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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

reppeptgs 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 5:58 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2001
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  • Reply to

    BAD news from FDA

    by yekafena_sharkom Apr 30, 2015 3:01 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 30, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    You just went on my Ignore list. congrats.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 29, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    You're absolutely correct, Joe. Don't know where my brain went.

    Anyway, zeroes are worth nothing. Dropping a couple can't matter that much!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Yes, you're reading it right, my friend. Only this company has sales of around $2 million per year. Something we never saw with our other stock.

    And yes, AF is not a friend to this stock, either.

    The game plays on.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 7:32 AM Flag

    Hey there, Hankster! Sunday works. Maybe I should re-name my epistle the "Weekend Update". No, that's been taken.

    I have a little cash that's earmarked for SPPI. Unfortunately, there are ample buying opportunities around here.

    Until there are not. And that day will come.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 25 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 25, 2015 9:19 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 27, 2015 7:29 AM Flag

    It's so good to hear from you, dairyman! I do hope you and yours are well.

    This is an excellent company. The stock, however, has not caught up with the value, in my opinion. Kind of reminds me of an investment we used to share.

    If you have questions, I'll try and answer, but also, this is a most helpful board with some very educated posters.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Here’s one from an old friend. It’s today’s message, in musical form. Here’s Mr. Starkey:

    /watch?v=bvEexTomE1I

    This week, SPPI gained 13 cents or 2.17% to $6.10. YTD, it has lost 12% (2 weeks ago, this figure was 13.5%). The NAS gained 3.3%; its YTD gain is now up to 7.5%. The bio indexes were all green: the BTK gained 1.1%; the IBB gained 2%; and the XBI rose 1.3%.

    Last April 24, the stock closed at $7.22. This gives the stock a YOY loss of 15.5%.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.83-6.00
    T 5.93-6.03
    W 5.89-6.07
    TH 5.93-6.04
    F 6.01-6.185

    And last week:

    M 5.96-6.115
    T 6.00-6.08
    W 6.00-6.17
    TH 6.05-6.15
    F 5.90-6.10

    2 weeks ago when I last reported (sorry for last week), the stock had just achieved a 52-week low at $5.58. That next week, I had hopes the stock had bottomed, and was going to make progress. Wrong.

    We’ve been struggling with the $6.00 barrier. Last week, the price was above $6.00 for three days. But last Friday things went downhill. Yesterday was the first time the stock didn’t trade below $6 in a week.

    This week was pretty respectable on stock performance, but with pathetic volume. As much as I’d like to be encouraged, I’m not. We’re range bound, on the top at about $6.46. We reached a low two weeks ago. Will we re-test that low? I wouldn’t rule it out.

    We have a PDUFA date on CE-Melphalan of October 23. If NOTHING else, bringing a sixth drug to market (one that significantly lessens toxicity in the patient), will get some attention.

    But I don’t think we know everything that’s in store for this company. Time is most definitely on our side here. If it goes down to even the $5.70’s again, I have to be a buyer.

    To close, I have the original version of our opening song. It’s by George Harrison. The thing is, Ringo has writer’s credit on the song. But this version sounds less polished—like an earlier version. I suspect George gave Ringo both song and credit.

    This may take a while.

    /watch?v=4p5yzdCa2GE

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 14, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Great to see you too, outrage240!

    In fact, the only thing I'm "outraged" about is that you would think I wouldn't remember you.

    Yes, we've found another bunker, with another thriving wood pile. But here, there are FIVE products on the market with a 6th due this year. $200 million annual run rate. And the best part is the pipeline.

    So I'm really glad you're in this investment. I think we'll do well. All that's required is some patience. And we're experts at that.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 14, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    Precisely, markbuti. We individual investors are like the enlisted in the service. We're often overlooked due to the high profile "brass" such as Baker Bros, etc. But the individual is the one working, by means of wits and his or her own resources, to participate in the American Dream.

    And we need to stick together. So it's terrific that we have a message board such as this where we can commiserate--and occasionally celebrate--over our mutual investment.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 13, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    Good evening, Sir F, and I do trust all is well for you and yours.

