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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

reppeptgs 77 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Saturday IDRA 25 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 25, 2016 7:05 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs 12 hours ago Flag

    It's amazing how short our memories are, CC. And the market seems to make us try to forget everything and trade on emotion.

    But longs need to buy when our stocks are hurting, and frankly, sell when everyone seems to want in. But we fight human nature all the way.

    Great purchase. Remember to be proud of yourself in December.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday IDRA 25 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 25, 2016 7:05 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs 13 hours ago Flag

    You are a much braver trader than I, doji! When I do trading shares, it's right around 5% of my holdings in a given stock.

    1/3 is too rich for me. A tip of the hat to you.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday IDRA 25 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 25, 2016 7:13 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 25, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    I'm glad. Thank you for the note.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This was the first song that came to mind in thinking of a musical theme for the week. Not a good sign.

    /watch?v=IPI8RHfL5UY

    Let’s look at the numbers: IDRA seems to be in a see-saw pattern these days. Red this week; it was green last week and red the week before. This week saw (no pun!) a loss of 6 cents (3.89%) to close at $1.48. YTD is now down 52.1%

    The market and sector were doing just fine before they got startled. The NAS ended down 1.92% (its YTD loss is 5.98%). My bio indicators had their comeback spoiled and ended red for a third straight week: the BTK lost 2.52%. The IBB lost 2.86%, while the XBI fell 2.84%. The broader health care XLV again came out relatively unscathed, dropping 1.09%.

    On 6/24/15, IDRA closed at $3.51. Its YOY loss is now 57.8%. This is actually an improvement over last week?!

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M 1.51-1.64
    T 1.51-1.63
    W 1.47-1.55
    TH 1.48-1.55
    F 1.41-1.51

    And from last week:

    M 1.44-1.54
    T 1.40-1.49
    W 1.43-1.52
    TH 1.40-1.72
    F 1.51-1.61

    So…the Brexit happened. I suppose you’ve heard by now. Seems to have had an effect on the market.

    But not that much of an effect on IDRA, relatively. Today it lost 3.27%, which is better than almost all of the 20 or so stocks I follow. And it didn’t plummet; the low of $1.41 was not as low as the $1.40 it’s hit twice in the past two weeks.

    Whenever I make a purchase, I obsess about it for a few days, hoping I timed it right. Tuesday, I added some IDRA at $1.51. All things considered, ending the week at $1.48 isn’t bad.

    I still feel like IDRA is poised to climb. Maybe all that’s needed is a little news. If the market insists on slumping, though, it will be difficult to stem the tide indefinitely (without news).

    The thing is, life goes on. It always does. And it’s the weekend. Cheers, friends!

    /watch?v=5JlnFRADMNA

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This was the first song that came to mind in thinking of a musical theme for the week. Not a good sign.

    /watch?v=IPI8RHfL5UY

    Let’s look at the numbers. SPPI’s streak of red weeks has hit three. It managed two green days, one day that ended even, and only one red day as of Thursday. Then there was this election in another country. The stock closed at $6.47, a loss of 29 cents or 4.29%. YTD, the stock is 7.3%. That’s down from a gain of 12.1% last week.

    The market and sector were doing just fine before they got startled. The NAS ended down 1.92% (its YTD loss is 5.98%). My bio indicators had their comeback spoiled and ended red for a third week: the BTK lost 2.52%. The IBB lost 2.86%, while the XBI fell 2.84%. The broader health care XLV again came out relatively unscathed, dropping 1.09%.

    On 6/11/15, SPPI closed at $7.05. This brings the YOY result to a loss of 8.23%. I can’t recall the last time this was a negative figure.

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M 6.70-6.86
    T 6.69-6.81
    W 6.71-6.89
    TH 6.79-6.89
    F 6.40-6.81

    And from last week:

    M 6.87-7.02
    T 6.69-6.92
    W 6.80-6.93
    TH 6.65-6.90
    F 6.75-6.87

    So…the Brexit happened. I suppose you’ve heard by now. Seems to have had an effect on the market.

    As the stock price has sagged of late, I’ve been watching SPPI for a while with an eye to add a bit. Back on May 5, the stock hit a low of $6.40. I was thinking if the stock revisited that level, I’d make a purchase. So…surprising election; market plummets; and guess where SPPI goes? Exactly $6.40.

