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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

retireb4death 568 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 17, 2015 8:35 AM Member since: Nov 11, 2004
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  • Reply to

    What Keeps This Down????

    by solarfinancethinker Mar 16, 2015 3:26 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Mar 17, 2015 8:35 AM Flag

    you can't put naked truth like that on a yahoo mb! lol
    I think the market would still forgive unproven production/margin rates if there was a back-log on the order book to prove demand. But put it all together and it's still wishes without efffective mgmt communication and/or transparency. They can still get to the promised land, but it's no longer a downhill roll, now it's a hot steamy trudge up a sewage-polluted Brazilian river while the locals are on the brink of insurrection.

  • Reply to

    You fell for it

    by samuel_isaac_rosenberg Mar 12, 2015 10:11 AM
    retireb4death retireb4death Mar 12, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    I'm struck by the fact that 2 years ago, this was an alt energy play, then 1 year ago it became high margin tailored oil play, now it's a food protein play. And yet none of the above is generating revenues of any substance (future promise,:yes, revenue: not according to the financials). I want this company to succeed, but have lost all trust in current executive mgmt (and a BOD that seems to be complacent). I'm suspicious that a quick run-up will be used to position a dilution event, since (imo) this company likes to come to market for money a year in advance of possibly needing it....which would be right about...now?

  • Reply to

    sales lower in 1q2015 than 4q2014?

    by samstoo_ Mar 4, 2015 12:13 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Mar 4, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    that very last bit is true-stuff...though you might want to discount that Encapso growth until oil rebounds to at least $70. Nobody is going to be drilling new wells at current prices. Existing drill sites will finish what they started, but new sites are being held-up at current prices. Algavia is going to be a slow uphill as well, imo. You can tout it as vegan, etc, but the ash-skinned, netty-pot crowd is going to have a hard time getting past a perception of synthetic-bio. It's gonna take some master marketing to get that product into general consumption (remember Olestra? "may cause oily discharge" but we bought it anyway!)

    I finally dumped my shares just before the call...my head always knew not to own this company into the call, but my heart played me a fool all the way from $13+ to $2. I'll re-enter at some point as I do believe in the tech, but I really do NOT believe in Wolfson, so I'm, as you put it, in no rush to buy more stock now. I also don't believe for a second that the cash on balance sheet will be enough for them, so (again, imo) I do expect a dilution event in next 3-6 months and they're not going to get the $11 sweetheart deal GS gave them last time...this time it'll be a predatory lender.

    Now I slink away until some future time when I have nothing better to do than waste some time on the MB's.

  • Reply to

    Longs lose hope

    by mwb678 Feb 10, 2015 12:53 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Feb 11, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    I wish, but believe? not so much.. unless the BOD finds their cojones, move JW to the sidelines and put a real CEO in place. I'll sit on my 12k shares (basis mid-10's, thanks for the rape, JW) since I do believe the risk of $0 is WAY less than the odds of $5. But I give nothing to current mgmt on 'faith'. If youre looking for easy money, look elsewhere. This company is too deeply accessible to shorts and Goldman while mgmt remains clueless on how to manage the street. it'll be a long long slog back to breakeven (if ever) for my shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Tender Offer

    by samuel_isaac_rosenberg Jan 22, 2015 9:53 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Jan 23, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Not surprising since you know the salary decrease will be offset by share grants, so they probably need room under the approved limits to make those grants. As a bag-holder who'd down 80% on my not-insubstantial investment, I'd like to see JW and crew suffer along with the rest of us, but I also recognize that a company has to pay out to keep talent...so payout and have a chance of gain or don't payout and be assure of failure. Welcome to capitalism.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Longs have been "PLAYED" by educated investors

