I wish your forecast could possibly be true but I can tell you first hand there will be no real chance without some major overhaul to the strategy and even more so towards the execution of any strategy. There is no real strategic plan in place that will deliver much incremental revenue growth. The company has taken action on cost when KS was in charge and a lot of progress was made but marketing and strategy was always a me too proposition and sales dipped right along with ASP and much of the cost savings were eroded due to shipping and distribution cost of the broadcast while somewhat lower in dollars it is not effectively lower on a net contribution view. Talent I suspect is part of the issue. I know some of the senior staff and I do believe that JS is a strong executive but the merchandising and marketing group is being managed on a facilitation basis with decisions and strategic thrust being pushed down rather than leading through strong leadership and management.. I could be wrong but regretfully I really do not see any real improvement since BA and KS were set free. There strategy at least worked for them on a personal basis if not for the shareholder. Buck will not be missed as he was one of the over sight directors who took very little ownership and generally failed in their responsibilities in my opinion. The new directors who all had a nice business background looked full of promise. Currently nothing of note has made a favorable impact. There is no chance the answer will come from cloning. I really believed that MB was offering and promising something fresher. My advice is if you have any profit left youu should consider selling your remaining shares.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You are correct about the insider buying and they do know when the stock is attractive and they are already making money.
Agreed a friend of mine and I were discussing the risk analysis of the old team vs. voting for the new team. In short we did not see much risk with the old team but maybe a long term climb back to the 7-8 range. The new team ( MB and the august board ) was viewed in a positive manner based on the early comments and strategic map that was being touted ) The map I believe was correct and may even still be correct but where is the execution ? Not visible. Name change ? And what support from marketing accelerated the Brand Value for this strange choice ? Could be that it is fine but I frankly do not see much happening here that was not already happening from the old team in terms of performance. Seems like the situation is now more challenging than before the CG involvement.
They have had a terrible time handling the last acquisition with regard to delivering shareholder value It appears this management has become complacent over operating results. Nothing wrong with acquisitions but the pay off has not been delivered. I used to have a lot of admiration for this group before the " Fat Ladies Ball " Now the old skinny people will fall into their portfolio but really who is it good for ? Short sellers it appears.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The dollar stores are not affected the same as JCP, M, Rost, Gap etc. You will see.