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GW Pharmaceuticals plc Message Board

rexobxip 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 11:28 AM Member since: Apr 27, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Myl

    by catchup440 Aug 2, 2015 9:19 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 3, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    As a shareholder, I hope you are right. If earnings are not exceptional/blow-out, Coury is going to look really dumb.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I am sticking with WFM as an investment for the long run, because as a shopper, I believe the shopping experience and quality of products is much better than Kroger, Publix or Trader Joes (which I also like a lot). I find that my level of waste from shopping purchases is lowest from WFM, the overall quality AND consistency of products, I find to be better. And the price issue is over-rated. On many items -- organic milk, yogurt, coffee, etc. -- WFM is cheaper than or on par with the competition. Some items are expensive, such as seafood -- but I find the quality to be better. Other stuff is just plain expensive... and then I don't buy it. Also WFM crushes the competition on sales/SF. They create a nicer, less congested feeling environment, and they are more productive/efficient. In the long run, I believe this will win out. And as for the competition in organic produce... really? Have you checked out the organic sections at KR and Publix... pathetic if you ask me. And don't get me started on Walmart's organic (though the company looks like it might be an attractive investment at these levels). How else does WFM crush the competition? They support LOCAL SMALL BUSINESS. WFM locally sources farmers, and lots of artisanal food and other product suppliers. They carry lots less junk food... reducing impulse buying... and have by far, the best customer service. Yes they have made missteps... the overcharge issue... but they also give you product for free if it is mis-priced.

    I am sticking with WFM as a shopper and investor.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Aug 3, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    If MYL disappoints on earnings, will that be enough for shareholders to hold Coury accountable? As a long term shareholder, I supported the company vision for a long time. But Coury has become erratic, anti-shareholder, and destructive to long-term shareholder value. His strange and hostile behavior warrants a change. The problem with some people and power is that they start to believe their own press. Coury has gotten way to full of himself. TEVA totally outplayed Mylan and proved that they are top dog in the generic space. Coury overplayed his hand to the detriment of all shareholders AND stakeholders. Mylan's negotiating power is diminished with insurers and other takeover candidates... whether Mylan is the acquirer or the acquired. We cant afford to take over Perrigo now (too much dilution) and are unlikely to get an offer like TEVA would have paid... mid to high 80s... which would now represent an almost 60% premium to current trading levels. Anyone looking to buy would undoubtedly offer low 70s... which would represent a 30% premium to where we currently trade. Coury had no plan B. For his sake (and ours) MYL better crush earnings, or we are headed back to the 40s.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    I disagree... just stay away from the Shanghai Exchange. China is an enormous market that is not even near saturation. US ADRs are getting unfairly tarnished -- Baidu sells at a discount to many of its US counterparts... and it is growing faster and has lots of untapped market to expand into.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets be honest about upcoming report.

    by jgeorge7629 Jul 30, 2015 9:54 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    You are presenting a bull case... So why do you have this rated a strong sell? And 100 sales = gross revs of less than 1.5 million... barely a dent in expenses. Until they are doing 10k+ of these a year, ETRM will continue to bleed money. Don't get me wrong... I am sitting on a few thousand shares with a high basis... but at this point I have to be realistic. And the outlook is not optimistic. Still at this price, it is not worth selling, so I will stick it out in the hope that ETRM's lottery #s come up.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    I am holding long for now. But unlike you, I am not inspired by a report of 2 people having the procedure. We need thousands of procedures to move the needle, and there is no indication that this will happen any time soon (if ever). No point in selling at this level and locking in the loss, but with fresh ammo, one might be better off buying lottery tickets than ETRM. Very disappointed in management's inability to execute... or communicate.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    MMs did the same thing to FB yesterday. Not right, but not a surprise

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    Sorry you held...

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    GPRO is a hardware manufacturer and very richly valued based on hardware metrics. YELP got slaughtered. FB had great earnings and went down... what are you talking about?

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    Spoke to the CFO today. No date or price set for secondary (which they filed for in the spring). It does not seem well organized or thought out.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Sometimes this stock perplexes me... makes a strong breakout move (on no visible news)... then gives a lot of it back (on no visible news). Who is manipulating this stock?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    those that sold will be sorry

    by vicsuabe Jul 28, 2015 9:39 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I am holding, but still think you are wrong. Management needed to let this build a base for announcing this secondary... suspect we will (unfortunately) dwindle to the 13-15 range... and hopefully find support there. I will be seriously #$%$ off if we go back to single digits. Still I am holding... but question managements judgement to throw out a secondary on a gap/spike up. Should have let more folks buy in at this level and perhaps allow to trend higher on positive sentiment. It's premature and feels a bit desperate. All this move does is tell buyers, "hold off, there's going to be dilution... you can buy in lower." Terrible message. We've already lost almost 15%. Please tell me why I'm wrong... because I want to be.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    There is something more than meets the eye with Viacom. Forget analysts targets... this stock just keeps trending lower and it is unclear what the negative perception is. Feeling is they are losing market share and perhaps don't have enough strength in their brands. Nick and MTV have great histories, but programming appears to be an issue. Also a sense that they are not well situated for mobile, and Redstone is not pushing to update their technology and reach. There are a lot of good pieces to Viacom, but I feel like it is an old house that needs renovations before it becomes unfixable... and management is not paying attention. Would like to add to my position... (I've done well with my other media DIS, TWX, AMCX)... but just don't see any support for VIAB.

