I think the whole contract with IV formulations, pediatric, and liquid formulations was more like 550 million. and there is some value for both pipelines. Maybe $1 a share for each companies pipelines.
Vaxgen is a good example of why any prediction of a profitability is pure speculation. They had a signed contract with the US government.(SIGA did not) What happened next underscores the uncertainty.
EBS unleashed a smear campaign mobilizing 50 lobbyist.
They instilled doubt in the stabilty of the vaccine. The contract was pulled and the company went bankrupt. Do an internet search using LA Times, Vaxgen and Emergent biosolutions. David Willman of the LA Times killed Vaxgen. Next do a search with David Willman and SIGA.
You guess it- same author was used to attack SIGA and its contract with the US goverment. Point being. Nothing is certain in this space and the chance of any contract being fully executed is like walking through a mine field. Chances are your not going to get through it unscathed.
I would be in favor of a 50/50 split on the first contract with any future sales going to SIGA. If I was SIGA I would offer it and if I was PIP I would take it. Both companies would trade above 5$ a share immediately. At this point each company risks losing it all if its left in the hands of the supreme court.
It is true that both SIGA and PIP saw a huge market for a ST 246 during that time period. The speculation was that a 14-15 million course order was possible but it was by no means in the bag. What could of or did go wrong:
1) Competition- Chimerix passed their 1st animal test in in 2006. Yes SIGA was ahead in primate testing but CMX 001 passed all other animal testing. There was a competitor.
2) US government budget cuts- No guarantee that bioshield was going to be funded.
3) Contract was challenged by Chimerix and successfully reduced.
4) Risk that ST 246 would not pass animal trials
5) Donald Henderson the pioneer of smallpox vaccination slammed the purchase of
of a smallpox antiviral.
6) The price that the US government payed per course was challenged and Claire McClasky called for a congressional investigation. The price wasn't certain.
7) A smallpox vaccine with minimal side effects was being worked on in 2006. There was a chance a vaccine could of been developed that could be given to even immunocompromised and high risk individuals.
8) There was no process for FDA approval to secure a full contract
How can Parsons award an amount that obviously even in 2006 was based on speculation that everything was going to go perfectly. I don't disagree that PIP deserves something for bad faith but assuming a 14 -15 million course order is purely speculating
that there would be no competition, all animal testing would be passed, FDA approval, no budget cuts, no contract challenges, or even the chance that bioshield would still consider it a high tier biological threat in the following years.
I see a 50/50 chance of the decision being overturned. That being said both companies playing dangerous game of Russian Roulette at this point. A settlement would be in the best interest of both companies. I was hedged 3 to 1 in favor of SIGA. Now I'm 1:1.