You are so entitled to feel this way, Frank! We are so close now. As one of the truly senior shareholders of AVNR, I certainly hope you are rewarded for your patience in this investment soon.
Maybe it's a corollary to Murphy's Law, but whenever I buy a stock, it always seems to go down, at least at first.
That might happen on your $5.39 purchase, Kel, but in 6 months, it will make you feel brilliant. Have a great weekend.
Yes, the waiting period is now a lot shorter. Perhaps because we are so close to our goal, it just SEEMS longer. As if the very seconds were stretched. I'm sure there's some solid psychological research on this somewhere, but I'm not THAT interested.
I always enjoy your sense of humour. It's a pleasure having you in the bunker.
I couldn't agree with you more, yi71. Take a look at my Saturday Report. We're singing from the same sheet of music.
Everything in moderation. How many times have we heard this wisdom? Today I suggest we apply it to following our favorite stock. Men at Work will set the tone for us:
AVNR made it 3 red weeks in a row (woo-HOO!), losing 17 cents (3.15%) to $5.22. The NASDAQ gained 0.4%, raising its YTD gain to 6.5%. The biotech world was green. The BTK gained 0.84%, while the IBB gained 1.46%. The XBI stood out, gaining 5.34%. YTD, AVNR is still up 55.4%. Last July 25, the stock closed at $4.70. YOY, AVNR’s gain stands at 11.1% (down from 36.4% three weeks ago).
Here are the LOW prices for this week:
And here are the lows from last week:
Here’s the theme: keep your tin hats at the ready, my long friends. Things might get a little dicey around here for a while. But it won’t last forever.
The company is doing very well. Monday, the FDA accepted a trial of AVP-786 for major depressive disorders. That’s immense. The company’s second generation formula—the one with unquestioned patent protection—is going into a brand new category of patients. Market reaction: down 7 cents.
Friday, the pill count was higher than last week’s record number. No pullback--higher. Also immense. For which the stock lost 5 cents.
Things don’t look great on the technical front. I have mentioned $5.28 as a good support level. Tuesday the stock closed right there, and then bounced back 8 cents Wednesday. But Thursday it closed at $5.27. Uh-oh.
The only glimmer in this is the selling has not been backed by volume. Thursday’s volume was 954k. Yawn.
So the stock price might not help our self-esteem for a while. My suggestion: don’t watch it too closely. My prescription: this song by ELO. It’s just hard to stay depressed with it in the background. And we WILL get through this with flying colors.
You're absolutely right, justlen1. With the internet literally at my fingertips, i was too lazy to look up the actual verse.
My only defense is that the verses in the song are very similar. Mr. Stills must have been listening to a lot of John Lennon when he wrote it.
The market is showing an impressive ability to ignore good news.
I mean, AVP-786--the next generation--is being tested for major depressive disorders? That's a gigantic market! For the company's troubles, I think the stock stayed green until 10:01.
I am well aware that the market does not act logically. But this is pushing the envelope.
I didn't see this thread yesterday. Sure glad to see it now.
There may be a reason this is a little under the radar. Treatment for bipolar diseases may be beyond the license the company has from a related company that includes the founders of this medication like Dr. Smith. So this may be a little more complicated than it seems. But I think in the end, the parties will figure out that there's plenty of pie to spread around, and ultimately all of the beneficial uses of Dex/Q will be available to the patient population.
What a week. AVNR took a couple hits and came out…standing. Here’s Sir Elton.
AVNR made it two red weeks in a row, this time losing 37 cents (6.42%), closing at $5.39. The NASDAQ managed a gain of 0.4%, raising its YTD gain to 6.1%. The biotech world was red, and not just by a little. The BTK lost 2.57%, while the IBB lost 2.5%. The XBI was hit hardest for the second straight week, losing 5.43%. YTD, AVNR is still up 60.4%. Last July 18, the stock closed at $4.63. YOY, AVNR’s gain stands at 16.4% (down from 36.4% two weeks ago).
Here are the LOW prices for this week:
And here are the lows from last week:
This was a weird, eventful week. Monday the stock closed at $5.84, the highest close since the yearly high of $6.00. Tuesday, the Fed Chair decided to make a general statement that small cap biotechs are overvalued. That’s all it took—we lost 6.34% that day.
Weds. we were still reeling from the Fed’s gratuitous slap. And Thursday, even if the stock WANTED to go green, more events came up. First the horrible downing of a passenger plane, then, just before the close, the offensive in Gaza. Markets don’t like uncertainty. We had a bunch that day.
But Friday the market recovered some, and AVNR did its part. While the NAS gained 1.57%, Avanir gained 4.05%. I’ll take it.
There was great news, which the stock didn’t benefit from. Weds. the company announced data on Alzheimer’s patients from the PRISM 2 study. Turns out N. significantly improves their quality of life. How about that! Friday, record sales numbers are reported. Record by a wide margin, I might add.
The stock is showing better resilience than ever, and it’s because the company’s underlying story is getting more and more impressive. Yes, we will have red weeks. But I think the green weeks will outnumber the red by a wide margin now.
Here's our last song:
I noted the QOL yesterday, and did not get around to posting about it. I'm glad you brought it up, TS. If only there was a large patient base with ALZ. Oh, wait. There IS.
In addition, I note that 77.8% of patients/caregivers found themselves to be much or very improved (PGIC, while 79.3% of the clinicians rated their patents as much or very improved (CGIC).
The Yellen hangover won't last forever. Some funds are getting bargains now. WHEN this little trough bottoms out, the stock price will snap back with a vengeance. This is most encouraging data.
Good call! Things started getting happier around 2:00. Nice surprise.
I think the stock just missed a recent high close. My notes show $5.84 as the highest close since the 52-week closing high of $6.00. We were at $5.85 just before the bell, but fell to $5.84 at the bell.
Still, I'm not complaining.
Tea actually sounds wonderful, my friend. Around here, they're expecting the clouds to open up about mid-afternoon. So I don't think enjoying the garden is in the cards for me today.
P.S. The stock seems to have taken a small jump up as of 2:00 eastern time here. Fingers crossed!
This is only good news if you happen to be long the company that holds the rights to sell the "aspirin for neurology". Oh wait--that's us! Thank you for this information, Sir F.
Meanwhile, here's a shout out to horcents--glad things are looking a bit brighter for your prognosis! Wonderful news!
Congratulations on German's strong win today!
I'm sure you're not at your computer right now, but when you see this (perhaps after you've called in sick tomorrow!), you'll see it soon enough.
Thanks to you as well, Sr. Falconi! I love your selection--brilliant!
After all the years of ups and downs (mostly downs) with this stock, I find it a little hard to say "every little thing's gonna be all right" without reservation. I'm too conditioned to worry about where the next infestation will break out in the woodpile.
But I'll work on getting used to the notion that the worst of the hard times may indeed be over.
Enjoy your Saturday evening and Sunday, my friend.