you can't put naked truth like that on a yahoo mb! lol
I think the market would still forgive unproven production/margin rates if there was a back-log on the order book to prove demand. But put it all together and it's still wishes without efffective mgmt communication and/or transparency. They can still get to the promised land, but it's no longer a downhill roll, now it's a hot steamy trudge up a sewage-polluted Brazilian river while the locals are on the brink of insurrection.
I'm struck by the fact that 2 years ago, this was an alt energy play, then 1 year ago it became high margin tailored oil play, now it's a food protein play. And yet none of the above is generating revenues of any substance (future promise,:yes, revenue: not according to the financials). I want this company to succeed, but have lost all trust in current executive mgmt (and a BOD that seems to be complacent). I'm suspicious that a quick run-up will be used to position a dilution event, since (imo) this company likes to come to market for money a year in advance of possibly needing it....which would be right about...now?
that very last bit is true-stuff...though you might want to discount that Encapso growth until oil rebounds to at least $70. Nobody is going to be drilling new wells at current prices. Existing drill sites will finish what they started, but new sites are being held-up at current prices. Algavia is going to be a slow uphill as well, imo. You can tout it as vegan, etc, but the ash-skinned, netty-pot crowd is going to have a hard time getting past a perception of synthetic-bio. It's gonna take some master marketing to get that product into general consumption (remember Olestra? "may cause oily discharge" but we bought it anyway!)
I finally dumped my shares just before the call...my head always knew not to own this company into the call, but my heart played me a fool all the way from $13+ to $2. I'll re-enter at some point as I do believe in the tech, but I really do NOT believe in Wolfson, so I'm, as you put it, in no rush to buy more stock now. I also don't believe for a second that the cash on balance sheet will be enough for them, so (again, imo) I do expect a dilution event in next 3-6 months and they're not going to get the $11 sweetheart deal GS gave them last time...this time it'll be a predatory lender.
Now I slink away until some future time when I have nothing better to do than waste some time on the MB's.
I wish, but believe? not so much.. unless the BOD finds their cojones, move JW to the sidelines and put a real CEO in place. I'll sit on my 12k shares (basis mid-10's, thanks for the rape, JW) since I do believe the risk of $0 is WAY less than the odds of $5. But I give nothing to current mgmt on 'faith'. If youre looking for easy money, look elsewhere. This company is too deeply accessible to shorts and Goldman while mgmt remains clueless on how to manage the street. it'll be a long long slog back to breakeven (if ever) for my shares.
Not surprising since you know the salary decrease will be offset by share grants, so they probably need room under the approved limits to make those grants. As a bag-holder who'd down 80% on my not-insubstantial investment, I'd like to see JW and crew suffer along with the rest of us, but I also recognize that a company has to pay out to keep talent...so payout and have a chance of gain or don't payout and be assure of failure. Welcome to capitalism.
This 'long' has not been played. I made a thoughtful, educated investment. I was subjected to large paper losses courtesy of several factors - many of which I lay blame at the feet of JW...he's the CEO, and he's failed to produce. You can claim that power/commodity pricing, etc are beyond JW's control, but it's the CEO's job to foresee and navigate the company through/around this stuff and JW is proving to be quite ineffective at actually running the company. I don't see any fundamental of the company that would invalidate my investment though the likelihood of a dilution event toward the end of 2015 would have put me at a lower expected entry point. I have no current plans to part with my shares - I don't need the tax loss and I see more upside possibility than downside. I do hope that the BOD has the balls to replace the CEO and just keep JW on the board or president, etc. If they do their jobs, then I'm prepared to wait a couple of years for my reward on this one. If the BOD proves ineffective, and the CEO remains unable to produce results, then I'll re-evaluate my decision based on expected timeframes, fundamentals, and other opportunities.
Nothing would make me happier than to see the shorts take it in the shorts...but let's face it, the bulk of short shares are likely being played by institutionals that also have the long positions to hedge. They can play both sides of the fence with active trading whereever it's profitable and still know that their exposure is limited. I'm not expecting anything relevatory from the cc, and JW is inept at managing the market..so I have zero hope of recouping my losses in 2014...but it's just paper...not really a loss unless you sold, which I won't do as long as fundamentals and execution remain basically on track. Scottrade may lend my shares to my enemies, but that's the way it all works now...sigh...