Were you casing the joint Chase????
My Visit to JC Penney, Garden State Plaza, Paramus, NJ
by chase07470 • May 6, 2013 8:06 AM
For those who don't know, Paramus NJ is a shopping mecca and Garden State Plaza is one of two giant malls in the area.
I arrived at 2pm. It was a beautiful day out, highs near 72. But the mall was packed. Had to park way out on teh permitter and walk what seemed like a half a mile to get in.
Cuban or Vornado - - - Cuban said he was in this for a "trade" and Vornado was in it for the real estate(and that's gone) - - - - - - that would add a few shares to the "float" - - - wonder if that would make the price go up or down??? - - - especially if a Teachers Pension fund bailed at the same time ???
The issue with JCP is they plan to sell properties they own to invest in themselves and to survive another year. These properties will now have mortgages....As an adviser I would defer selling any properties or taking down any more debt and just reorganize.
Whew ! - where do I start - - - - for the 1000th time - JCP has basically already sold their properties to GS for 2.25 billion - - - AND they've spent the good part of that money with little to nothing to show for it - annnnnnnndddddd even if this cash need is a rumor, it won't be long until it isn't - - - as an adviser you should do more research into any company you're advising !
GS becomes DIP
Sell RE to REIT that leases back to JCP
Pays pennies on the dollar to bondholders - possibly giving shares in new JCP in lieu of cash
Uses reorganization to break leases in unprofitable locations
Has 5-600 remodeled stores full of inventory - vendors waiting in line to offer credit to the new debt free JCPenney
that jumped off the Empire State building, and as he passed each story on the way down - - - - - - he flipped the "bird" and stated "So far so good"
no no no all you crows/shorts thought it would bleed out...
well well well... were getting bypass surgery and GS is our Dr.
Does anyone else want to tell Libo or shall I - - - - - - OK - I win - - - Libo - this(rumored) cash infusion IS NOT "bypass surgery" - - - - - - - - it's "LIFE SUPPORT" until they can harvest the organs - - - LMAO
This may shock the entire board - but there is some truth to what FRAUD posted - - - - - however the customers of today are the same customers JCPenney and all their competitors have to chose from - I don't believe there is anyone that wouldn't prefer the customer of 40-50 years ago, but alas and alack we don't have the luxury of choosing between yesteryear and today - - - - in the "good ole days" fraudulent returns and scams were the rarity, not the norm - most customer responded to "true bargains" and waited eagerly each year for the January "white sale"(which was a real sale BTW) - - - - bottom line, you may not like it but the only thing in the world you can change is yourself - - - that means adapting as things change(for better or worse) - - - a lot of older people don't handle change well and end up bitter and frustrated and lash out futilely in an effort to return to the comfort of their past - - - - -
Bottom line - - - you need that customer - RJ made the same mistake and believed he could cherry pick his clientele - - - - - Boutiques can do that - Department stores not so much and please don't throw a Nieman or such in my face - JCP isn't in that league
JCP has/will burn 3Billion in cash in 2013
JCP Capex is/will be 1Billion for 2013
JCP projects Capex wll be 300M in 2014
Without any changes that leaves an estimated cash burn of 2.7Billion for 2014
They project 2.25Billion in liquidity to start 2014
That would leave only enough cash until Mid-year unless they drastically reduce expenses NOW - - - or dramatically increase sales NOW - - - or ramp up margins 25% starting NOW - -
Just for the sake of discussion, how are they going to do the above? - - - a 50% decline in shrinkage isn't going to do it - - - - keeping all the stores they have now open and turning off half the lights isn't going to do it - - - firing another 60,000 people would be a temporary solution - - - increasing margins in this retail environment by any significant amount is at best an uphill battle - - so far they haven't been able to bring back customers or increase sales by even the smallest of percentage needed for a turnaround - - - - - that only leaves one option - - - - MORE DILUTION or MORE DEBT !!!
yapping about the value of JCPenney real estate to chime in - - - Vornado is known for being the type of guy to walk away from a sure thing /s
Now that the Real Estate angle has at least lost some of it's allure - - - let's start analyzing the remaining hedge funds and what they're known for - - - - - - - - first couple that come to mind are like vultures circling a carcass . You might say - - experts at taking a company apart - and putting it back together again - - - -
So basically Attic, you're saying we need more than "Libbo's, Little sales" to just pay the light bill - - - ________________________________________________________________________________
Wonder if he's had a chance to work on my math question?????
Ok - let's review - - 1.5 billion in "cash and equivalents" at the end of the second quarter - - - they're projecting to have 1.5 Billion in LIQUIDITY at the end of the year and spending 910 million by the end of the year - - - - they only have 350 -500 million on the credit line left - - - the only place to generate additional revenue is the 3-4% that "MAY" be up in the back half - assuming the last half actually does the 4% increase YOY in sales at a 40% margin, that's only 128 million - - - - - now tell me again how the "pie in the sky" 128 million is going to "save the company - - - - that's about 8-9 days of cash - - - -
Writing is on the wall, you best not be short long term.
I'm assuming that statement must be the result of some equity analysis you've done on JCPenney's financial condition - - - could you share with the board a couple of the major points that make the turnaround a "slam dunk" - - - - - you could start with elaborating on what the plan is to not only regain the 4 billion in lost sales at a 25% increase in margins as reported from last quarter, but the needed increase of another 4-5 billion to satisfy the newly doubled debt load - - - - -
I sold my HLF this am - had it since July - - thinking - - - - - always leave some profit for the other guy - - - - - - - then bought 375 shares of JCP at 13.16 - - - - - - looking for a dollar.
Name the project that JCP has or is going to have to generate a rate of return greater than the rate they are going to borrow at - - -
My so called "experience"(as defined by you) has been much more successful than your experience(as indicated by your posts) as a JCPenney associate - - - - - the Chronic Malcontent label does seem to suit you best - - - however(based on the past accuracy of my observations/predictions) you are going to be in a world of hurt when the "reorganization" comes into play - - - when continued employment will depend on actual results and not your ability to slither away into your hidey hole when upper management comes a'calling !!!
$2B + $1B Revolving Credit Line + $8B in Unencumbered Real Estate = Market Cap:1.76B
Apparently she's just "stirrin da pot" - - - posts the same thing several times a day - - - knows its wrong just needs the attention
$1.7B + 300M Revolver + 3-4B in pledged RE to Goldman for 2.25B Term Loan ..... market cap of 2.5B - - - - - - - - - - - - see what I mean, you have to post that stuff intentionally to get absolutely every item wrong - - - - - no one is that stupid - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - er, right??
But he also said he likes the company..watch again.
I've always "liked" Jcpenney - - - I "loved" Montgomery Wards - - - - - - means nothing
JCP has lot's of runway, prepare for lift off.
You do know what happens to planes at the end of the runway when they're overloaded(debt) - - -
another obama hater who has been short since merch 2009, dow at 6,000
Typical moron - - - check your dates - - - - the DOW didn't drop to 6000 until three months AFTER "O" took office(DOW 8500) !!!!! - - - - - - granted it does sound better than to say "O" gave the DOW a 30% haircut right after he took office - - - - -