    by mwb678 Nov 24, 2014 7:15 AM
    retireb4death retireb4death Nov 24, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    This 'long' has not been played. I made a thoughtful, educated investment. I was subjected to large paper losses courtesy of several factors - many of which I lay blame at the feet of JW...he's the CEO, and he's failed to produce. You can claim that power/commodity pricing, etc are beyond JW's control, but it's the CEO's job to foresee and navigate the company through/around this stuff and JW is proving to be quite ineffective at actually running the company. I don't see any fundamental of the company that would invalidate my investment though the likelihood of a dilution event toward the end of 2015 would have put me at a lower expected entry point. I have no current plans to part with my shares - I don't need the tax loss and I see more upside possibility than downside. I do hope that the BOD has the balls to replace the CEO and just keep JW on the board or president, etc. If they do their jobs, then I'm prepared to wait a couple of years for my reward on this one. If the BOD proves ineffective, and the CEO remains unable to produce results, then I'll re-evaluate my decision based on expected timeframes, fundamentals, and other opportunities.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • retireb4death retireb4death Oct 29, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Nothing would make me happier than to see the shorts take it in the shorts...but let's face it, the bulk of short shares are likely being played by institutionals that also have the long positions to hedge. They can play both sides of the fence with active trading whereever it's profitable and still know that their exposure is limited. I'm not expecting anything relevatory from the cc, and JW is inept at managing the market..so I have zero hope of recouping my losses in 2014...but it's just paper...not really a loss unless you sold, which I won't do as long as fundamentals and execution remain basically on track. Scottrade may lend my shares to my enemies, but that's the way it all works now...sigh...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • retireb4death retireb4death Oct 16, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    the Capitalist crowd won't be wowed by an EPA award (I held my reaction until I looked at the last decade of recipients...Amyris was in there regrettably, but by and large, it reads like a Sector playbook...Dow, Cargill, 3M, etc...). Companies can self-nominate, and usually do...but it's validation of the science, if not of the business model...that will only come from posting some solid sales & revs for a few Qs. I do have to wonder if this was the doing of Dillon as it shows a bit more resourcefulness that Wolfson seems capable of....
    I WAS, however, impressed that SZYM was able to generate a PR that wasn't related to appearing at some roadshow equity conference. Building a little name recognition with PRs about real world events would go a LONG way toward helping stabilize this stock.

  • Reply to

    Fellow Longs

    by matthewk28092 Oct 9, 2014 11:15 AM
    retireb4death retireb4death Oct 9, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    By my accounting I've only lost money if I've sold a stock for less than I paid for it. Until I sell, it's just unrealized loss. As for 'telling your family'...that sounds like you over-extended yourself on a volatile start-up. Follow the wealth folks...follow the wealth...and never EVER let those bastards force your hand....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    One more thought about "Management."

    by pkm194949 Oct 7, 2014 9:48 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Oct 8, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Face it, Wolfson makes it hard to like him. Does SZYM execute the stated plan..yep (within acceptable margin of error/delay). Does Wolfson give a #$%$ about touting his company to the markets...nope. When you tout Goldman for 'coaching', you're probably praising the firm most responsible for the current short levels. Those gomers never met a grandmother they wouldn't sell to put a penny in their pockets. But hey, that's their job, and they do it very well. SZYM is going to be a hard-luck story until they put up a couple of Q's of solid and increasing revenues. Until that time they're a start-up/ramp-up/momentum game and you're going to hate owning it (I know...i'm in at 12k shares avg basis mid 10's and I'll frown at the paper losses, but they're just that...paper...nobody's getting my shares for a long time to come). There's nothing different about the fundamentals of the company now than 8 months ago when it was in the teens. The investment risk is less now than then since Moema is online. But the markets don't give a #$%$ about any of that anymore..it's all computers, algorithms and traders acting like the 300lb 6th grade bully...and SZYM is the 4ft 85lb nerd getting hung on the coat rack by it's underwear. Ain't nothin' going to change that until SZYM hits puberty and gets into the gym...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SRPT

    by carpet310 Aug 19, 2014 10:35 AM
    retireb4death retireb4death Aug 20, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    And when a drug is given in an uncontrolled environment where you know nothing about the genetic, dietary, pharmacological history of the reciipient and suddenly there's a hypermetabolic reaction that turns that patient into a horseman of the apocalypse and we suddenly have a bug that's airborne and able to genetically bridge over any inhibitor our science can throw at it...will you be harping at the FDA to 'save the children' then? Don't discount it as fiction..we're closer to it than you think.

    Now, should FDA fast-track DMD drug for US patients with known histories in valid clinical settings to treat a genetic-based disease and give these kids a chance at living? Absolutely.

    Two completely different subjects with SRPT and you'd better re-think your position on Ebola to contain it, contain it, contain it... and any person who has been in the hot zone doing missionary, teaching, business or medical work had damned well better be in quarantine for 25 days prior to allowing them to board a commercial airliner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Institutional Investor Activity in Q2

    by thezymeister Jul 27, 2014 12:55 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Jul 28, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Just to play devil's advocate: how many of those institutionals are holding short and picked-up shares to cover positions should they choose? And you can certainly buy non-existant shares easily enough if you're a GS customer (they'd sell their grandmothers as naked shorts if there was a market). Total institutional ownership is a valid metric - and introduces some stability to a stock, but all these little positions are interesting, but meaningless in the grand scheme. SZYM has to put up proven revenue from something other than Algenist before the market will have even a hint of respect for it. I'm conifident that they will do so (12k shares long here), but not necessarily 2Q or 3Q or even 4Q, but ultimately they will do it. I can wait.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jul 25, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    I'll thank you to not label me or my investing style with such a broad brushstroke.