    I just don’t think that’s a coincidence. So, fool that I am, I made a purchase today at $6.51.

    All the experts are on TV saying “don’t buy today”. But a) I’m stubborn; and b) it’s hard to believe the fortunes of SPPI will be seriously impacted by Britain’s exit from the EU. Next week I’ll either crow or eat crow.

    The thing is, life goes on. It always does. And it’s the weekend. Cheers, friends!

    /watch?v=5JlnFRADMNA

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 25, 2016 6:58 AM Flag

    You can't catch a break around here, can you STS?

    I make note of the YTD score in my Saturday missive, as you may know. 7.3% to the positive is better than a poke in the eye. Considering the stock is on a 3-week losing streak, it might seem we're due for a reversal. Which will make that score all the more impressive.

    Off to post my Saturday thing. You have a good day.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sunday IDRA 19 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 19, 2016 8:03 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 21, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    Sorry for my delay in response, Tursta. George had the most profound lyrics. Starting as a Moptop with The Inner Light, he was consistent in bringing depth to his lyrics. If you haven't had a chance, take a look and listen to The Rising Sun, off his last album.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sunday IDRA 19 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 19, 2016 8:03 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 21, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    Thanks, Jackie. I just added to my position at $1.51.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recently, Ed Sheeran has been accused of copying someone else’s song with his song “Photograph”. It’s not the first time that’s happened. Remember My Sweet Lord? George Harrison had to pay big money due to a charge that he copied He’s So Fine. But George continued to “own” the song in a musical sense.

    /watch?v=Vx7OSbXUoiU

    Let’s look at the numbers: After losing 7 cents last week, IDRA gained back 4 cents (2.67%) to close at $1.54. I liked the way things looked this week (more below). YTD is back in my local paper! The bad news is it’s still a loss of 50.2%

    The market and sector struggled this week. The NAS was down 1.92% (its YTD loss is 4.14%). My bio indicators were bright red for a second week: the BTK lost 4.03%. The IBB again performed the worst, losing 4.19%, while the XBI fell 4.13%. The broader health care XLV was not bruised as badly, sliding 2.4%.

    On 6/18/15, IDRA closed at $3.80. Its YOY loss is now 59.5%. This comparison was tougher by 21 cents this week.

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M 1.44-1.54
    T 1.40-1.49
    W 1.43-1.52
    TH 1.40-1.72
    F 1.51-1.61

    And from last week:

    M 1.53-1.65
    T 1.56-1.63
    W 1.56-1.61
    TH 1.55-1.60
    F 1.50-1.61

    All things considered, I think IDRA is doing all right these days. In fact, I think it might have turned a corner.

    Thursday was a good day. No news, but the stock popped up in the morning, on strong volume. The volume continued all day—as I recall it ended at about 5 times the 10-day average. And the stock gained 8.33%, which I’ll take.

    This was achieved on a day when the sector was basically even (the IBB was down .19% while the XBI was up .22%).

    So the stock goes up on high volume with no news. Hmm. How can that be a bad thing for a long?

    I’ve been waiting to add down here. Now I think I’m running out of time. Provided there isn’t some upheaval in the market, I think the stock goes up from here.

    Happy Father’s Day!

    Here are Harrison and Clapton:

    /watch?v=oDs2Bkq6UU4

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The no reason rally

    by oilup12345 Jun 16, 2016 2:54 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 16, 2016 4:21 PM Flag

    2.1 million shares traded on the day, aka FIVE TIMES the daily average over the past 10 days (per E-Trade). Like Junkdna said, we may never know why. But this is not insignificant.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 11, 2016 8:08 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 11, 2016 9:35 AM Flag

    Thanks for the thought, STS. There have been times I've wished I'd set a stop loss.

    But I've also seen stops taken out, sometimes on something as flimsy as a rumor. For me it's a tough question.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We longs have been bruised this week. Let’s start with something upbeat.

    /watch?v=1c5pgo6zU10

    Let’s look at the numbers: After 4 green weeks in a row, IDRA gave back 7 cents (4.46%) to close at $1.50. Over the past two weeks, the stock has gained a penny.

