He's just full of unique observations - - - on one hand we have the pumpers claiming MU's policies of yesteryear were the demise of JCp and then along comes another "Joker" and claims we'll all be OK because "Ullman is going back to time tested strategies"
Smacks of desperation !!!
Call the shorts or bashers out and they are to cowardly to accept a gentlemen's bet? COWARDS
That sounds as pathetic as some of the "Contests" Marketvalue comes up with - - - they are meaningless, mindless and only serve to take up space on a message board - - - now why don't you do a little research and let us know what you think the current debt value means - - - who owns it? - - - do the holders think it reflects a new dilution is on the way or guarantees it doesn't ???? -----------------or is the above the extent of your contribution capability - - - - if so, it's sorely lacking and would be better off served on a site where you only need one hand -- -
. I don't think Circuit City shared that same attribute… did they?
Right now they do - - - unless you can find a big market for those buggy whips of yesteryear - - - well, we can't go back there - - - - - and it's not just a "couple of years of bad run" - - - - - - it's a company that was deliberately trashed and customers intentionally driven off - - - were this only economy related you might have a point - - - - the overwhelming majority of JCPenney problems it endures today had NOTHING to do with the economy.
I will agree that the some damage was occuring during Ullman but the whole retail sector sucked during that time from 2008 forward.
Check WMT chart for that period - might look at their SSS while you're at it - - - -
Speak for ourselves, retail.
Well - - - - - I tried, but 4 out 7 of you, me, we, they, them, she, he, couldn't agree with each other !!
Poor thing finally
delisted at 18 cents and pumpers we're still shouting turnaround
A few years ago I owned a LOT of shares in a company that went belly up - - - still trades on the pink sheets at a few hundred for a penny - - - ---------------------- Yahoo pulled the link but the board is still there if you have the URL - - - and yes - - - - there are a half dozen morons still posting about buyouts, turnarounds, and future prospects for the company - - - - -
Irony is lost on the dullards.
"dullards"???? - - - that makes a whole lot more sense - - - thought we were still on "terns" and you meant "Mallards"
I admit...I miss teenypeenyman85
No other symptoms??? No headache - no upset stomach - not lightheaded - - - blackouts???
JCP can't afford a lot of cash burn, so regardless of the cause a rough Q1 is no good here.
They're running out of things to hock/sell - - so what I'll be watching for is anything that burns anywhere close to 5-600 million cash anytime between now and before the 4th quarter - - - if they squeak through the 4th quarter with 2 billion in "liquidity" without any need to raise cash - - - they probably have a shot at making it - - - two things coming up - - - - MS lawsuit, for whatever it costs, and they have a 200 million bond due 1st part of 2015? - - wouldn't be a problem redoing it if the "turnaround" is "all systems go" - - - but if not - - - well - - - - -
Aren't the bonds now trading a par? If they shorted the bonds back in 9/24/2013, then I wonder how badly the trade has gone against them?
I'm only attempting an answer because you seemed to have posted a serious question and none of our other MB experts replied - - - - I could be 100% wrong on this and only offer it as a starting point for your own DD - - - anyone more knowledgeable feel free to correct me - I'll not only not be upset but appreciate the opportunity to learn -
That said, I believe the "debt" is trading right at par - - the bonds(KTP)(not a true bond) I believe are trading at 70-75% of par ????
Maybe you can help me out with something. Some companies file BK but stay open, others close down the whole company. What would be the reasoning to chose one way over the other?
If they they have the option of choosing, they would choose Chapter 11(reorganization) over Chapter 7(liquidation) - there are dozens of of possible answers to your question but I'll hit on just a couple of the biggest -
If they have the "money and the time" companies will generally choose 11 - - I know it sounds funny but a company without money or time won't be able to have a successful reorganization - - - they only have a limited amount of time to break leases and will have to have their plan thought out before they file so they can hit the ground running on that front - - - a company that drags everything out to the last dollar will more than likely be forced into liquidation - - - two well known cases - - - Circuit City didn't plan and ran out of time and money and were forced into liquidation - - - American Airlines planned and had cash and the result was a successful reorganization -
As a broad generalization the people hurt most by a reorganization are "unsecured" - - - - common stockholders being first on that list - - -
There are people that disagree but I still feel a reorganization is not a bad thing for the company or employees in this situation, but rather would be a positive - - - even if they are correct and this company can avoid 7 & 11 - - - the process to make this a healthy company will take years and years without the option of any missteps along the way.
