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Flowers Foods, Inc. Message Board

rgchjr1945 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 24 minutes ago Member since: Sep 27, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Value

    by kevinbarrylaw May 19, 2016 1:36 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 1 hour 24 minutes ago Flag

    I just created a 2 year chart of PSX vs. OXY and VLO. Over the last 2 years as oil dropped (as shown by OXY), PSX and VLO both rallied and did the best when oil was the lowest. I choose OXY because it is primarily a pure oil play and although they have cut CAPEX they have low debt, lots of cash flow and increasing volumes so it really defines what has happened to oil.
    VLO is primarily a refiner/marketing company so you would expect it to be most sensitive to oil prices. PSX on the other hand has less than half of their investment in refining and even with marketing and lubricants is only a little more than 1/2 the business. Almost all of their CAPEX is going to midstream operations and of coursw they have 1/2 of CPChem. They also have commodity risk from the DCP partnership.
    So for the most part as oil goes down refining margins go up plus the product is cheaper due to the commodity cost so consumers are willing to buy more.

  • 30 minute presentation by D. N. Bible (CFO) on the company's investor website.

  • Reply to

    utilities punished

    by stproz May 18, 2016 4:33 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    Earlier in the year MetLife predicted that due to the severity of the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis it would be 10 years or more for interest rates to get back to what one might consider normal. It is really the long rates that cause problems for utilities but those rates are not going to challenge utility returns, QE has never stopped because any bonds that were purchased by the FED that come due are rolled into more bonds plus all the interest. Besides the rest of the world has such low 10 year rates that foreigners will be also buying thus keeping rates low. There are too many alamists on Wall Street and most have no idea what they are doing.

  • Reply to

    Split

    by jtcraig May 18, 2016 1:33 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    Maybe if it was a utility but they are buying shares back to restrict the float. A split means you have 2 $40 dollar pieces of paper worth $80.

  • Reply to

    New Dividend ??

    by minustide May 18, 2016 11:57 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    I looked back at the last few increase and it appears that the declaration date is the last Friday in May or the last business day in May so look for either May 27 or 31 for the announcement. As far as the amount the last two increase were 5 cents per so i look at that as a minimum. It also looks like the current dividend is about 35% of the 2016 earnings. Earnings estimate per LOW is $4.13 up from the analyst's consensus of $4.00. 35% of the new estimate is around 7 - 8 cents. I know they still want to buy back a lot of shares so it depends on how management wants to split return money to us. So look at 5 cents/quarter as a base case with 8 cents as a reach. My prediction is 7 cents/quarter which is a 25% increase. With housing stable, LOW expanding # of stores and a new emphasis on the Pro, I'll take a years worth of capital gains plus a nice dividend increase all year long.

  • Reply to

    only 1.5% of shoppers signed up for boycott

    by crabseatfree May 14, 2016 10:05 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    You are right I also did not sign but will never go there again. There is usually a multiplier effect to these boycotts so it could be as high as 10 million and probably centered in particular conservative area which can put individual store locations out of business. Their entire HQ segment will be chasing their tails trying to respond to these pockets of total discontent.

  • One of the main reasons is paint sales. They carry PPG.

  • Reply to

    I will never ever step foot in a Target again!

    by crazy1090631 May 18, 2016 9:43 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    I am generally do interested in retail stocks but knowing about the boycott I thought i would see how TGT is doing. They are getting the you know what kicked out of them. The CEO is going to go down with the ship by not retracting the policy.

  • Reply to

    SE Two Years Ago Was Trading For $40.00

    by balooga2_2000 May 16, 2016 12:07 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 16, 2016 7:30 PM Flag

    SE has been hurt by a number of things. First being included in MLP's with a bunch of weak companies is a problem as is SEP which also trades with a bunch of losers and gets killed price wise due to association. Since a lot of the big capital budget is in the SEP ( MLP) it becomes difficult to raise capital especially SEP units. This puts the whole operation in a bind. Secondly there was a lot of problems with DCP midstream which has been now straightened out. As they complete projects we should see the price move back toward $40.

  • Reply to

    Upgrade to Buy

    by sugarfox98 May 16, 2016 10:12 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 16, 2016 7:15 PM Flag

    It was the second part of "The Trader" column". To summarize the stock was recommended in this column back in Sep 2015 and was a followup. Bank stocks generally down and BBT is boring but could still give a double digit return this year. BBT's business is doing well. Stock down on microeconomic concernes not the about BBT's business. $206M increase in energy related non performing loans however total energy loans are $1.6B out of $134B total loans. BBT just bought a bunch of banks while investors are disenchanted with M&A in banking. Management is committed to "peer leading" dividend so another increase in 3rd quarter is possible. The 2016 EPS estimate is $2.82 or a P/E of only 11.7 compared to historic 13 - 14. Conclusion: BB&T won't be a home run. But it's a Steady Eddie bank "that gives time to wory about your kids and lets you sleep at night" with an attractive income stream compared with alternative equities.

