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Angie's List, Inc. Message Board

retailexecutive 31 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Dec 20, 1998
  • retailexecutive retailexecutive 11 hours ago Flag

    Nice move today with the current condition of it. Return to the 200 day Moving average will give us 37. Just around the corner

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive 18 hours ago Flag

    You are partially right. There is contagion but it strikes the companies that are not growing. There was a few losers who looked at a penny missed and lost their butt in the after hours but the gain year over year and the sales growth were and are and forecast to be excellent going forward. You ask how can they do this ? Read the trend lines and they know what levers in their strategic plan can be pushed to continue this excellence. The CEO gave an accurate forecast last quarter when they had a miss and he proved to be correct. In tough markets you got to go with winners. This stock goes to 45-50 range again in the next 12 months. Excellent performance team SKX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Blah blah blah blah.....

    by tarzanevine Feb 8, 2016 9:33 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Feb 8, 2016 6:18 PM Flag

    I could not get a verification of the auction for any property that would be theirs. It seems that they would aggressively market the auction if the objective is to optimize the sales price.I tied going through the .gov site.Any other thoughts ?

  • Reply to

    Why was Motley Fool so High on This One?

    by yooper_49945 Jan 21, 2016 6:21 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Feb 3, 2016 12:56 PM Flag

    The pros for a better salary base particularly in retail is that turnover of employees is lower and you may cut over all costs by having better trained sales staff even if they are not actually at the core better. Overtime it pays and there should be a benefit that accrues to the company. The problem here is sales growth due to very little need for a lot of repeat shopping as most of their products are sold some where else. The in store experience is OK it just is not worth an extra trip. Real estate strategy may be flawed . Best of class but it does not matter that much. A huge marketing problem with no solutions being provided by management.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    FCC Auction

    by tarzanevine Jan 30, 2016 12:25 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Feb 1, 2016 1:08 PM Flag

    As part of proper disclosure should there have been a release stating the intent ?

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 29, 2016 4:58 PM Flag

    It may be that you are right but it is more than payroll. Expense control should be reviewed by the CFO

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 29, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Your question is a good one. The short answer is that a self promoter is running this company with a curated BOD. No one is challenging the CEO here where at HSNI and QVC there is a strong management team with strong BOD presence. MB has declined margins and then claims his margin is in line with the industry but his SG&A is the highest by far. I made a point sometime ago about apples and oranges. If EVLV is going to survive let alone thrive they need to generate sales gains at an improved margin rate and costs are out of sight.
    They are out of touch with retail metrics here and instead of addressing it cogently we get garbage feedback that would have you believe that the BOD and management have gone to sleep.

    I know there are some people here that do understand this business model but it baffles me why they put such a low premium on execution. What is the plan to grow sales ? Dropping the ASP to bring in more customers appears to be a non working strategy as costs appear to be out of control. I know commissions are a big part of that. The question I have is when they did get some minor concessions they gave a lot of it up for better channel positions. That is old thinking in the day and age of electronic program guides and sophisticated social media communication tools available.
    Big marketing spend to change the name ??? Where is the payback for that ?? Like putting lipstick on a pig.

    I do agree with you that HSNI appears to be a buy.They run their operation pretty well and the stock should move up. Their volume per minute appears to be growing as well.

  • Reply to

    It appears that UA....

    by moneynow27 Jan 28, 2016 8:21 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 28, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    The point is that it is a category that is dominated by NKE, SKX and UA is an interloper. The 160 mil of shoes sales hardly indicates a threat to the strongest players. You need to dive deeper to find the victims. I believe this speaks to the future of theses players with all gaining and growing. SKS is the most under valued at this point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watched some over night programs last night

    by retailexecutive Jan 25, 2016 2:56 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 26, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    After 2 hours you are a little under the average volume per minute but depending on when you were on and if it was only the first two shows pretty good. The company needs to drive about 7% higher VPM on their current margin performance to break even. I would say that could be accomplished with some hard work and diligence with respect to strategy, customer focus, better assortments, and the key tactical block of improved execution. MB making excuses an invalid comparisons to the industry averages is apples and oranges. He needs to focus on a break-even basis first and move up from there or they will be in a very tough spot.Innovate and drive sales at a higher margin and this certainly is possible to ensure a profitable company SGA is too large and it probably was impacted by rich severance for the executive team that bailed out. So there should be some savings for next year which could allow for a slightly lower break even. Innovate and Execute are the key drivers.

  • Reply to

    Watched some over night programs last night

    by retailexecutive Jan 25, 2016 2:56 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 26, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    Nice result. for you and congratulations. While good for you it is a good start for the company if you can double the performance over the intermediate future. At $1440 vpm depending on the day part it could be very good if you can continue to build the business. Again congrats and thanks for sharing.

  • Reply to

    Watched some over night programs last night

    by retailexecutive Jan 25, 2016 2:56 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 26, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    Good point. I hope it was not taped. That performance was terrible. There is an argument for 24 hour live to train hosts and production teams etc. If this was a replay it is clear to me why they are doing so poorly. JS time for some improved tape review meetings.