Shorts Bonds; Slams Liquidity; Expects Default Risk Surge
Wowzers - - - it's almost like they knew what was going to happen before it did - - - if they were right on this, I wonder what else they were right on - - - an article worth a reread - - - - - -
Goldman ....... view that the company has some liquidity triggers available that should enable it to extend its life, but that it will continue to encounter a difficult fundamental backdrop within which to effect a turnaround. Liquidity triggers include:
Sell fringe land (est. value: $100mn)
Sell tire, battery, and automotive locations (est. value $115-135mn)
Sell mall partnership interests (est. value $100-150mn)
Tap debt markets for $500mn of incremental second lien bank loan or bonds (est. value $500mn)
Raise equity (up to $1bn)
Monetize portion of its below-market leases (up to $400mn)
it still has some liquidity levers left. Additionally, in fiscal 2012, the company incurred a federal net operating loss (NOL) of $1.5 billion of which approximately $284mn was carried back. The remaining $1.2 billion carry-forward (expiring between 2013 and 2032) is available to offset future taxable income. As a result, the tax implications of any asset sales should not be onerous. Below we provide a list of potential triggers divided between “simple” levers and those that would likely prove more complicated
He hasn't been heard from since the 1st part of March - - the theory is - he realized that JCPenney not only monitors this board after the little JCPgoldenboy incident, but they can identify you, and we all know how much his superiors would like to have him training future JCPenney employees in the fine art of giving them all cutesy names like "slovenly behemoths, buck tooth buckies, dregs of society, and old blue hairs" - - -
Of course they won't have any problem telling who I am - since I,me,we, they, she, them, us are Mess, stihlman, Retayl, Allaro and Skrewed - - -
You're correct - long debt - short stock is a normal trade - - I'm not a bond guy - Flipper was the guy with the bond figures - - I think the shorts that came on board after the 70-80k are indeed the "Johnny come lately" - short term traders etc. - - - the ones that mean something to me are the funds that block sell their shares short - - they just don't jump in and out like retail traders - - - - I'm not sure how much insight Q1 is going to give us - - - I believe the weather is going to be a HUGE factor that will have affected 2 of the 3 months across a good portion of the country - - if it's bad that's more cash burn - JCP can't afford cash burn no matter it wasn't their fault - - - - it won't be just JCP but all retail - - - - from car dealers to florists - - - I'm not sure "reorganization" is off the table - - - they bought time with the dilution - - - is it enough ????- I was really looking forward to them doing the smart thing and Chapter 11 - instead of dragging it out like a Radio Shack to the point of no return - - I thought under a reorganization they would salvage the best of the company with all the new remodeled stores in good areas and break leases on the rest and shut them down - - it would have given them a leg up on the competition - flush with cash - flush with credit - something positive customers could hang their hat on - get a HUGE news splash, good for business - - - - good for remaining employees morale - a future they could count on(at least for a while and not the quarter by quarter stuff) - - - again just MHO
I realize your brain has only one hamster running but "the market" is the accepted phrase used daily when describing the broad market overall, not individual stocks. But you knew that. You just take things out of context to manipulate to suit your purposes.
When you INCLUDE JCPenney in "The Market" in your original post you're including ONE individual stock and try to make your point using the "WHOLE MARKET" having performed a certain function - - - - yet when someone else uses an individual stock, it doesn't fit your agenda and you cry foul - - - - can't have it both ways buddy boy !!!!!- - - it's YOU who PUT things into your own context to manipulate them to suit your purposes - - - -
So - I'd be more than happy to lend you my hamster so YOUR BRAIN would have at least some power - - - -
Post and the reply
alloro • 1 hour 47 minutes ago...........Lots of stocks went up during the recession.
frankmartorana • 2 hours 34 minutes ago............Alloro likes to casually forget trivial facts like the entire market dropped 50% during the recession. Go ahead, Alloro, keep spouting half truths.
That was a lot of words for not really saying anything.
Have you never heard the axiom - - - "If you can't beat em with brilliance, baffle em with bullshirt"
Alloro likes to casually forget trivial facts like the entire market dropped 50% during the recession.
It would appear that you're stating ALL(entire) of the stocks dropped 50% during the "recession" - - - if so, it's you spouting half truths - - - -
If you require pictures, pull up a chart of WMT -
They did mention that JCP just has too many shorts to make any short-side play look attractive at this point.
I'm not short JCPenney now - - - my long term outlook hasn't changed, but there is no way I would advocate taking a new short position at this level - - it's just a guess but I would think about 70K of the shorts are long term shorts and aren't the slightest bit worried about a nickel or a dollar down here.
You are a liar - CNBC promised JCPenney was going to get a piece of a BIGGER pie !!!! - - - /s
Hmmm, instead of retail - now I wonder if they were talking about a real pie ? Maybe they hadn't eaten yet and mixed their lunch order with their JCPenney pump piece
As for marc lasrys take on JCPenney you need to remember two things - - - he bought bonds that can get paid even in a default or reorganization - - - that doesn't mean common is worth more or less - - - - - - the second thing is to remind yourself of how long of a line of billionaires he's last in that have taken a bath on JCPenney - - - - Ackman, Soros, Bass, Vornado etc etc. - - - You've some of the biggest names in the biz that called this one wrong - - - -