    It Don't Come Easy says it all! Love the song, as you know. Maybe I'll share it soon--one version by Ringo, and the "original" by George.

    Your analysis of the short interest was most insightful the last time around. One might even say prophetic. It would be most interesting to see what tale the short numbers tell in this stock.

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 11 April, 2015

    by reppeptgs Apr 11, 2015 11:31 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 13, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Hey Ron--great to hear from you, and I hope you are doing well.

    Another Avanir. Could be worse. Let's just hope the payoff on this one comes a LITTLE faster.

    Glad you got in. Sounds like your timing was pretty good!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Longs, we do not have it easy. The road is anything but clear as we navigate this investment. So I’ve invited the Queen of Soul to give us perspective:

    /watch?v=XESo86WgOrE

    Last week, SPPI gained 3 cents or 0.5% to $6.00. YTD, it has lost 13.5%. The NAS gained 2.2%; its YTD gain is up to 5.5%. The bio indexes all tallied significant gains: the BTK gained 3.8%; the IBB gained 5.2%; and the XBI rose 4.2%. This is a nice bounce back after some lean weeks in the sector.

    YTD, SPPI is down 13.4%. Last April 11, the stock closed at $6.79. Since this figure was much higher last week, the YOY comparison has improved to a loss of 11.6%. If the stock does not rise in the next weeks, this comparison will get progressively worse.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.83-5.98
    T 5.86-6.08
    W 5.58-5.93 (52-week low)
    TH 5.79-5.96
    F 5.92-6.075

    And the ranges from last week:

    M 5.94-6.11
    T 5.99-6.16
    W 5.86-6.02
    TH 5.92-6.13
    F Holiday

    The tape doesn’t lie. The stock got beat up last week. When news came out that the company’s motion for a temporary stay of production by Sandoz was denied, the stock hit a 52-week low. This is partially my fault; I had added a few shares 2 days prior.

    But here’s the thing. It was mentioned this week: this is the most undervalued stock in its sector. The story, objectively, defies rational explanation.

    So if the stock price revisits that low, I’ll probably add again. Because this story will change.

    My handle here, “Sarge”, is not a reference to a prior military career (though if I were to serve, I’d relate more to the enlisted than the brass). Rather, it refers to being a Beatles fan. “reppeptgs” is Sgt. Pepper spelled backwards.

    Everything comes back to the Boys for me. So today, I encourage my fellow longs to hold on to your shares and add if you can. If you sell now, you’ll be singing the following song. I hope that doesn’t happen.

    /watch?v=qhE_9WGujyI

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by joesolomon333 Apr 10, 2015 4:10 PM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 10, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    The individual investors are always the last to know. I wish these figures were available sooner!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reppeptgs by reppeptgs Apr 7, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    I've been meaning to take a look at this, and was pleased with what I found.

    SPPI currently has a market cap of $385 million. As of 12/31/14, they had cash of $129 million. Think about that. This company has, in cash alone, over 1/3 the amount of its market cap.

    That fact is enough to help one realize the company is currently undervalued. But...5 drugs on the market, bringing in at least $200 million a year.

    The pipeline, though, is the really exciting thing. A sixth approved medicine, CE-Melphalan, has a PDUFA date of October 23. SPPI-2012 appears to be a consensus blockbuster. And recent acquisition Poziotinib may well be in the same category (according to Barron's, but what do they know?).

    I made some money in AVNR. But the balance sheet for this company is far better. And Avanir sold for $5 billion. Which is 12.98 times the current market cap of SPPI.

    The value is here. It's just a matter of time.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Since Investor Day, SPPI has performed with great consistency. If you like red.

    It’s a little depressing. So I thought I’d start with some great music. Here is an album’s worth of The Doors. Check the second song in—Light My Fire uncut!

    /watch?v=ONqBDz_3wBQ

    Last week, SPPI lost 4 cents or 0.6% to $5.97. YTD, it has lost 13.9%. The NAS lost 0.1% this week; its YTD gain ticked down to 3.2%. The bio indexes were mixed: the BTK lost 2.5%; the IBB lost 0.8%; but the XBI managed a slight gain of 0.3%. Biotech land has not been a very happy place, of late.

