'm too conditioned to worry about where the next infestation will break out in the woodpile.

    But I'll work on getting used to the notion that the worst of the hard times may indeed be over.

    Enjoy your Saturday evening and Sunday, my friend.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

AVNR
5.21Jul 31 3:59 PMEDT

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