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Time Warner Inc. Message Board

rexobxip 91 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 5, 2015 3:09 PM Member since: Apr 27, 1999
  • Reply to

    New SA article on ETRM

    by biotia Aug 11, 2015 10:33 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 11, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Problem as I see it, is that even if sales go up... they won't have enough cash flow to cover costs. They have maybe 2 quarters to sell this dog and recoup something... or somehow get the share price up as they will have to do another round of financing... and the current share price won't support it. In all likelihood this company is headed to bankruptcy. I feel terrible for folks who are heavily invested in this... (and not thrilled for myself as I hold a few thousand shares).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Warren Buffett

    by slimhere3000 Aug 10, 2015 1:07 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 10, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    That is what I was thinking. If 20% of sales are coming from specialty products, that makes AA's specialty division half the size of PCP. Valued per the the Buffet deal, that part of AA's business would be worth 16-18 billion... giving the commodity aluminum business a valuation of negative 4-6 billion. AA's balance sheet shows more stockholder equity and tangible assets than PCP, yet AA's market cap is 1/3 of the value of the PCP deal. AA is being held down by low aluminum prices AND the perception that they are no more than an aluminum miner. Specialty business gets no value... yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse says bull !@#$% to the bears

    by diazyuma Aug 2, 2015 2:10 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 6, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    So why does Netflix deserve 400x forward earnings... you pay for growth. Are you shorting Netflix? That would take a strong constitution.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Aug 6, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Enough with the hype / pumping. First of all TWX is selling for 79+ and is responding pretty well late in the day. Second, at 200, TWX would have a forward P/E of 35... and that assumes a 50% premium to Disney. Yes we got beat up, and yes this could be a $90-$100 stock... maybe $110... but enough with the hyperbole.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm Out

    by learn2create Aug 6, 2015 11:57 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 6, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    They don't have the cash to make it until insurance coverage. They don't have the share price to raise more funds. Management will continue to take the largest compensation packages they can until this is bled dry... At this point one has to assume this ends in bankruptcy. Still at this price, it is little more than an option on some fluke that drives the price up. So I'm holding... sorry to all who believed in this dog.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Aug 6, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    I bought after the earnings debacle, but the action today looks terrible. Anyone have a stop price on this stock? Wondering where support is and where we go lower.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Aug 5, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    First off I own both... and am bullish on both. But TWX had the MUCH better quarter. DIS beat by .03 ($1.45 vs. $1.42), and MISSED by a little on revenues. TWX CRUSHED both. $1.25 earnings vs. projected $1.03 (a 20+% beat)... and Revs of 7.3B vs analyst expected 6.9B. DIS killed the whole sector, but frankly, I don't get it. At the end of the day, Netflix is a distribution channel, and the barrier to entry to that market is low relative to content. DIS and TWX are content... and I still believe content is king. NFLX has a forward P/E of almost 400x earnings. I don't care what anyone says... I would not touch that. What do they have that is proprietary? Time will tell.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by catchup440 Aug 2, 2015 9:19 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Aug 3, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    As a shareholder, I hope you are right. If earnings are not exceptional/blow-out, Coury is going to look really dumb.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I am sticking with WFM as an investment for the long run, because as a shopper, I believe the shopping experience and quality of products is much better than Kroger, Publix or Trader Joes (which I also like a lot). I find that my level of waste from shopping purchases is lowest from WFM, the overall quality AND consistency of products, I find to be better. And the price issue is over-rated. On many items -- organic milk, yogurt, coffee, etc. -- WFM is cheaper than or on par with the competition. Some items are expensive, such as seafood -- but I find the quality to be better. Other stuff is just plain expensive... and then I don't buy it. Also WFM crushes the competition on sales/SF. They create a nicer, less congested feeling environment, and they are more productive/efficient. In the long run, I believe this will win out. And as for the competition in organic produce... really? Have you checked out the organic sections at KR and Publix... pathetic if you ask me. And don't get me started on Walmart's organic (though the company looks like it might be an attractive investment at these levels). How else does WFM crush the competition? They support LOCAL SMALL BUSINESS. WFM locally sources farmers, and lots of artisanal food and other product suppliers. They carry lots less junk food... reducing impulse buying... and have by far, the best customer service. Yes they have made missteps... the overcharge issue... but they also give you product for free if it is mis-priced.

