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The Men's Wearhouse, Inc. Message Board

retailexecutive 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 10:54 AM Member since: Dec 20, 1998
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  • Reply to

    The value is enormous based on the growth

    by fabricone1 Apr 17, 2014 10:47 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Apr 17, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Good call on the cup and handle. Some of the largest long term runs start from this chart pattern. You saw it and guided me well. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Apr 15, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    of your theory on the cup and handle Fabricone 1 . It makes sense and the volume is rising nicely but you say we need to close above $8.88 to establish a breakout . Is that it ? I like the beta factor and I love the PEG ratio and I admit the cup and handle is well formed but I really would like to see your theory tested.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Apr 14, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    to save this company prior to the CG showing up the Chairman was so arrogant that he offered no response and no to follow up calls. Then he lost control of the company . HC let the company bleed out; CG are paper tigers. This is the worst retail business in America but not by much. American Apparel is racing them to the bottom. CEO's , BOD and Chairman who have retired and abdicated their responsibility to the shareholders. I have made a lot of money shorting people like this.Chapter 11 and a delisting are on the horizon here.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Guys ! Do We See $40 Before Earnings ???

    by cat_tracker_2000 Apr 2, 2014 8:24 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Apr 2, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    I am looking for $60 by year end or 60 days after Alibaba event. This is going to be the Big Daddy event of your lifetime. Do not discount MSFT and YHOO doing something this year as well

  • Reply to

    Sell Short

    by zachperonio Mar 25, 2014 11:23 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 31, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    hard to sell short at this level. Anything will drive it back towards 20 fast,

  • Reply to

    Financials

    by rsparker23 Mar 31, 2014 3:13 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 31, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Inflation under 2% and G&A up 4 %. I am really really interested in how they are going to grow gross profit dollars.

  • Reply to

    Wall Street wants to hear from the CEO

    by retailexecutive Mar 27, 2014 1:20 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 28, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Good post. As for the carriage costs this has been a long term problem and imho will remain one for sometime .A percent to sales has been a standard for the better /bigger operators. This is a most difficult challenge for management. They might want to review the Robinson-Patman act to see if the carriers are in violation.

  • Reply to

    Wall Street wants to hear from the CEO

    by retailexecutive Mar 27, 2014 1:20 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 27, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    I agree with your post in a major way but I differ a bit on the distribution center issue.They have developed a paradigm that they are used to ( QVC ) with the execution and resource base of an unprofitable business. I can not imagine what Briggs and Costello would advise this business to do. For that matter what would the CEO of Q ( who they so love that they copy everything they can except great merchandise and wonderful execution ) do if it was his company ? Keith can do more and should be doing more rather than polishing his image ( which is fine ) He should be personally polishing the business plan and execution. I worked for a president who developed stay in touch days where the top executives went and worked in the actual work centers . Picked and filled orders etc. I think they would find answers. I am all for an efficient distribution system but it is far more than a big building. Some innovation would go a long way to making a profit. Someone needs to get an EBITDA poster for his office.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Mar 27, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    I am starting to get an itchy trigger finger. The market timing sucks or I would buy right now. hang on for 32.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Mar 27, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    This baloney of Keith's past irrational exuberance is no reason for him to take the podium. Certainly Ronnie and the gang can script him. No analyst is satisfied no matter how well Bobby and Billy do presenting the same rebaked strategy time after time . They want to know how an investment in this company is going to generate a profit for them. Here is a major clue to management : Tell the street when you will be profitable and what the range of that profit will be and then get it done. From an operational strategy and model perspective this is a sound company. From a sales and marketing strategy it is lacking. From a street confidence level it is lacking. This boils down to leadership.Where is the leadership ? I guess it depends on who we think the leader is . He is like the groundhog. Has not been seen in a couple of years and shows up once a quarter to moderate the conference call. Not good enough. he has talent. I know that. Please go back to work and take charge of this enterprise. If for no other reason than personal greed. Do not borrow money that future earnings will not cover comfortably. make this company profitable on the business that is available. CG was correct in spotting an under managed opportunity. They clearly were not the ones to fix it. The CEO is the one who could fix it if he would challenge himself and the organization and develop a break through strategy and then EXECUTE.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 25, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    to expand distribution so that they can handle more through put at a lower ASP. I am no fan of the high ASP from a marketing point of view but there must be a balance against cost. How effective is the current space utilization ? Sales have grown in units but still has not achieved former highs and gross margin return on investment analysis needs to support any strategy so that the money being spent before the company is profitable . I have not heard a real vision statement from the company in a long time . I suggest they spend some time on that before they spend shareholder money to build a new barn when active management may be enough for now. Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This was an under managed company that Clinton Group spotted. It was and is a terrible retailer without much going for it. Substandard management and a shrinking retail base in a competitive niche. No real edge. The Chairman and CEO were asleep at the wheel. CG spotted this great investment potential and stepped in with their retread management team and made a lot of activity but really no lasting positive results. In fact #$%$ bad as the prior team was the new one was worse. The point is we dodged a bullet here but where are we really ?
    For most long term holders there are still substantial gains with the potential of even more upside right ? What actions are really gaining traction here ? Will the spinning wheels break through the ice this spring ? Maybe. Global warming strategy will not be sufficient to break through here. The development of some of the base #$%$ortments are better than 3 years ago as they should be by now. The problem is both Q and HSN have also built stronger #$%$ortments. Amzn continues to be the real predator in this space without going on air. They have developed a relentless drive towards customer focus predicated on #$%$ortment and value. Brilliant.
    I believe to achieve a strong stock price the company needs a lot more than incremental gains , it requires a break though. HSN has achieved it, QVC has been the pace setter. And we need to find an area that we can be number one in. Just one strategic plank in the platform where it is not number 3 0r 4 but number 1 or at least a strong 2. What is that plank ? I have not seen it yet. Have you ? Have you ever heard anything in a conference call that suggests that the team is even addressing it ? We hear about more money for distribution for a business that is hardly growing on a consistent basis. It is time to become something better than a clone of a more successful retailer (s). Can they do it ? I would say they could. The problem the only break through strategy that has been identified is......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is laughable .Unless you are a share holder then it is an indictment on the Board and the management team, If they had an HR strategy it would start with paying for performance and lowering his base pay to 150 K. There is so much wrong here and too few attributes to turn this around with this no name team in my opinion. No pedigree of success . I can not invest.