    The week's lackluster results came with a backdrop of an underperforming sector. The NAS was down 0.97% (its YTD loss is 2.25%). My bio indicators were all red: the BTK lost 3.9%. The IBB performed the worst, losing 5.03%, and the XBI fell 4.18%. The broader health care XLV was relatively unscathed, dropping 0.7%.

    On 6/11/15, IDRA closed at $3.59. Its YOY loss is now 58.2%.

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M 1.53-1.65
    T 1.56-1.63
    W 1.56-1.61
    TH 1.55-1.60
    F 1.50-1.61

    And from last week:

    M Holiday
    T 1.48-1.61
    W 1.55-1.60
    TH 1.58-1.68
    F 1.55-1.67

    After 4 straight green weeks, IDRA mostly held its own. In fact, as of the close on Thursday, the stock was even for the week. But the sector was solidly red Friday, and the stock could not buck the tide.

    Thursday, Eduardo posted a note about trying to keep politics off the board. He’s one of my favorites here, and I appreciate his presence and perspective.

    I will say only this: the market does not like uncertainty, and politics can be a significant source of uncertainty.

    I’m sure traders are aware of the imminent Brexit vote, as Rich points out, as well as our presidential election. Speaking of which, remember when the Bush/Gore race was tied up in court? What happened to the market? It went down every day until the election was resolved.

    Politics might not be "relevant", but they sure have an effect on the market.

    In the 60’s, there was kind of a musical fork in the road. It seemed like you were either a Beatles or Stones fan. Clearly, I’m a fan of the mop tops. But listen to this live recording of Under My Thumb from 1981. I think the guitar work is brilliant. Oh, and turn it up for full effect.

    /watch?v=8elDeaoDuMo

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We longs have been bruised this week. Let’s start with something upbeat.

    /watch?v=1c5pgo6zU10

    Let’s look at the numbers. SPPI had a lousy week. For the first time since the first week in January, it was red every day, closing at $6.94 with a loss of 40 cents or 5.45%. YTD, the stock is still up 15.1%, so it’s not time for panic.

    These lackluster results came with a backdrop of an underperforming sector. The NAS was down 0.97% (its YTD loss is 2.25%). My bio indicators were all red: the BTK lost 3.9%. The IBB performed the worst, losing 5.03%, and the XBI fell 4.18%. The broader health care XLV was relatively unscathed, dropping 0.7%.

    On 6/11/15, SPPI closed at $6.78. This brings the YOY gain down to 2.2% (from 21.8% two weeks ago).

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M 7.17-7.34
    T 7.13-7.28
    W 7.11-7.24
    TH 6.95-7.12
    F 6.82-6.98

    And from last week:

    M Holiday
    T 7.40-7.52
    W 7.44-7.55
    TH 7.47-7.54
    F 7.27-7.54

    Last week, I said it looked like SPPI was consolidating, and that if the stock pulled back, I might add to my position.

    The stock did pull back. And true to my word, I added on Wednesday morning at $7.19. And of course, the stock went on to drop for the rest of that session and the next two.

    This is called the story of my investing life. It seems I’m always buying a stock on the way down.

    But there’s always hope. I’m looking to add to my positions in KERX and IDRA. So far I’ve been sitting on my dry powder. We’ll SEE if I have the patience to do better with those purchases. I can’t time the bottom—I’m resigned to that. But it would be nice to buy on the way up for a change.

    In the 60’s, there was kind of a musical fork in the road. It seemed like you were either a Beatles or Stones fan. Clearly, I’m a fan of the mop tops. But listen to this live recording of Under My Thumb from 1981. I think the guitar work is brilliant. Oh, and turn it up for full effect.

    /watch?v=8elDeaoDuMo

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 10, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    I don't know what we'll get. It probably depends somewhat on the number and quantity of claims. I consider anything I get a bonus.

    I completely agree that the ones who truly benefit from class actions are the lawyers for the class.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 9, 2016 8:15 AM Flag

    Mine went out in the mail yesterday, a WHOLE DAY before the deadline!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the Nice Rally Today?

    by reppeptgs Jun 7, 2016 4:46 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 8, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    Good points.

    I was also thinking that LUV had done some hedging in its oil purchases of late, in essence betting that the price of oil would rise. Looks like that was a good call.