    As an investor, I'm quite capable of waiting for my expected returns while still actively monitoring my investment. The world's shift to an instant gratification mentality and attention spans measured in the time it takes to text/tweet uncensored and unorganized thoughts has infected the markets. It reached its zenith in HFT.

    If you're a trader, then go play in your sandbox and enjoy your periodic wins, for in the long haul (and I'm talking retirement and the 30 years after "working" that we have to face) you'll find that the fable was wise: slow and steady wins the race.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jul 15, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    To be fair, he's been critical before but clearly stated that it was just too early in the development phase to be positive. Regrettably, when he puts out one of his non-negative blogs one of his fellow MF'ers grunts out a steaming pile of critical opinion about 48 hours later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jul 15, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    yep...I'm usually reluctant to block someone, but that particular poster deserves it. I hope he(she?) gets the medications balanced soon cause those posts are bordering on frantic...and I'm just not really believing that he(she?) is altruistic and trying to save all the investors on the board from the perceived evils of SZYM.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorting SZYM a Very Crowded Trade

    by doc.reality Jul 14, 2014 5:22 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Jul 15, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Don't kid yourself...yes, there are retail investors shorting this (though I seriously doubt any of the perpetual flamers on a Yahoo MB have $5 to their name to support any trade) but the bulk of those short shares are under the control of institutionals and there are already shares in place to support the shorts. Unlike a buy-and-hold retail investor (which is how I view myself by and large), the institutionals are always churning their positions to make money, but never fully exposing themselves to naked short positions.
    So yes, there's a short squeeze to be had given good timing/events, but I'd suggest the exposed short positions are less than half of the total short positions.
    I'm not into the portfolio churn method...and i think 90+% of stocks are overpriced right now (at least anything I'm likely to buy), so i just sit here on the side with 12,000 shares long. When it's $13, I smile. When it's $10, not so much. But it ultimately doesn't matter to me. I like the story, I like the fundatmentals and we'll find out first week of August how the Moema plant in performing. I'll considering giving up my shares when the stock hits $19-$20 or when I see a transformative change in fundamentals. And meantime, I'll be entertained by the rantings of a Yahoo MB...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jun 20, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    or the debt holder has already shorted shares, thereby hedging the loan, locking the ROI and now maybe they want the cash underpining the short position freed-up for other purposes. There's a lot of different scenarios possible on this one and we'll never know the full story other than SZYM has converted debt to equity. So we have a 2%-ish dilution, but the balance sheet just got stronger, so in theory the existing shareholders should come out just a fraction below the value they held prior to the conversion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jun 5, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    Don't kid yourself...a) there aren't that many retail shorts...b) GS is very probably either the #1 short interest or the share lender to the greatest accumulation of short interests...and the bulk of the short sales are offsetting long positions. Since you see large increase in short shares, but not publicaion of a stock imbalance, this is all just institutionals doing what they do: creating more wealth from thin air for the 1% in a manner that would never be accessible to the lower 90%. Call it prosperity gap, or market capitalism...it's all the same and your view depends on which side of the fence you're peering from.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • retireb4death retireb4death Jun 5, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    We all stand in awe of your deep technical analysis and prosaic demonstration of wit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One thing that bugs me about Solazyme

    by investitrader Jun 2, 2014 7:25 PM
    retireb4death retireb4death Jun 3, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    ...and don't overlook the possibility or retooling a defunct ethanol plant to algae. Clinton wasn't built ground up, so, if expansion was the plan, why wouldn't they keep a side view on dead/dying ethanol plants so conveniently located within 50 mii diameters of farmland . The market doesn't look at the capex cost as much as it looks at the historical track record of getting a new plant on line and how long it will take that capex to increase revenues and bottom line (ROE). Overcapacity buildout would be punished, but a well-reasoned incremental progress (like every step of the plan executed to this point since IPO) would strengthen the fundamentals, thus the institutional holders, and thus decrease the sway of the momentum skeezers who are currently remote controlling the bus.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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