look a little closer at the financials and you see they pushed some costs into the general selling and administrative costs witch is below the gross margin calculation but is a cost. big jump 2014 vs 2013 and some good increases in Q4 and Q1 vs previous quarters
looks like 10,000 units per quarter is hard to break away from. The Q 4 letter said some deliveries were pushed into Q1. Q1 posted the big production number but sales were only 10045. Q4 sales were 9834 with the quailfying statement that sone of the Q4 deliveries were pushed into Q1 2015.
Sales growth is not in step with production growth
I'm no doctor but infection is no something you ignore, especially a foot. Not saying you'll loose a leg but but that is a potential outcome if left to fester.
Jack Daniels the whiskey guy eventually died from an infection in his foot caused originally by kicking a safe he forgot the combination to.
I got the figures from page 1 of the investor letter for each quarter. The highlights section.
Those are the published numbers. Is there another set of numbers or different ways of recording production and sales?
I hear you. My biggest concern, since I am long put options going into the quarter is that this excess inventory or perhaps the way deliveries are managed and recorded gives an opportunity to load a lot of sales into Q2.
Given the large short interest and some very obvious financial facts the investor sediment is cooling quickly. Why not post a great sales number as a smoke screen for the numbers you can;t really manipulate. The stock price could pop and that is making me nervous. I have received some good advice - use long date leap puts or just go short vs my current short dated put strategy.
What is the risk does this excess inventory present to my short like position I wonder?
I see the need for some demonstrators at the stores but why does the differance between production and delivery persist Q after Q. Also there is a 3 month delay in delivery. All cars are pre-ordered??????? The deposit is very small. Maybe people are walking away from their deposits
maybe they count the failed drive units as units produced
Q4 of 2014 vehicles delivered 9834 ( some P*% production problems pushed some deliveries into Q1) Vehicles produced 11,627
How come each quarter has 1000 or more vehicles produced than delivered?
How come Q1 revenue was the same in Q1 as it was in Q4 2014?
ever look at the Panasonic's quarterly reports to see if battery sales could give insight into Tesla's Quarter?
I think Panasonic reports July 29th
Panasonic can sell batteries to anyone they want to. Battery's and chargers are one of the 3 main business lines in the automotive area. Infosystems is a larger segment than batteries and chargers. All up batteries and chargers is about 1/3 of Panasonic's automotive business area.
BTY Panasonic has a similar market cap to Tesla
I had puts in GM at the time and couldn't believe how long it stayed elevated.
There is no sure thing
I had some time to kill this weekend and joined the discussion. I have learned a fair amount and appreciate the input especially lone ranger. I am long Aug 7th 275 strike puts and am considering many different paths so hearing opposing views is especially useful. Even more so when there is some homework or analysis.
I may not agree with the other side as it is presented but appreciate the opportunity to hear it.
I will probably be a bit more conservative on this speculative investment as a result of my time here. Tesla is a speculative investment long or short so hats off to those who have courage and take risk.
The advancement of technology is greatly accelerated by this flow of speculative money. Fuel cells advanced greatly from the speculative investments of the longs. The shorts provide balance and oversight. Warren Buffet invites a short position investor to his annual meeting round tables to help provide that view point for the co-owners of Berkshire.Hathaway.
Tesla has few few bumps in the road and long stubborn hills to climb before they achieve financial security. I hope they make it. This quarter might be a bit troublesome, (my investment thesis) or it may provide some sort of positive surprise. My money is on the former. We will find out in a few weeks.
I occasionally find a position I can take a short view ( buy put options ) and I usually anchor it with an opposing long or two. I am long FLEX - Oct call options and recently bought some SIMO calls, hoping for a reversion to the mean. Most of my long positions in stock are kinda boring so this kind of stuff adds spice.
Good luck all
PS this has been entertaining as well