  • am not impressed . I doubt that the VPM is more than $300 a minute revenue.I will try some daytime the next two days to see how much better the sales execution might be. Something is missing for sure

  • Reply to

    tread carefully here

    by bagholder11 Jan 19, 2016 9:21 AM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 21, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    There were no announcements about weekly sales results for SKX. What you should be focusing on is the Conference Call notes last quarter where the CEO reiterated the prior sales revenue guidance. You can have a story or even a made up story but I would not short more at this level. Perhaps you should have a look at a chart with volume and then decide. We give no pass to BS here. Going above 40 in less than 12 months and thank you for the dip opportunities.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 21, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    You are correct but actually Walmart never was a real head on competitor. Even the Dollar Stores are not head on competition when you review assortments. In fact in small markets there would be synergy in both stores being in the same center imho. No China worries for this stock and with the weaker Chinese currency the company will no doubt have a stronger margin base on all imports. I look forward to the next earnings and conference call. My advice is to buy pullbacks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts and questions

    by retailexecutive Jan 13, 2016 2:30 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 15, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    The insiders to your point have run for cover. I think Mark should be careful about laying off the blame on his team under the "lack of experience theme " . He had an experienced team in place and he removed them. I am not saying that was good or bad as a decision but he did hire the core of this team. It seems that not much has changed towards turning the company to "True North ". Clearly the lack of insider buying at this level says a lot about the company's outlook from their perspective. I would like to thank all for their answers. I know some of you have large positions in this stock and I hope that it can be saved by this team but I have doubts.

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts and questions

    by retailexecutive Jan 13, 2016 2:30 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 13, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    Part 2 the questions:
    How is the airtime being invested ?
    Does anyone know MB's strategy ? If so is he actually ensuring execution ?
    If the 4th quarter is a poor performer and they do not raise major capital from the TV station auction will they have enough cash for the next 18 months ?
    What role have celebrities played in improving results ?
    What role has the "better proprietary brand strategy played in building a better mix that produces more revenue and profit per minute ?
    When will his anointed board take him to task for the results ?

    KS did put his money where his mouth was. He worked one year for stock only not collecting a salary. MB stepped in with a 7 figure base and sold the company their new brand name . It could be time to either buy 1 million or so in the open market MB.

    Good luck. It seems to me that a business delivering north of 600 million in revenue should be close to $100 million in EBITDA. Others in this industry do achieve this kind of ratio on that kind of volume.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Jan 13, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    I have been out of this stock for sometime as it broke my stop not long after Mark took over. I believed in Mark's elevator pitch and exchanged ideas prior to his rush on the gates. His plan and his enthusiasm was certainly exciting . Very little of his plan actually was implemented. Certainly there has been some new merchandise added but that is the business we are in. New merchandise contributed strongly to sales mix and viewer retention.Beyond that I am hard pressed to understand what has happened other than lowering the ASP , margin and sales. This can not surprise management as the business is monitored and tracked by the minute in real time. I have no quarrel about lowering margins or ASP as a concept to test theory but this should be segregated and not allowed to run out 100% at one time. This is the strategic equivalent to flipping coins.

    Keith Stewart manged to return a failing business with no bottom in sight to an enterprise that showed some hope and promise. Disciplines were put in place for planning, execution and cost control that took a 30 cent stock as high as $7. He was pushed out in a power play. Change can be good. It can be argued that many opportunities had not been penetrated by KS and perhaps his day to day interest was not as keen in the last year or two. The stock in my opinion would be trading closer to 6 than 1 if he was still here as he managed cost and measured key metrics with a zeal. Now we have high inventory, low margins, a product mix that has difficulty making an improved productivity either in sales.ASP or margin.
    We may and I hope for you shareholders be able to see some improvement in the 4th quarter. I would expect it and in fact I believe it should in fact be demanded. The calendar demands high sales expectations on a historical basis for the 4th quarter. Direct companies that are internet, broadcast, mobile and social have an inherit advantage on many levels if they build a plan and execute that plan against bricks/mortar

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Chart's.....

    by profit_take321 Jan 8, 2016 12:59 PM
    retailexecutive retailexecutive Jan 8, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    You are correct.The failed breakout to the North was a disappointment but it is still in a basing mode as is NKE.
    Fundamentally both companies are poised to increase their revenue base and I already own a nice position here and I am considering NKE. I also really like Five as it has a growth story that is remarkable and being done without long term debt and without any real direct competition. Having said that I love NKE who is the leader in athletic shoes and is enjoying their sports apparel clothing and equipment growth . Generated by leading athletes sponsorship and this model has been indestructible.I like the way that SKX competes for wallet and mind share by developing styles that reach beyond the athletic into casual styles for men and women. Low prices for good on trend styles, Two great companies that have recently taken a pause on their stock but the fundamentals are still excellent and the future looks great for both.

    Both companies will grow both revenues and earnings. Investment pro 's hate retail now but they will see there is a major difference in performance of companies that are leaders in life style trends, Now is the time to buy all of these stocks as they will find their footing sooner than later. Pay attention to the earnings season coming up. I believe good news in terms of results and outlook will be good.All these companies should double in under 5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Jan 5, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    Over 400K short interest covered in the past 30 days. It actually looks like a lot of institutions may have written some covered calls. Just a guess though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retailexecutive by retailexecutive Dec 24, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    You will all go broke trying to find the inflection point. I never have invested because of the fundamentals. Wish I would have become a technician earlier. Shorting this stock is like playing Russian Roulette with no empty rounds in the cylinder . Good luck. You may be able to play here if you work on your technical skills but I for one would buy a pull back . So good luck. They execute and make a huge impact on the retail trade even though they have a small share. They are the agent of change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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