iIhear you and you make a good point but the key player that makes a bigger difference is Jean. Carol ? OK I guess. Billy is good imo and Bob is a nice man but not really into today's issues and solutions imo. Keith ? Did a lot but finished the 5k in first place but we are running a 10k . Clinton has improved the Wet Seal business but not the stock so much so far but it looks like it will turn up. Cohen who was the CEO or Chairman was retired on the job. Board was fast asleep. Clinton made changes and the company is making money now.
Are they any good ? I have heard of them but do not follow them. I like the way the stock is trading currently still not a smooth rider but there is a lot of value here.
From a timing perspective it would appear that they want to issue all financials audited so that could be causing the delay.
Wow how wrong can you be huh ? I sold half of my stock with the insiders on covered calls. Glad I kept half. The long trend curve is still up. The problem with you momentum guys is that you think that the chart only shows three months of data. Pull back once in a while and learn about trend following.
Mr. Trumpace, with all due respect , as I believe you are an astute investor who understands the game, I could not disagree more with any buy back activity above book value. The buyback of 5 million shares or 10% of the float would use most if not all of the cash on hand. The balance sheet is if not healthy at least stable at the current level. What has to happen in my opinion, is that the company has to start delivering on some key strategic issues that will drive the top line. This is the best effort and best possible return on investment in my opinion. Keith has done an excellent job on the cost side of the business and made some key decisions about improved guides for growth such as lowering the ASP and building new customer growth while making reasonable improvement in retention and acquisition of new customer growth. The plan was and remains a key factor in the eventual grow out of this business into an enterprise that is worth something more than the current price. Good efforts have been made in marketing with respect to name change while the new brand is a little foggy. They do not pay NBC anymore and they certainly have made good effort on distribution costs. Keith has also assembled a decent team but it can be argued the strength of the QVC background also is part of the weakness in developing a footprint that does not look like" QVC Lite ". This is not easy as it took HSN a number of years to build a unique Brand that allows them to claim some first positions in mind awareness. Q is still the Queen of this space but HSN has really developed their own space and personality. In my opinion this is the work left on the table and it sits squarely on marketing and merchandising not on stock buy backs. They are building inter net and mobile but the over all penetration is so low that it is ridculous. We are all sitting here hoping for a mid to high single digit sales increase ( It would be nice !) . What we really need is a sales explosion strategy that works.
I don't see it as a coin flip. The eps was reduced dramatically by discontinued operations. The eps on continuing operations was $0.20 per share. The revenues are very solid and I expect continued strong growth. I agree that the current dividend level may be reduced. I really don't care much. This is a growth story. It would be nice to get clarification on how the real estate could be monetized. Even having said that eps will be positive and reflect the growth potential. It is normal to see some jitters on investing in China but this is a premier opportunity in my opinion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I will re-enter here and nearly did this week but I will get back in before earnings as I am believe the company is maintaining the trend line on financial metrics. The audit will be fine no Board Director would make the public statement he made if there was any doubt of the outcome. Ackman probably had a schiza hemorrhage when he read that. The company will have the audit and a lot of cash on hand even without a recap to complete the remainder of the buy back before beginning a new one. can you imagine what this will do for the valuation ? Wow !!! Icahn can for sure. Even Bill can get it and those puts will become an albatross just like the shares he could not cover yet. Losing is habitual unless you limit your losses as all you shorts are learning. Always thinking maybe if I short here at price X. The profits are never made until the trade closes and the longs have the smarter traders here for sure. There will not be any action by the FTC as there are no laws being broken. Disclosure has always been clear and while this is a nice opportunity for the go getters it will not kill the ones that find it is not for them. So clearly the short side does not really understand the blood nature of zero sum gain. To get a better understanding they should continue to hold these short positions a little longer and get ready to see the 70 + range and then the 80+ and then the 90 + . And Ackman will be strangled and probably try to short his way out and that will not work in my opinion. So congratulations to the long side investments and cogent posts and thank yu to the short side.
