Fun to read everyone's speculation, but right now we are at $2.50, and while I believe that weight loss is a huge field, with lots of potential, who knows what will happen. For the near term, I'd be happy with 2.75
Your logic is skewed. If you take away 50% of a company's revenues, it does not translate that costs come down commensurately. Ariad may go from the prospect of being profitable, to little opportunity for profitability.
Some stocks miss by a penny on PROFITS, and take a serious haircut. So the logic that a loss of 50% of your potential market would drop the stock price 50% is faulty. Look at a company like SODA, missed by less than 1% on Revs, 20% on net profit, is growing 40% YOY, with a PE of around 17, and the stock dropped 25%.
Now I am long on Ariad, but only own a few hundred shares, as I have been burned by scenarios like this one before. This is an extremely high risk play... with the potential for great reward (let's hope). If you can affford to lose 200K or so, against the prospect of making a couple of million, then you are well positioned. If you can't afford the loss, then I would scale back my position. This stock could rise or fall without notice -- we could be at 3 or 13 next week if any news breaks and/or sentiment shifts.
Me, I never go short, as I don't like the mentality of betting against something -- that, and the unlimited risk. As a long, your risk is limited to what you put into a stock, as a short, your risk has no cap. I rate Ariad a Buy as I think the upside has more room than the downside, but it is still a very High Risk play.
Sometimes it makes sense to recoup your investment. With CSIQ, you could have held on to 25% of your shares, walked away with a good profit and still been in the game. It is not all or nothing.
I am long and will stay long for now, but all the chatter and misinformation and name-calling sucks.
What is behind this move. There is no news. If shorts are covering, then who is selling? Because the volume is outrageous. If this were real short covering, wouldn't we have more of a squeeze and be up more? How do we know this is not institutions creating a rumor to dump their shares. We have seen this game before... in the last week. Ariad jumps to the 7s.... ends the day back in the 6s.
Where is the information? I want more information and less noise. Would appreciate serious, knowledgeable replies.
Or big sellers are floating rumors to get out. Seems rumor driven and like every time this pops lately, we are going back down.
We just did a whole days volume in 0ne Hour. And while Ariad is still up $.51, we are well off the highs. I can see shorts buying... and others accumulating (if this is real)... but who is selling all these shares? Think about that. That is very concerning. If folks weren't selling, we would have gapped up.
You are looking for meaning in tea leaves. I am long Ariad... but very few companies respond to rumors... even negative ones. I have spoken to shareholder relations officers several times in the past and asked why they do not refute rumors. They do not want to spend their time with that. Just addressing a rumor brings a certain credibility. If there was really actual talk about a buyout at $20... or $15... or $12, this stock would be a lot higher. And of course CNBC doesn't want to promote rumors.
Though as an owner of Ariad, I hope a buyer/partner does step in with a big premium.
Because this is not a true short squeeze. Someone is selling... and they are selling a lot of shares. This is a case of sell on the rumor for someone with a huge stake, and while I am staying long my little stake, it makes me very uncomfortable. This has all the makings of a classic short squeeze, except someone is providing a LOT of liquidity.
Poster's implication is that "seller" is a short. If they believed this "rumor" was true, they would be buying(covering), not selling(shorting). This is why I dislike longs who pump as much as shorts. If the rumor is true, this will go up regardless. All the chatter and gloating is unnecessary.
Would appreciate facts and info. The idea of someone selling 189,000 shares to keep the price down is a little suspect. If you wanted the price down, that would imply you were short and would use those shares to cover.
My fear is that institutions and large holders manufactured this rumor to get out at a better price. Putting all these shares on the market without artificially tweeking demand would have sent this stock plummeting.
I am long, and happy to see this go up -- but I still want someone to answer the question:
"Who is selling millions of shares?"
Suggests absolutely nothing. Cos don't comment on rumors. Let's say this is a rumor and nothing more, and they say, "we are not interested in Ariad." Next week Lilly goes after ABC Med, and someone asks, is this a rumor? What are they going to do? Lie? Say, no, we are going after ABC med.
Companies don't comment... so it means NOTHING.
You are so wrong. Cos do not comment. If you comment, then you have to always comment. Since that is no ones policy. Companies never (or very rarely) comment. And if they say something wrong, they can end up with shareholder lawsuits. So again, no comments means absolutely nothing.
more than 1/4 of the companies float? You would have to be crazy. And the supply of shares to borrow would have dried up based on the volume. I am concerned that there is something else going on here... and I fear institutional dumping. Unfortunately, it is the only explanation that makes sense... otherwise I think we'd be a lot higher based on the volume and alleged demand. Someone is selling almost as fast as people are buying.
That makes no sense. Only reason someone would create "fake news" would be to prop up the price so they could sell. In that case they wouldn't want to keep the price down... it would simply be the volume of shares they were selling that would keep the price down. And if you are correct then this will end with a crash.