  • Reply to

    SA Pro Intangible Investor Blew This One Too

    by ehukai47 Mar 23, 2014 8:37 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 24, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    New management and an active plan to make the store the center of focus. Stores are cleaner and better signed and actually are promoting some interesting values. The CEO has had a long track record in retail and has been very successful. This paradigm does not offer as big a challenge as several successful ventures he managed in the past. I expect the company to become very profitable. Short term is not the race . I put a 1 year calendar stop on my investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 19, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Schultz presets the concept the valuation will double in the future indicating a $150 stock price. I believe that pushes the envelope very strongly to the $100. Growth is the key here.

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Mar 18, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    I have been out for quite sometime . This was one of my crown jewels last year. I believe the results signal the "True North ". The results while disappointing were anticipated by me. I believe there will be an opportunity to re-enter the stock as the fundamentals are still excellent. This is a shoe retailer that has distinguished themselves in a discount yet upscale niche with some excellent brands. Management seems to really understand their business model quite well and the roll out potential for additional stores appears to be excellent. This interruption of high quality results is temporary in my opinion. I do not like it or use a lot of excuses like weather etc ( that is managements hymnal to sing ) I would say that they are the best in their space and have the ability to scale their model to achieve high growth in a less than robust market. I do expect that to change as the economy is improving and I expect it to be right at 3% growth which should provide enough momentum to achieve some mid to high store comp gains going forward. The key fundamental buy point is sales growth. I do not have as clear a horizon on that yet so I will use technical indicators to buy in and evaluate. Nice dividend growth.Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 17, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    amen

  • Gee were the board members that disappointing ? Just kidding but this company did ok in relative strength as witnessed by the sales growth last quarter. A little strange here.

  • This company will not have any action taken against it by SEC, FTC or any other agency in my opinion. It would then appear that the agencies have not been doing their job and had to be reminded by consultants, short sellers, and members of Congress who really do need campaign funds are quite willing to help for some considerations. In the private sector this would imply bribe but with Public officials there is a much lower barrier. believe me there is so much stink over the Sanchez letter that it invites special scrutiny. Ackman is a very desperate man. It really is about more than the money as he is #$%$ away investor money far more than his and is still paid by his investors to do that. Nice huh ? It is about his reputation and view of his character and integrity which is on public display and it really shows the soft underbelly of many of the Blue Horseshoe types. Take a guy like Loeb who will short and do it professionally and does it very well. He does not lie, he does not manufacture , he exposes the inherit weaknesses displayed in poor fundamentals and failed strategies to his advantage without a lot of public chest pounding. Thank you for putting your hand back on the stove and hey don't take it off be a real man.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Spam has taken over the board But AIG

    by fabricone1 Mar 11, 2014 2:23 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Mar 11, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    I agree with your call. No real reason that GNW and AIG trade below BV.

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