    Today, we see the May passenger traffic rose 6.4%. Looks like another green day here.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Something seems to have happened in the first few minutes of trading, because the stock just shot straight up. Does anyone know of any reason why this might have happened?

    Sarge

    Disclosure: I have a small, long position in LUV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday IDRA 4 June, 2016

    by reppeptgs Jun 4, 2016 8:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Jun 6, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    Are you referring to the album "JT" from about 1977? I agree. That was ALL the rage for a year when it came out. It captured a lot of the feel of LA in the late 70's. The songs showed a remarkable range of musical style and message. Looking back, it was one of his very greatest.

    SP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is the great original JT. One could have a worse motto than this song:

    /watch?v=vfWQS5fWxxU

    Let’s look at the numbers: IDRA managed to find itself green for the 4th week in a row, gaining 8 cents (5.37%) to close at $1.57. The YTD loss edged down from 51.8% to…something. My local paper didn’t publish IDRA’s YTD score today. Typical.

    This was a weird week to characterize. The DOW was down 0.37%; the NAS rose just 0.18% (its YTD loss is down to 1.3%). My bio indicators were firmly green for a second straight week: the BTK gained 2.71%. The IBB rose 2.02%, and the XBI, outdone for once, gained 2.21%. The broader health care XLV had a second straight big week (for it), gaining 1.56%.

    On 6/4/15, IDRA closed at $3.49. Its YOY loss is now 55%.

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M Holiday
    T 1.48-1.61
    W 1.55-1.60
    TH 1.58-1.68
    F 1.55-1.67

    And from last week:

    M 1.48-1.57
    T 1.54-1.63
    W 1.55-1.63
    TH 1.48-1.57
    F 1.47-1.55

    You know what I did yesterday morning before trading began? I looked at my IRA account’s performance. Mind you, my IDRA returns are not exactly a source of pride yet. But SPPI has been chugging along, and another of my holdings, KERX, had a very nice week.

    I felt good about my portfolio.

    So I should have known. WhenEVER I start getting some self esteem from my stocks, I should get out my umbrella. Because it’s going to come down.

    To be honest, IDRA may be due for a little pullback. Since a close of $1.32 on May 12, the stock has gained 18.9%. And the low that week was $1.19, which was $31.9% ago. People make a lot of money flipping stocks at these levels. They may want to take a profit at some point.

    But keep the faith. If it dips, I’m a buyer.

    The closing song today is not a subtle message. It’s just a beautiful song with a deft arrangement that I hope you enjoy.

    /watch?v=HBKcAc8VpIw

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is the great original JT. One could have a worse motto than this song:

    /watch?v=vfWQS5fWxxU

    Let’s look at the numbers. SPPI was chugging along just fine until Friday. After 3 green days, the stock got hit for a 2.4% loss, and the stock closed down 9 cents or 1.21% for the week. Closing price was $7.34. Sorry, but the YTD gain listed by my newspaper makes no sense (it increased in a week where the stock was down?), so I won’t print it.

    This was a weird week to characterize. The DOW was down 0.37%; the NAS rose just 0.18% (its YTD loss is down to 1.3%). My bio indicators were firmly green for a second straight week: the BTK gained 2.71%. The IBB rose 2.02%, and the XBI, outdone for once, gained 2.21%. The broader health care XLV had a second straight big week (for it), gaining 1.56%.

    On 5/28/15, SPPI closed at $6.74. This brings the YOY gain down to 8.9%, from 21.8% last week.

    Here are the daily ranges for the week:

    M Holiday
    T 7.40-7.52
    W 7.44-7.55
    TH 7.47-7.54
    F 7.27-7.54

    And from last week:

    M 7.23-7.36
    T 7.28-7.38
    W 7.38-7.67
    TH 7.41-7.62
    F 7.39-7.55

    I think SPPI is consolidating right now. When you get a chance, look at a 3-month chart. It’s definitely flattened since the gains of a few weeks back. Last week’s high didn’t QUITE get to the level of the high of $7.74 back on April 25.

    I’m not predicting the apocalypse. The stock is just taking a breather. Think of it as a buying opportunity—I know I plan to do some shopping if there’s a little pullback.

    The closing song today is not a subtle message. It’s just a beautiful song with a deft arrangement that I hope you enjoy.

    /watch?v=HBKcAc8VpIw

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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