The traditional pe ratio is more like mid 30's but the key is growth. If they can not maintain 20+% EPS then it will not return to the mid 30 PE but I see nothing in the way of that from happening. I did not like Shultz's call that caused the arbitration call but it did give them a running start on developing a more successful retail ( food chain ) distribution strategy which is developing great revenue and gross margin. I would be a seller if they did not grow at 20% on eps compounded every quarter. If there would not have been a huge settlement it would be trading around 90 already in my opinion. Investors pay more for growth and strong Brand . Strong Brand recognition allows for higher margins and high repeat business. Couple that with strong new store growth and China and India roll outs and it is a can't miss World dominant Brand . I would argue it has great Brand recognition even in some countries that have very limited and no company presence currently. If I am not at 85 by mid year I will sell half of my position.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am a professional investor who in fact does believe what I post and I invest it per my thesis. I do not mind that you do not like it as you are nothing to me but a naysayer who has no thesis based on facts. I am not an emotional investor. If things are different from my thesis in a negative action. I change my thesis and may change my investment outlook. I have been here since $63. You have not made the money I already have on this position I am sure.
The company's growth model is geared to deliver 20% compounded annual growth rate for as far as any reasonable model can project. Revenue growth looks like a solid 12% based on a conservative forecast of 6-7% from new units. Same store growth of 5-6% ensures a powerful growth enterprise.There is a cost benefit of lower coffee prices that will deliver a minimum incremental margin for 2013 and 2014 of over $100 million a year.Strong free cash flow ensures debt coverage that will provide a solid balance sheet and attractive capital capacity. World wide growth capacity through licensing and company owned operations. New category develops in the Bakery and Tea Business will drive the Brand value and long term compounded growth models. Even at the conservative 20% growth per year the company will double its' size in under 4 years.Faster in my opinion as the compounded growth model can easily accelerate if any of the new enterprises catch fire and supermarket distribution continues its' growth internationally. I would not be surprised to see new growth opportunities to be developed and tested over the next two years as well.
Management has vision, integrity and a high quality image that supports the luxury lifestyle but at a low ticket price. The Brand identification is strong and is considered a low ticket luxury experience with the consumer base. And a place to decompress a little from an otherwise hectic schedule. $100 target in 12-15 months.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
To me it is beginning to look cheap. I sold around 47 my last position and notched 40 as a renter point. This is one of the best retail concepts in the world. Retail is running into heavy headwinds so it might be that we can buy some cheap shares.
Bear Trap 3 is in force now. They are so cooked. I love it. You know Ackman could have made some money if he would have covered in January but no his arrogance was so far over the top. He misrepresented so much in the initial presentation along with his claim of zero was just too tempting to anyone with some analysis skills and a little balls. Bill has balls and one would consider he must be smart enough but what caused this destruction ? He knew they were not breaking any laws . Did he think just that because he, Bill Ackman is a Master of the Universe that it would be enough to sway others ? It works on low intellect types like Hudget, Tex , et al but not on most thinking people. Some may had stayed out of the trade but I knew I was right when Chapman entered and Einhorn came in. When Carl and other big names joined you would have thought that Bill could have figured out he was not going to win let alone see zero. What makes a guy like this blow up ?
made some money. If there is follow through tomorrow I will go long. I love this company and the short was a technical strategy. This is a great company with an outstanding worldwide brand. Good luck to all.
Listen, Ackman has had a lot of success in the past and a few remarkable failures this and JCP in one year is over the top but he has made some money in the past and will again. He is still learning a lesson here or he would be out by now. He has been on the other side of my trade and I am happy at both JCP and HLF. This can go to 90 without much to stop it imo.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Ok it is nice to see some short notes here. it re-energizes my excitement about the company. It made the internal growth numbers and sales revenue was exceeding the street value as well. There was a fair amount of prepaid expenses absorbed in the quarter to ensure the continuation of this strong revenue curve, Equipment and staffing of trained technicians is spent in advance of new rigs. I have no concern and I am still a buyer.
They operate on the bus named Denial and soon they will transfer to the red line bus Hope. Facts over time always win. The facts are this is a growth company that manufactures a fine product and sells it through a sales network that allows for users to enjoy the opportunity to make some extra money. Nothing wrong with that. In fact it is a very profit efficient methodology of doing business. No receivables, higher margins due to a lower marketing cost., a sales force that is paid for what they produce not what they promise to produce.A high repeat business as there is a lot of relationship selling and the product actually is good. Ackman actually has helped the company as he has damaged his own. I saw some Herbalife T-shirts the other day on Wall Street. Very funny. The noon cocktail of choice will soon be Formula One. LOL.AS we close the year out this month I would like to thank the long players who have invested their money in shares and devoted sometime to posting facts. I would also like to thank the shorts for adding a power boost to the shares and bringing the Herbalife name forward stronger than any marketing campaign ever could. I have been out for a while now only trading rips with options. I believe that there will eventually be a "Black Swan Event " for the short side as this stock has a better chance of trading for $100 than 55 or where ever Billy has his puts down. I read the other day about how much money Billy blew for his investors on JCP and HLF around a cool billion. Nice.
Dunkin is for you my friend. Dirty, quiet, major league health food for your type. Starbucks is for consumers that know doughnuts are yesterdays's heart attack. healthier choices at Starbucks and you will not catch anything in there either. I have to laugh there is not a DD within 5 miles of my house but there is around 6 Starbucks. I asked the DD manager in a neighboring low end inland location why no coastal DD. He said to high end. They prefer a lower caliber customer who is not consious about health , social issues or high quality. I will say the coffee was not bad but the store reaks from the doughnut production. Lookslike KK will win that war eventually but i don't like them either.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Perfectly stated. I believe even with some profit taking here we will roll iin 2014, 2015. as the government will be selling the remaining shares and we will be in a position to generate dividends which will bring in even more demand and funds. This stock is the same story as the AIG turnaround only GM is offering more growth.
This is my understanding as well. The key will be the new AAPL contract. I am certain that AAPL will stay with NTE as they are an excellent producer. On time and good QA standards. THE key will be if AAPL leaves enough grains in the rice bowl for NTE to gain a few pounds. I believe they will reach an accord. Do not under estimmate the impact of the China Mobile deal. It will be far stronger than most can imagine. The Chinese are not all poor. They have more millionaires than the US and Europe.
There was 178,000 car fires reported to fire departments last year. So what ? TSLA will address this . It has the best crash test data ever seen and there is no gasoline to make them a bomb. Great car. When they bring something in the sub 40K range this stock will ignite . That is for sure. probably 500-600 range.
If the results stay improved and the stock price continues to rise they have no real argument for any major changes with management. The board probably should be reviewed at some point though.
The debt will be retired in under 3 years. This is a cash generating machine. Has leading market shares in their segment virtually everywhere they operate. The acquisition is being well absorbed and the profitability of consolidating the back end operations will be paying off for the next 2 years in profit growth.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I liked the report. Much better or at least more believable on the CC as well. Looks good from here. This may or may not put the Clinton Group back to sleep.