It is pretty clear that the long term short posters here are all net losers and the long term long holders are net winners by a huge margin. This is a zero sum gain game and I know how much I have won and I know other longs have made a lot here as well. This means the losers enjoy losing. Most boards that I own shares of the stock the losers long or short virtually disappear after getting smacked by the smart side of the trade. Not here these boys even turn it up a notch when Billy their Grand Wizard admits defeat and runs for cover. They will continue to lose or win very little on short term short trades and always be at risk of getting killed as the long term bias is up and the trend is still intact and will remain that way for sometime to come. Huge over hangs exist against the short side such as the timing of when the buy back will begin again ,not if but when. Continued revenue and profit growth and a stock that is still very under valued ( Vector Vest values the stock currently at over $96 per share ) The short thesis still remains the same as the very beginning and that is that it ia an illegal pyramid scheme. To believe this you must ignore 32 years of solid operating experience and a management team that has made a lot of changes to the business model making it a very safe and cheap investment to become a sales distributor or a discount seeking end user or even both. It is not about how much you make for most distributors it is about a life style investment and those that have the skill set and the work ethic to follow a disciplined plan can also make a very nice return on investment without filling up their garage contrary to what many shorts believe. They have to fight for this inane point of view or admit openly that they are losers. Look no one wins them all but the smartest investors that I know well and I know many always limit their losses. And guard against being caught up in emotion. This is why I closed out. I had a disciplined stop and I left.
I live in LA and I am a Conservative. I have witnessed time and time again the Progressive Liberals move to make this a Utopia where the few successful working supports the hoards of those not interested in working because between the underground economy and social welfare the poor have incomes above 50K a year. Pay no taxes and bleed the tax payers. My greatest fear is that all these short losers will move here to get on the payroll. lol
Yeah some nervous money and insiders have been selling but the company is performing well. I agree with you on a buy here.
You have indeed outlined the salient points in the "short history " of HLF. I would like to also add that Bob Chapman was the first "Hedgie " that had the guts to make a long call against Ackman then Loeb. Loeb left in the 40 area. I am not sure about Chapman. Carl came and really put the bite on Ackman's reckless trade . In any way you look at it Ackman is unique and he did this in a very unique manner. I thank him for both his JCP and HLF investments. It would appear to be a personal record setting year. You and a few others have played a magnificent role in gut checking the short interest on this board and I do thank you. I know you have made some very good trades on this stock and I wish you continued success,
Well that is heart wrenching. If she wants to send the product back she should do so. This is not for the people regardless if they are Latino or not who do not know how to build a plan and execute it. The mayor knows this company and all the good they generate and that is why he is a good hire. He is no crybaby victim but a make it happen guy.
You are correct but any close above 62 will keep us in a basing range. I do not like that the 13 dayMA crossed below the 25 dayMA though but it does not look firm at this point. We should see some bounce from here to confirm strength in the long term trend . My fast macd shows a negative cross and my slow MACD is just barely negative. This is a reason for concern but not panic.
They made a 1.97. It was #$%$ that had already has been written off. They have been inflating reserves to clean up inventory. Be very careful. This is a company that probably will never see 15 again but it will see something around 12 by year end if they do not file a Chapter 11. I really do not see any more victorty for shorts at this level.
Serious question. If the elitist and children of the elitist buy into the concept as they di even 2 years ago there is an excellent chance of a rebound here. I am not certain that it exists in the same way and value based decision making may continue to be an impediment to growth. Without the high gross margin rate this company would topple in the earnings growth faster than JCP fell on developing a new strategy. It seems they are stuck on pandering to the classes and the want a be's . There certainly are still a significant number of these teens , tweens around but the post teen has moved on to a different life style. They need a new story to repopulate the stores but not complete abandonment of the past story and at all costs they must maintain their gross margin or fall. Can the management pull this off one more time ? That is the question. If you believe they can you should buy now. If not to late to short but no real return will be made here if they can not drive the top line. The concern I have is that the differentiation of the buying motivation may not be as attractive as it once was. I have not made a decision yet and I have never been long here but I did a very nice short here in the past. I did miss the upside on the recovery as I moved on to other investments. I am thinking of a possible move back up into the 45 + range as a potential trade.Opinions ?
his head up his #$%$ The company is slightly better than the stock. Good short over 15 X future PE though. Because nothing exciting going on here.