    BB&T was also in the Research Reports section. FIG Partners expects shares to trade $39 - $40 in next 9 months. They think the stock could exceed that and they recommend further accumulation of shares by new and existing investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VVC missed earnings

    by jacksinv May 9, 2016 7:09 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 10, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Agree. I am a customer of the gas distribution company. This is the perfect company in terms of growth because of the need to replace the pipes. The gas business is projected to be bigger than the electric (distribution + generation). They have also been building new houses again. Not at the pre-2008 rate but are filling in all the subdivisions that had lots left. Once that is done there is plenty of farmland close to the city. Indy is also a midwest hub for shipping (think distribution of on line purchases). New warehouses are being built all the time. Finally this is a takeover candidate. Duke has operations adjacent to VVC and might be interested into acquiring gas assets.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 8, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    The problem is not necessarily AMGN but the ETF's in which it resides and there are 21. Some are small however XLV (AMGN = 4.5%) trades over 12 million shares per day and IBB (AMGN = 8.3%) trades about 2.25 million per day. So when the market does not like biotechs or in some instances healthcare in general AMGN still gets the #$%$ kicked out of it by being in a bad neighborhood. In addition, this spooks others to dump the stock because they are unaware that the downturn does not necessarily reflect how investors think about AMGN as an individual stock. Only ETFs I have ever owned are commodities and currencies which allows you to trade them without having a commodities broker.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 28, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    Never trade on the headline news. It always come back to bite you in the #$%$. I see we were down about $3 out of the gate and are now up about $2.50. Someone threw away about $5.50. Wish i was that rich that I could throw away $5.50 per share.

  • Reply to

    Any idea

    by hiker200055 Apr 15, 2016 5:30 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 26, 2016 1:04 PM Flag

    We are back over $31 as WTI is pushing $44. SE, KMI & other pipelines and MLP midstream companies seem to trade with oil even though most of the assets are in natural gas and gas is increasing in usage.

  • Reply to

    2 for 1 stock split

    by cid1000 Apr 15, 2016 10:28 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 26, 2016 12:59 PM Flag

    MMM ran up in price during 2012 - 2014 and then hit the strong dollar. Since then we have basically back and filled going sideways. The PE fully reflects the stock price so splits will not entice people to buy more MMM. Volumes are higher because you have to buy 2X the number of shares to invest the same amount of money. Eventually the dollar will stabilize and growing sales will finally lift dollar denominated revenues and earnings. Reducing the share count also helps. They have great cash flow so unless there is a takeover of another company using cash it just piles up. They have been increasing the dividend at a good clip every year. If you are looking for big price action buy a Biotech or FB or TSLA.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 22, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    I originally bought TIS for the divy and some capital gains. But as I started to see that they were going to be more than just a small regional player I continued to buy on the dips. I do not think a lot of share owners really have any idea what is happening and their growth plans. Unfortunately they had to swap out paper machines in OK while still trying to run the company which effected earnings. I think once things settle down and they get Barnwell up and running they should have the cash flow to expand into the Northeast and open a plant some place like PA where they can cover all of New England and the Middle Atlantic states and also pick-up Ohio. They really do not have to pick up much market share to propel the stock price into the $50 - $100 range over 4 or 5 years.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop today?

    by ce.rjc Apr 20, 2016 5:36 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 21, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Actually there is a lot of growth due to CAPEX. Utilities profits are based on the rate base. All gas distribution companies are in the process of replacing their mains per the FERC and states must give them rates to match the investment. D also is placing aerial cable in the ground in out lying areas. Finally there is a lot of investment being dropped into the MLP and the purchase of STR. Lots going on.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 21, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    More like $30. Its a small company that is in the process of expanding and now has some decent leadership. Based on what I heard on the conference call they have had to make a number of changes in their team and in procedures. Lots of moving parts in both the pacific coast and the Barnwell start up. I would expect the stock to move higher as they expand the business with pretty good margins.

  • Orchids Paper Products beats by $0.26, beats on revs (TIS) :

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.26 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 27.5% year/year to $47.7 mln vs the $43.22 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
    "I am extremely pleased that, after achieving an approximate 20% improvement in sales and Adjusted EBITDA in 2015, we have continued to grow significantly in 2016, with a very strong performance in the first quarter... As we look forward into 2016, we will continue to make improvements in quality and cost although the normal headwinds associated with the start-up of our South Carolina facility could affect earnings for several quarters. Additionally, we exceeded our 20,000 ton annual limit under the Fabrica supply agreement in March. As a result, until the contract resets on June 1, we will share margins under the terms of the contract, which we expect will reduce our earnings in the second quarter by approximately $1.0 million compared to the first quarter."

  • Reply to

    Dividen

    by jrwill1931 Apr 14, 2016 11:11 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 15, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    The declaration date for the 2nd quarter dividend is the end of the 1st week of May (historically). The X-dividend date is about one week later and payout around the 1st of June. They have a very short time between declaration and payout.

    As far as increase the CEO has said as recently as thios past quarter that they expect a minimum of 10% increase which would be about the same as last year or 6 cents per quarter (24 cents for the next 4 quarters). Since they have pretty much figured out what their capital structure will look like and have a good feel for cash flow the increase is now one time per year as with most companies. Even at this years low earnings per share estimate of $6.09 the company is still paying out only 40%. They can only invest so much and $9 billion in debt is low for a $45 billion market cap company. At the lowest rates on debt since the 1930's it is crazy not to use some leverage.

FLO
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