    YTD, SPPI is down 13.9%. Last April 4, the stock closed at $7.20. Since this figure was 57 cents higher last week, the YOY comparison has improved to a loss of 17.01%. Yay.

    Here is the stock’s range for each day this week:

    M 5.94-6.11
    T 5.99-6.16
    W 5.86-6.02
    TH 5.92-6.13
    F Holiday

    And the ranges from last week:

    6.02-6.26
    6.10-6.31
    5.89-6.22
    5.81-6.02
    5.88-6.05

    Last week, therefore, was the first week in eons that SPPI has traded with a 5-handle every day.

    That might just change, thanks to the Barron’s article (thanks to gogh9 and todaynotatwork for being the first ones to point it out). SPPI has gotten several initiations of coverage/upgrades, since Friday the 13th. But Barron’s has a longstanding reputation as a respected market observer. Logic says Monday we’ll see a gap up. Recent experience tells us to grab our helmets.

    And the chart is not encouraging. If you don’t believe me, take a look. The one year chart pretty much tells a story. It seems like we need to do some recovering before our days look bright around here more often than not. We need to close above $6.41 before I’ll feel like we're making progress.

    But Barron’s is a milestone. That article told the truth—it was balanced and objective. Eventually the market will realize that. I just won’t guarantee it will be next week.

    To close, here are the Jayhawks with an inspiring song on…perseverance. Our specialty.

    /watch?v=3N8RiTG-ELI

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barron's

    by gogh9 Apr 3, 2015 6:07 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 3, 2015 7:09 AM Flag

    Good morning, gogh9! And isn't this great news to see first thing?

    My only regret is today is a holiday on Wall St.

    Figures.

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SPPI hiring

    by tartiaboy Apr 2, 2015 9:59 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 2, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Good to know, Tartia. Confirmation the company is clicking on all cylinders!

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 28 March, 2015

    by reppeptgs Mar 28, 2015 10:09 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 1, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    Thanks, Hankster! Looks like a bunker is needed for this stock, too.

    I took all the thumbs down as a weird sign that I was rubbing a sore spot or two. Which is gratifying.

    It'll take some real patience to make money on this one. But I think in the end that patience will be well rewarded. Fortunately, we've been tested by the patience-trier of all time. This will be fun.

    My only regret is, with so many AVNR alums here, I won't be able to just play all the old songs!

    SP

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 28 March, 2015

    by reppeptgs Mar 28, 2015 10:09 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Apr 1, 2015 6:32 AM Flag

    Warm greetings from this side of the pond, Sir F! Seeing you here brings a smile to my face.

    The sentiments I expressed...have been earned many times over; no thanks are needed.

    This is quite a company. I believe that some day, the market cap will reflect its worth. This is not the case as of yet.

    In the meantime, I can tell you that the woodpile here is thriving. I started doing my Saturday thing last week and the last I checked, the post had 14 thumbs up and 15 thumbs down.

    Hope you didn't put the tin hat in storage--it's very much needed here. Thanks for the offer of the flask; need I say anything about tea leaves?

    Sarge

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 28 March, 2015

    by reppeptgs Mar 28, 2015 10:09 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Mar 31, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    I am a shareholder. Have been since about 2009. I try to accumulate shares when a stock I like is cheap (in my opinion). Yesterday morning, I added some SPPI at $5.96.

    I am long the stock, and will hold and accumulate indefinitely.

    Clear enough?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Saturday SPPI 28 March, 2015

    by reppeptgs Mar 28, 2015 10:09 AM
    reppeptgs reppeptgs Mar 31, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    I am an individual investor who does his own research. I am not paid a dime for what I post, here or on any other board; nor was I ever paid to post on the AVNR board. No one pays me to do anything regarding the market.

    I follow stocks, and keep track of things. Doing a weekly check-in helps ME keep perspective on the movements of the market and individual stocks.

    If my message offends you, you are welcome to utilize the Ignore feature Yahoo has provided.

    Sincerely,

    Sarge

    Sentiment: Buy

AVNR
16.960.00(0.00%)Jan 12 4:00 PMEST