  • Reply to

    So why stay in Biogen?

    by vo2_com Jul 24, 2015 11:36 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Why do you rate this a buy/strong buy?... clearly for you it is a trade. And what is the point of gloating while others are getting slaughtered? Personally, I did not own BIIB and got in around $311. But I think it is a good long-term holding and plan to keep it a few years. If you make a good trade, more power to you... but no need to crow about it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any thoughts of ABT aquireing MYL

    by alintel10 Jul 27, 2015 1:57 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    They own Mylan stock because they sold their generic div. to Mylan, and in addition to cash, they got stock. That, however, is why it made no sense for them to oppose the Teva deal... unless they were simply trying to avoid a big short term capital gain. Their opposition may have simply been a book-keeping issue.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Hard to figure out all the comments on this board, but mudslinging and name-calling aside, to me the issue is not that the deal failed, but that Coury acted in bad faith, and not in the interest of shareholders or stakeholders (other than himself and his management team). Had he entered into negotiations, he could have made an effort to secure the best deal possible and then had himself and the board make there recommendations (yea or nay) before putting it up for a shareholder vote. Now he has not only thrown away about 50+% upside value to shareholders, but he has also compromised the companies competitive and strategic standing. Somehow, he thought it was okay to try to force Perrigo into a deal, but that Teva should not attempt to use similar tactics with Mylan. And for the record, Teva has been much more respectful in their business dealings with both Mylan and Allergan than Mylan has been with Teva or Perrigo. I am a long term shareholder and had respected management until now. All the actions of the past year have been against the best interest of shareholders.

    1. The tax inversion created a huge tax bill for shareholders... potentially at a value greater than the near term value of the stock. In essense, one may have to pay taxes on monies you can't recoup even by selling the stock.

    2. Failing to negotiate in good faith with TEVA

    3. Botching the Perrigo deal by overvaluing the fair value price of Mylan shares. To make this deal happen now will create too much dilution. It is now more a marriage of equals. Though would be interesting if Perrigo decided to take over Mylan. I might prefer their management at this point.

    4. Failure to have a Plan B. Mylan shares are imploding, and it doesn't seem Coury had any anticipation of this.

    Robert Coury clearly let his successes go to his head and he has acted in an arrogant and destructive manner towards his shareholders. It is time for him to go.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Valuation reset

    by rocinonte Jul 26, 2015 7:38 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 26, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    All insider selling is pre-scheduled. Insiders hold lots of options and sell when they exercise to diversify their portfolios. I'd be more worried if this was a small cap with no earnings and insiders were selling. With a P/E under 20, this is a real company with real earnings and okay - excellent growth prospects... and the products they sell are not dependent on discretionary spending. Can't help but feel there is excessive pessimism around this stock... and that bolsters a bull case scenario.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Let me understand - was it all bad?

    by jserper Jul 25, 2015 12:31 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    What is it with people's math? Guidance was not halved... growth was halved. Revs are not declining 50%... they are growing 7-8% vs 14-16%... so guidance was reduced about 7%... though the company continues to grow... albeit slower. You are correct when you say growth lowered... very misleading when you say guidance halved. Just don't want to panic folks who already seem to be in a frenzy. While this was bad, I personally believe we will look back at this price as a buying opportunity. BIIB still has good products and a good pipeline (if not looking as good as a few days ago). Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cramer strikes again...

    by gollywogazoo Jul 24, 2015 9:14 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 12:11 AM Flag

    And BIIB's Alzheimer drug may still pan out. There is still a lot of testing to be done.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BIIB should be an $800 stock

    by jserper Jul 24, 2015 8:15 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    You are talking about a company with medium to high growth (that potentially could still be explosive, and a forward P/E of 18... and you are saying it is going to go down 25-75%? Biogen is already down over 35%... and maybe that is justified... maybe it got ahead of itself... but this is not the tech crash of 2001. These are real companies, with huge profits, and enormous pipelines of future pharmaceuticals. I am more worried about these smaller (1-10 billion dollar) biotechs that have NO products and are hemorrhaging cash quarter after quarter. Those are the companies that are at risk. BIIB, Celgene, Amgen, Regeneron, etc. are cash cows, with low P/Es relative to their growth. And what they sell is in most cases not discretionary. You can live without an Iphone, but some people can't live without their meds.

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