Also, wondering if someone with a better understanding of currency can outline the worst case currency risk. Thanks in advance for info on the fees and currency risk.
latest march nav is $150. current price is $95. i understand this is illiquid, but still, the discount of 50+% is absurd. wondering why no one has figured this out? also, wondering why company hasn't upped its dividend at least to 2% range to bring some attention to it?
these insiders exercised 245k worth of warrants within the last week - so at least they're trying. wondering if they might get part of the cap ex via a deal and need the warrant exercises to cover the difference. not a large amount of warrant exercising.
according to canadianinsider.com, 10.4 million warrants were sold so far (private disposition) by orifer/de trentinian. i believe the press release from orifer said that "up to" 140 million warrants could be sold to the buyer. from what i remember, the press release made it sound like orifer was ultimately going to sell the entire lot, but it did have the wording "up to". i am wondering if the warrant overhang effect (from exercising & then selling the common or from shorting the common) will go on for some time. the warrants were sold on may 10th and may 12th. today's price action, to me, indicates that it may very well be the warrant buyer.
what's interesting is that non-orifer insiders haven't sold much in awhile. the other thing, to me, that's interesting is this - if there's a deal on the horizon the way the company makes it seem in their press release, why isn't the warrant buyer waiting a week or so to either hedge their position or exercise and sell?
this is all just theory - just curious as to what explains the crazy price action.
to me, this boils down to how much I trust management estimates. it seems to be the upside could be as much as $5 - which is near a 10X upside scenario. if you believe management, the roaster replacement cost of 1 billion protects the down side. Even if an acquirer buys at 50% of replacement cost, minimal downside from here. The wildcard is the price of gold of course. I know there were previous targets before the news, but wondering what you guys think the upside to this stock is after the recent spate of news & the updated presentation on the company website?
I am a subscriber to sullivan's website. Unfortunately, stockmaster decided to lie in the headline to his post and then says "can't i ask the question?". the topic headline though, was not posed as a question. Let's all band together to help this guy, stockmaster, learn to stop lying and start becoming a better person.
stockmaster, you need to be honest with yourself and who you are in this moment. this is not, "can i not ask the question". instead, this is you lying and claiming that sullivan is out of igoi in the subject headline. there is a distinction between the two. my feeling is that you probably are doing this in the rest of your life also - lying to yourself and being dishonest with others. use this as an opportunity to turn your life around and do good for others as opposed to spreading lies on yahoo message boards. thanks. i wish you the best and i very much recommend you reach out to some people for help.
i am a subscriber. he is not out. the stock he is selling is not igoi. if you don't know what you're talking about stockmaster, don't title your post: Sullivan out of Igoi. it makes you sound like a liar as you're making statements that are not based on fact.
about the orifer transaction and the conference call delays. this price action is a bit too much to sweep under the rug unless there's definitely a deal in the works. anyone even know if baldock is working with yukon now or is he at monument?
this price action has to be either the warrant buyer, if there was one, or insiders in my opinion. i guess we'll find out soon if it's insiders or not.
mariusz, interesting take on newmont. i am hoping today's crazy action is just a fat finger as the one analyst pointed out. it seemed very strange - kind of reminded me of procter and gamble on the day of the flash crash. maybe just wishful thinking.
mariusz, thinking about a possible acquirer if production stops, how difficult do you think it would be for newmont to raise the 150 million? i know very little about newmont.
For what it's worth, analyst Daniel Lau from Hoch & Vos has this opinion about the plunge today:
"The Orifer news came out many days ago, yet the stock didn't plunge at that time. The stock plunged when someone sold 400k shares at 3:10pm today. Either someone knows something, or it was a fat finger... cuz people don't normally dump that much stock all at once without waiting for the bids to refill.
It seemed to me like poor execution. Perhaps Orifer sold warrants to someone who exercised and sold the stock without realising that the market couldn't support that many shares all at once?"
yeah. kind of interesting comment from jared. it seems like he might believe that there is no stipulation for warrant exercise on the orifer buyer. or maybe he does not know about the stipulation that the new buyer must exercise these warrants.