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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

rexobxip 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 3:23 PM Member since: Apr 27, 1999
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  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    There is something more than meets the eye with Viacom. Forget analysts targets... this stock just keeps trending lower and it is unclear what the negative perception is. Feeling is they are losing market share and perhaps don't have enough strength in their brands. Nick and MTV have great histories, but programming appears to be an issue. Also a sense that they are not well situated for mobile, and Redstone is not pushing to update their technology and reach. There are a lot of good pieces to Viacom, but I feel like it is an old house that needs renovations before it becomes unfixable... and management is not paying attention. Would like to add to my position... (I've done well with my other media DIS, TWX, AMCX)... but just don't see any support for VIAB.

  • Reply to

    So why stay in Biogen?

    by vo2_com Jul 24, 2015 11:36 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Why do you rate this a buy/strong buy?... clearly for you it is a trade. And what is the point of gloating while others are getting slaughtered? Personally, I did not own BIIB and got in around $311. But I think it is a good long-term holding and plan to keep it a few years. If you make a good trade, more power to you... but no need to crow about it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Any thoughts of ABT aquireing MYL

    by alintel10 Jul 27, 2015 1:57 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    They own Mylan stock because they sold their generic div. to Mylan, and in addition to cash, they got stock. That, however, is why it made no sense for them to oppose the Teva deal... unless they were simply trying to avoid a big short term capital gain. Their opposition may have simply been a book-keeping issue.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Hard to figure out all the comments on this board, but mudslinging and name-calling aside, to me the issue is not that the deal failed, but that Coury acted in bad faith, and not in the interest of shareholders or stakeholders (other than himself and his management team). Had he entered into negotiations, he could have made an effort to secure the best deal possible and then had himself and the board make there recommendations (yea or nay) before putting it up for a shareholder vote. Now he has not only thrown away about 50+% upside value to shareholders, but he has also compromised the companies competitive and strategic standing. Somehow, he thought it was okay to try to force Perrigo into a deal, but that Teva should not attempt to use similar tactics with Mylan. And for the record, Teva has been much more respectful in their business dealings with both Mylan and Allergan than Mylan has been with Teva or Perrigo. I am a long term shareholder and had respected management until now. All the actions of the past year have been against the best interest of shareholders.

    1. The tax inversion created a huge tax bill for shareholders... potentially at a value greater than the near term value of the stock. In essense, one may have to pay taxes on monies you can't recoup even by selling the stock.

    2. Failing to negotiate in good faith with TEVA

    3. Botching the Perrigo deal by overvaluing the fair value price of Mylan shares. To make this deal happen now will create too much dilution. It is now more a marriage of equals. Though would be interesting if Perrigo decided to take over Mylan. I might prefer their management at this point.

    4. Failure to have a Plan B. Mylan shares are imploding, and it doesn't seem Coury had any anticipation of this.

    Robert Coury clearly let his successes go to his head and he has acted in an arrogant and destructive manner towards his shareholders. It is time for him to go.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Valuation reset

    by rocinonte Jul 26, 2015 7:38 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 26, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    All insider selling is pre-scheduled. Insiders hold lots of options and sell when they exercise to diversify their portfolios. I'd be more worried if this was a small cap with no earnings and insiders were selling. With a P/E under 20, this is a real company with real earnings and okay - excellent growth prospects... and the products they sell are not dependent on discretionary spending. Can't help but feel there is excessive pessimism around this stock... and that bolsters a bull case scenario.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Let me understand - was it all bad?

    by jserper Jul 25, 2015 12:31 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    What is it with people's math? Guidance was not halved... growth was halved. Revs are not declining 50%... they are growing 7-8% vs 14-16%... so guidance was reduced about 7%... though the company continues to grow... albeit slower. You are correct when you say growth lowered... very misleading when you say guidance halved. Just don't want to panic folks who already seem to be in a frenzy. While this was bad, I personally believe we will look back at this price as a buying opportunity. BIIB still has good products and a good pipeline (if not looking as good as a few days ago). Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cramer strikes again...

    by gollywogazoo Jul 24, 2015 9:14 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 12:11 AM Flag

    And BIIB's Alzheimer drug may still pan out. There is still a lot of testing to be done.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BIIB should be an $800 stock

    by jserper Jul 24, 2015 8:15 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 25, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    You are talking about a company with medium to high growth (that potentially could still be explosive, and a forward P/E of 18... and you are saying it is going to go down 25-75%? Biogen is already down over 35%... and maybe that is justified... maybe it got ahead of itself... but this is not the tech crash of 2001. These are real companies, with huge profits, and enormous pipelines of future pharmaceuticals. I am more worried about these smaller (1-10 billion dollar) biotechs that have NO products and are hemorrhaging cash quarter after quarter. Those are the companies that are at risk. BIIB, Celgene, Amgen, Regeneron, etc. are cash cows, with low P/Es relative to their growth. And what they sell is in most cases not discretionary. You can live without an Iphone, but some people can't live without their meds.

  • Reply to

    Glad I Sold at $478/sh

    by brainboy262 Jul 24, 2015 5:54 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 24, 2015 11:58 PM Flag

    This is what a scammer brainless apparently is... on June 12th he posted:

    I Just Put My Entire 401k Into Walter Energy
    by brainboy262 • Jun 12, 2015 5:36 PM Flag
    Let's rock

    Walter Energy was a 27 cent stock that was delisted and trading stopped on July 7, 2015
    Apparently brainless just likes to post #$%$. Don't let him get to you. Looking through his posts, I suspect he is not an investor at all...
    Good luck to all real investers!