    I am sticking with WFM as a shopper and investor.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Aug 3, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    If MYL disappoints on earnings, will that be enough for shareholders to hold Coury accountable? As a long term shareholder, I supported the company vision for a long time. But Coury has become erratic, anti-shareholder, and destructive to long-term shareholder value. His strange and hostile behavior warrants a change. The problem with some people and power is that they start to believe their own press. Coury has gotten way to full of himself. TEVA totally outplayed Mylan and proved that they are top dog in the generic space. Coury overplayed his hand to the detriment of all shareholders AND stakeholders. Mylan's negotiating power is diminished with insurers and other takeover candidates... whether Mylan is the acquirer or the acquired. We cant afford to take over Perrigo now (too much dilution) and are unlikely to get an offer like TEVA would have paid... mid to high 80s... which would now represent an almost 60% premium to current trading levels. Anyone looking to buy would undoubtedly offer low 70s... which would represent a 30% premium to where we currently trade. Coury had no plan B. For his sake (and ours) MYL better crush earnings, or we are headed back to the 40s.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    I disagree... just stay away from the Shanghai Exchange. China is an enormous market that is not even near saturation. US ADRs are getting unfairly tarnished -- Baidu sells at a discount to many of its US counterparts... and it is growing faster and has lots of untapped market to expand into.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lets be honest about upcoming report.

    by jgeorge7629 Jul 30, 2015 9:54 PM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    You are presenting a bull case... So why do you have this rated a strong sell? And 100 sales = gross revs of less than 1.5 million... barely a dent in expenses. Until they are doing 10k+ of these a year, ETRM will continue to bleed money. Don't get me wrong... I am sitting on a few thousand shares with a high basis... but at this point I have to be realistic. And the outlook is not optimistic. Still at this price, it is not worth selling, so I will stick it out in the hope that ETRM's lottery #s come up.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 31, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    I am holding long for now. But unlike you, I am not inspired by a report of 2 people having the procedure. We need thousands of procedures to move the needle, and there is no indication that this will happen any time soon (if ever). No point in selling at this level and locking in the loss, but with fresh ammo, one might be better off buying lottery tickets than ETRM. Very disappointed in management's inability to execute... or communicate.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    MMs did the same thing to FB yesterday. Not right, but not a surprise

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    Sorry you held...

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 30, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    GPRO is a hardware manufacturer and very richly valued based on hardware metrics. YELP got slaughtered. FB had great earnings and went down... what are you talking about?

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

    Spoke to the CFO today. No date or price set for secondary (which they filed for in the spring). It does not seem well organized or thought out.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip by rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Sometimes this stock perplexes me... makes a strong breakout move (on no visible news)... then gives a lot of it back (on no visible news). Who is manipulating this stock?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    those that sold will be sorry

    by vicsuabe Jul 28, 2015 9:39 AM
    rexobxip rexobxip Jul 29, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I am holding, but still think you are wrong. Management needed to let this build a base for announcing this secondary... suspect we will (unfortunately) dwindle to the 13-15 range... and hopefully find support there. I will be seriously #$%$ off if we go back to single digits. Still I am holding... but question managements judgement to throw out a secondary on a gap/spike up. Should have let more folks buy in at this level and perhaps allow to trend higher on positive sentiment. It's premature and feels a bit desperate. All this move does is tell buyers, "hold off, there's going to be dilution... you can buy in lower." Terrible message. We've already lost almost 15%. Please tell me why I'm wrong... because I want to be.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rexobxip rexobxip Jul 27, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    There is something more than meets the eye with Viacom. Forget analysts targets... this stock just keeps trending lower and it is unclear what the negative perception is. Feeling is they are losing market share and perhaps don't have enough strength in their brands. Nick and MTV have great histories, but programming appears to be an issue. Also a sense that they are not well situated for mobile, and Redstone is not pushing to update their technology and reach. There are a lot of good pieces to Viacom, but I feel like it is an old house that needs renovations before it becomes unfixable... and management is not paying attention. Would like to add to my position... (I've done well with my other media DIS, TWX, AMCX)... but just don't see any support for VIAB.

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