He did say that there would be no additional offerings going forward as stated. I have written plenty of $17.50 puts. That's where i'll own this MLP if it gets there. If not, even better.
I think they may not get to full coverage at a 2.40 distribution which is at
the lowest end of guidance this year.
NG prices are weakening, especially weak in PA/OH area...a $1.50 discount to the
Heny Hub, i estimate. NGL's have been weak for months, so I expect even with pretty good hedging how they will increase the disty above $2.40 anytime soon.
The stock could go to 26 if they don't get back to 1.1 coverage which
should be their goal before increasing distributions going forward. Solid
management team knows what to do.
It really could go to 30. Even after divestiture of midstream and reinvestment
into appropriate long lived assets, the coverage ratio gets back to 1 in 2016.
And with a 3.08 distribution, the share price could settle at 30.
If they can show at DCF at above 1.1 and growing potential,
regarding the latest acquisition and on several other fronts
this stock should be $24 in a hurry.
There is going to be many opportunities to bolt-on to existing
assets and they are small enough that $200 million deals make a difference.
We could get to $25 this year if the LP raise are going well and they get the distribution to go to $2.60 or .65 quarterly...end of year quarter.
In 2015, ARP could be a $25+ stock with an 11% distribution yield...yes,
that's $2.75 a share....All it needs to do bolt-on wisely, and execute reasonably
ARP is a "show me" stock.
We have a very competent senior management team with
unusual opportunities (such as the public LP program)
for an upstream MLP. However,
we also have a somewhat reckless CEO, completely driven by
ego which has hurt credibility. Last year's purchase of those methane
beds with a 9-1/4% loan rate shows its stupidity.
Imagine had we purchased more assets in the Barnett, or beat
BBEP's purchase of those oily assets with growth attached?
I believe that there is a good chance of doing very well with a mid- 20's stock price and an
11% yield to complement. I hope we make some smart, smaller
aquistions going forward and simply execute.
Ed Cohen should retire or be fired. We could apply those millions in compensation
I think the year end tax selling ended yesterday for this stock.
Looking forward to a great year back to mid 20's and small, but
significant acquisitions going forward.
I have been listening to the calls and today's conference as well.
My assessment is that the President, CFO and Operations senior
manager are all smart. If we can hedge well into the $4's, even the latest
acquisition is a winner. I think there will be many opportunities to increase
DCF going forward. I think the board and the competent management of ARP
will keep our Sociopathic Chairman from acting stupid.