  • Reply to

    Glad I Sold at $478/sh

    by brainboy262 Jul 24, 2015 5:54 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 24, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    Hey, give the guy some props... he might be freakin' brilliant... or a freakin' liar: went through some of his other posts... there was:
    "Glad I sold at $68/sh"... couldn't figure out the stock... and my favorite posted yesterday 7/23/15:
    "Glad I sold at $62/sh"... this was Avalanche technologies (AAVL), which was at 14+ yesterday when brainboy posted... and only briefly touched 62 back in January. So likely his brainlessboy262 posts are intended to make people feel bad... however, it's unlikely that he actually made these sales. Not sure what the thrill of this is for him... but perhaps it is to cover for inadequacies in his own portfolio performance, or perhaps other personal shortcomings. Good luck to all legitimate investors.

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 24, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    When traders who are short the stock respond to your questions, they are going to bash it. The reality is SNDK had trouble executing for 2 quarters and paid a hefty price. They seem to be addressing the issues they have and had a strong quarter. I would expect the share price to continue recovering from here, provided the overall market cooperates, but don't expect the shorts to agree -- folks like renter1999 and detectfraud007 don't own this stock, and are likely short in some manner. Therefore, it is in their interest to unnerve shareholders in the hope of instigating selling and driving the stock back down. Don't expect them to in any way view SNDK proactively. Good luck to all Sandisk INVESTORS!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    for those who think is a buying opportunity

    by tnorman61 Jul 24, 2015 1:18 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 24, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    I agree that this has value at these levels (full disclosure: I bought a few shares today), but your math is way off. There was almost a 50% drop in revenue growth... from ~16% to ~8%. This means lowering revenue expectations 8%... but GROWTH was cut in half. And for some speculators growth is everything. I am guessing traders and maybe some hedge funds bailed, but institutions/mutual funds are likely holding their positions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    should I sell?

    by ducheau Jul 24, 2015 1:05 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 24, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    Considering this was a 480 stock a few months back, it depends on how low you think it will go. Me... I am taking the plunge and adding to my BIIB at this price. Will it go lower in the short term? Maybe. But think this will look like a bargain long term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    look at all the insiders

    by paullemmon758 Jul 23, 2015 1:21 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Insiders can only sell in a prescheduled manner. They can't look at the jump in price and decide to sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • One way to stop the shorts is to stop them from getting your shares. Many accounts are set up as margin accounts, and when you buy shares, the brokerage lists them as margin (...even when you paid cash). That allows the broker to lend your shares to a short seller who helps drive down the share price. If you are not currently using the leverage from those shares to buy on margin, you can call your broker and move those shares into a cash account. Then the brokerage is not allowed to lend your shares to short sellers. This prevents shorts from piling in and manipulating a stock. So please, if you don't want your shares shorted, check with your broker as to whether your shares are held in a cash or margin account.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    at this hour, almost everyone who bought after 7AM

    by qp6266 Jul 23, 2015 12:45 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Oops! It is going in the wrong direction... UP! Great exit for shorts today... before this hits $70. The only manipulation is by day traders. SNDK is 95% held by institutions and mutual funds... and they are not trading and manipulating -- people who short and post false info are the terrorists, not the analysts. The analysts are just bumbling prognosticators who let you know about changes after the fact. E.g. analysts were not screaming sell when SNDK was 100+, but piled on as it got down to the 50s. No one I saw was saying buy ahead of earnings, but some will now... and after it climbs back into the 80s, they will all pile on. The real reason to buy SNDK is that they are a tech leader in NAND, FLASH and SSD. I never trust shorts, only longs. Shorts are the vultures of the investing world... IMHO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    at this hour, almost everyone who bought after 7AM

    by qp6266 Jul 23, 2015 12:45 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Ignore desperate shorts! They are getting hit by massive margin calls today and will say anything to try to scare people. This stock is going back to the 70s by end of August -- provided the overall market is stable. The only reason qp6266 is begging you to short is because s/he doesn't have the cash to do it anymore and wants you to foolishly risk your money to try and save his/her #$%$. Go long!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lesson learned....sell and short altogether

    by dimsum3214 Jul 23, 2015 12:26 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Anyone who posts irrelevant and negative info and says "I'm not bashing..." is definitely bashing. First of all, what stocks did after the financial meltdown of 2008-9 is not a basis for now... unless we have another meltdown (which is always possible). Lots of stocks got battered in the financial meltdown. Micron was down to 2 and change (for the record, SNDK only went to ~8... not 4). FCX went from 60 to 12 then back to 60... before recently plunging to 13+. The revered Apple went from 28 to 12... presenting an amazing buying opportunity. If people choose to sell their Sandisk, I respect that. That is not what you are about. You are someone who shorts stocks... and perhaps are on the verge of losing all your savings on today's margin call. That is one reason I do not short... the other is that most shorts are betting on the negative and attempting to destroy value(at least the ones who post). Sorry about your losses today. Better to cover and invest your money long (even if not in SNDK). Shorting leads to quicker and more drastic losses of "savings" than being long. You never get a margin call on long shares... even when they drop in value. That gives a chance to recover as SNDK is doing now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Is it going to be $50 or $60 tomorrow

    by quattro_78746 Jul 21, 2015 10:11 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Looking like 70s by August.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 23, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Constructive post! And a constructive quarter by Sandisk. Sandisk has a technological edge over most of the companies in the SSD and NAND space. They haven't always executed in terms of positioning their products and being able to ramp up to meet customer demand, but they have maintained their tech leadership.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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