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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rgchjr1945 171 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 13, 2015 11:25 AM Member since: Sep 27, 2011
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  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 13, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    FB trades at 40X next years earnings and has a market cap of $217 million. I would say it is trading at a lofty price right now. Hopefully it will have good on the 28th when they announce earnings or you will see more backing and filling. This is now a real company that trades on results not hope. If you want hope buy a small biotech that doesn't make any money but supposedly has a great future.

  • Reply to

    CELG is setting up for another breakout

    by dividendseeker Jan 8, 2015 8:24 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 13, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    This is no accident as I mentioned on another tread. It is because of the upgraded earnings forecast by the company which happened at the beginning of the conference. Earnings and news associated with future earnings drive stock prices not BS. That is why there are months where the stock trades in a range. The question is how high do we go before we hit the top of this range. The you will have 1st quarter earnings to look forward to. And thus it goes with CELG rolling off new products into the foreseeable future.

  • The presentation can be listened to via the REGN corp web site. I listened to Celgene's presentation this AM. IF REGN's follows the same ilk we should get a good idea where all their products are heading. CELG up dates guidance on theirs. I own both companies.

  • Reply to

    CELG trades in its own universe

    by traderbob40 Jan 12, 2015 1:21 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    Without overall market valuation expansion it is very difficult to move stocks between earnings reports. You need some great piece of news (which will effect earnings) like today's earnings projection by the company. The actual release and accompanying conference call should also lift the stock higher. Not long after the 3rd quarter report CELG jumped to $105 and has traded up to $119 and back down. This will give us a base for the next 3 months of 2015. When you look at a chart of last year the 1st half in general was slow but then you see those quarterly bump ups.

  • Reply to

    will never see 118 in 10 lifetimes

    by get_rich_carefully Dec 10, 2014 1:59 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Hit $118 today. I thought we would never see $118 again. Based on updated earnings, I think we will only see $118 in the rear view mirror!!!

  • Reply to


    by dividendseeker Jan 12, 2015 11:13 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Take $12.50 and give it a 20X and 25X handle and you get a price between $250 and $312. I would consider that as a base because these guys always under promise and over deliver. I use these lower rates because as this company gets bigger and bigger they start to run into the law of large numbers, so the growth rate may slow some. When we get out there they may even start to pay a dividend. The wild card is that they continue to but back shares, so you would have to adjust even my very conservative numbers higher to compensate. We are talking a market cap numer like AAPL or GOOG.

    You also have to acknowledge that they are helping a lot of people. The Crohns disease therapy is really huge. I have known people that suffer through it and this important for them. We sometimes lose sight of the fact that while we may be making a lot of money that our investment is helping a lot of folks. At the end of the day CELG is a beautiful thing.

  • Reply to

    celg raising guidance and beating estimates

    by bavaris7 Jan 12, 2015 10:55 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Oil stocks and the big biotechs are in the market index ETF's. Momentum traders in the ETF's kill all stocks. Because the PE's on these stocks are high investors just holding CELG or REGN etc. sell because they know that the market is dragging them down. They may buy back in when the price drops or get into another quick mover. All these people are not investors but speculators. Back in the 1990's AMGN lost 20% of it's value in one day due to an article planted in the WSJ. I owned the stock and new the data were lies. I went on to make 10 times my investment, only selling to pay college tuition for children. If you are an investor and know what you own then don't worry about the noise. I just listened to the kick off speech by our CEO and this company is even a bigger monster than it was yesterday.

  • Reply to

    How do these biotech stocks

    by exit161gsp Jan 9, 2015 10:08 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    All stocks trade on future earnings. The percent change year over year is used to determine valuation. The market also likes predictability and if you can forecast a few years into the future investors are better able to determine valuation. In CELG's case they seem to underestimate and over deliver.

  • Reply to

    Capex budget for 2015 too large

    by jwsull Jan 7, 2015 4:01 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 12, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    CPChem debt. The JV operates separately and has enough ash flow and financial clout to run its own CAPEX program.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 11, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    They have been shifting their fleet over to compressed natural gas. Target is 85% of trucks and they have been doing it for 6 or 7 years.

  • Reply to

    Stock for Kids

    by larrywac70 Jan 5, 2015 1:24 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 10, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    What is happening is the same as when the Japanese cars makers started selling cars to young Americans in the 1970's. Many of those folks like me have never bought another US Big Three made auto.

