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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

retiredguru3 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 12, 2014 6:48 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2003
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  • Reply to

    The market index seem to be topping

    by rmarfl Dec 8, 2014 11:21 AM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Dec 12, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    The dividend investor looks at RD as follows. Buy it at some price (hopefully not at the top) and then just ride it and do not worry about trying to time the market. If history is any clue, then stock price will always return to what it was before (or close to it)...so, a dividend investor never loses over the long haul, collects a nice dividend, and does not have to worry about timing.

    The trader is not (usually) interested in the dividend - he/she buys low and then sells at some higher point.

    A good trader can outperform the buy/hold investor...but, either method suits a different situation and a different person...and either method should be profitable...over the longer term...

    I am about half invested with about half cash, waiting for some indication of a turn up. Unfortunately, I have been away the past 2+ months and so did not sell calls nor buy puts on the way down.

  • Reply to

    Who"s In and Who's out.

    by aealphonse Dec 1, 2014 2:06 PM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Dec 2, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Both are up because (if the rumor is true...and I don't know if it is) it would be expected that BP's stock would command a higher price than now in a buy-out and that RDS would benefit because it would be (probably) buying the bbls of reserve for less than the cost of finding new reserves...and the fact that there would be way less overhead for the same number of combined bbls (staff/'layers of management/redundant departments would disappear in a buy-out or merger).

    Because of the size, I would expect (if any truth at all to the rumor), that it could well be a merger (rather than a buy-out) with Shell the controlling/remaining company. I would also expect that regulatory agencies would demand significant sale of assets to allow a merger...so, the surviving company would be larger that either now but smaller than a combined company.

    The reason that companies were making money at $30 crude and not much more at today's prices is that the cost of finding/producing was much less then.

    Yes, RDS stock price was North of 200 but remember there was a 4/1 split (from about 220 to 55)...so, the share price is about the same then as now...

    Still holding my shares - we have seen this before...and will see it again in the future...

    Unless one is a good trader, it is sometimes difficult to know when to buy/sell. For example, someone mentioned that they got out at 71. Now that it is above 69 (and unless they got back in last Friday - which would have been a great but difficult move), where do they buy back in...now and hope it keeps going up or wait and have to buy back above 71 - or hope that it goes back down...never easy decisions...

    Best to all...

  • retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Nov 28, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    Short term, it is good for the consumer...long term it will be bad for the consumer (lower crude prices means less drilling and that means less supply in the longer term).

    The lower prices will hurt US drillers and Russia, Iran, Iraq and Ven. the most (S. Arabia is the only country that can effectively adjust supply - up or down). Most others are producing at max. capacity and will continue to do so. S. Arabia can live with low prices and at the same time, can impact competition (producers in the U.S.) as well as the countries (Iran/Iraq) who have a different Muslim majority.

    Where is the bottom. Good question...I expect in the next 2-4 weeks...but if I really knew, I would be rich...

  • retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Nov 28, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    Blood bath today...

  • Reply to

    OPEC meeting on NOVEMBER 27th

    by carol88888 Nov 20, 2014 2:12 PM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Nov 24, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    OPEC operates as follows: The 13 countries in OPEC all want prices above 100 (but not so high as to impair growth). Currently, many want a production cut to boost prices (they base their budgets on oil above 90-100). In fact, except for S. Arabia (and possibly Qatar), all will produce at max. capacity regardless of the production level. S. Arabia is the only country that will/can materially cut if they agree on a production cut...so, it is really up to them as to whether there is a cut. S.A. can survive with crude at current prices...the others cannot for long periods of time...so S.A. will determine how much pressure to put on U.S. producers.

    Will Iran agree to a ban on developing nuke weapons? I do not think so...unless the U.S. gives them enough concessions to allow them to believe they can continue to develop a deliverable bomb. Everything they have done so far is just an excuse to allow them to continue to develop their weapons... and to drag out negotiations while attempting to gain concessions.

    Production cuts could come now...but it is more probable that it will be three months before that happens...my view only...

  • Reply to

    Here is my guess. What is yours?

    by rmarfl Oct 18, 2014 11:00 PM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Oct 22, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    In a further change, a Dutch Qualification Letter is no longer accepted (to prevent the 15% tax on A share dividends). Thus. the only two options that I know of for avoiding the tax if have shares in a tax deferred account (IRA/401k) is to own B shares or to hire a tax recovery company to recover the tax. An exception is for employees/retirees who are in the Prov. Fund. A shares in the "company" accounts are exempt from the 15% tax on A shares. So far, I have not been able to determine why but suspect a special agreement between RDS and the Dutch Gov. which is not available to those not in the "company" accounts.

    It is frustrating how often the rules change.

    FWIW, I have been accumulating shares at these current prices. A great return on capital via dividends while waiting for share price to return to higher levels when the current events become less important/less of a concern. As always, need a lot of patience and avoidance of panic selling.

  • retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Oct 22, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    The difference is most likely due to differences in definition...with the higher estimates being the amount estimated in place and the lower estimates being the amount that can be produced (at a given cost).

  • Reply to

    Cramer Buying RDS for his Charity Trust

    by thebrassdude Sep 8, 2014 4:51 PM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Oct 21, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    In a further change, a Dutch Qualification Letter is no longer accepted (to prevent the 15% tax on A share dividends). Thus. the only two options for avoiding the tax if have shares in a tax deferred account (IRA/401k) is to own B shares or to hire a tax recovery company to recover the tax. An exception is for employees/retirees who are in the Prov. Fund. A shares in the "company" accounts are exempt from the 15% tax on A shares. So far, I have not been able to determine why but suspect a special agreement between RDS and the Dutch Gov. which is not available to those not in the "company" accounts.

    It is frustrating how often the rules change.

    I have been accumulating shares at these current prices. A great return on capital via dividends while waiting for share price to return to higher levels when the current events become less important/less of a concern. As always, need a lot of patience and to avoid panic selling.

  • Reply to

    SP500 Index make or break watch

    by rmarfl Sep 13, 2014 11:53 AM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Oct 2, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Ok, I admit I was wrong in believing 75 would hold for remainder of year...

  • Reply to

    SP500 Index make or break watch

    by rmarfl Sep 13, 2014 11:53 AM
    retiredguru3 retiredguru3 Sep 29, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Hold 10% of trading account in RDS-A options and 10% of RDS-B in long term account for dividends.

    Waiting for 75 to add RDS-A (but still don't think will hit that this year now that it did not hit for quarter). However, added CVX this morning when it hit my target below 120.

RDS-A
68.42-0.31(-0.45%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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