  • Reply to

    Stock for Kids

    by larrywac70 Jan 5, 2015 1:24 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 10, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    To me it seems that CNBC has turned him into a buffoon at times. Prior to the TV show he had a radio show out of NYC that was also carried on other stations. You could also listen to it on the internet . Cramer was more serene than he is on TV. The show was great. When he was on vacation he had stand ins from His company and they had great guests. His recent books have been very good and beleive it or not even though I have been investing in stocks since 1971 you still pick up new things.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 10, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    After its discovery in the 1980s, telomerase gained a reputation as a fountain of youth. Researchers are still working with it and this is around 30 years later and it is still not on the market. I would not hold my breath waiting for this new antibiotic discovery to get to market.

  • Reply to

    is this way over priced for a utility???

    by moolbs Jan 9, 2015 8:28 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 10, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Historically how far back. We just came off of the long term Government Bond coming down from its high of 15% back in the early 1980's. We are resuming to a more normal rate of 4% or less. So the 30 year earns 4%. On the other hand a utility selling at 20 times earnings earns 5% which compounds. As time goes on the payout gets bigger and bigger. This phenomena should last for quite awhile. The decline in all commodity prices and the stock market break out in the early spring of 2103 (The S$P broke out of a range it had been trading in since 2000) signals a new secular bull market. The last secular bull market ran from 1982 to 2000. This would only be the 4th since 1900. These bull markets have powerful moves. Furthermore, up until the great inflation from 1970 onward stocks always paid more in dividends than bonds did in interest.

  • Reply to

    CTIX update on Jan. 12 Bio conference

    by bgprofit Jan 9, 2015 3:18 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 9, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    San Francisco, CA– Monday, January 12, 2015 @ 2pm PT (5pm ET)

    Biotech Showcase – Cellceutix Corporate Webcast – 2015

    Should be able to get access through CTIX site. Should also be replayed on their website.

  • Reply to

    i have owned D for over 40 years

    by freedman846 Dec 23, 2014 9:48 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 9, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    Someone on another tread here calculated the % at around 70% based on Numbers from Dominion. Remember there are often 2 sets of numbers. One may have non-cash charges which have no effect on the real payout ratio. Before you do anything wait till the 4th quarter and year end earnings report. It should also be accompanied by an estimate of where they think 2015 should be .. I believe the 2014 projection was $3.35 - $3.60. Usually all the numbers are on Yahoo under the tab Analyst's estimates but in Dominion's case it is blank. There is also a conference call where the CEO and other executives give a one hour recap plus answer the analyst's questions. Since I am retired and really into owning individual stocks, I listen to these every quarter plus any conferenced that Dominion attends. The replays are on the Investor relations part of Dominions website. On Feb 9th they will also have their individual analyst's meeting starting at 9Am EST. It will probably also be available on their site.

  • Reply to

    OT OneOk

    by dkwilk Jan 8, 2015 8:41 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 9, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Don. I do not own that company but I am sure they have some insight on what is happening in that play.

  • Reply to

    MDU seems

    by migaloowhale Jan 9, 2015 10:46 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 9, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    It is getting the #$%$ beat out of it. This is what happens when management has visions of grandeur and gets involved in businesses that are not part of their core. All the successful utilities stopped doing this years ago after going through the same angst.

  • Reply to


    by gharriso613 Jan 5, 2015 9:35 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 9, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    There is almost no spare capacity as everyone is all out pumping. It takes massive CAPEX just to keep production at where it is today. Many countries do not have the capital and therefore production will rollover enough to cause the price to rise. The world needs to produce 5.5 million barrels of new oil per day to off set the drop in oil field production. In addition a lot of big projects for conventional oil will be shelved and that does not affect HIIT but will help get production and demand back into balance. In the early 1980's when we went through this there was the ability to quickly bring 20% more oil on line. Today the extra oil is on line now, so the safety margin is zero.

    We will see where our company comes out once earnings are released and updated guidance given. HIIT operates in areas where there is infrastructure to get oil and gas to market cheaply so I think we continue to grow. There will also be bolt on acquisitions.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Jan 6, 2015 2:55 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jan 8, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    The world is in all out production and their is no spare capacity. That being said excess supply is really not that high. In order to maintain existing production all oil producers need to make up 5.5 million barrels a day in 2015 to make up for reduction in those producing fields. These lower prices will also stimulate demand.

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