Agree with all you said. We need to get to cash flow positive. This is when all the gas drillers took off 8 - 10 years ago. A company like SWN tripled in around 2 years. In 3 years it was up more than 4.5 times. but has since come down some do to price of natural gas.
There are two kinds of natural gas trucks. First is CNG used by vehicles that return home every night. These are the fleets like UPS delivery trucks and local garbage trucks. Trucks pull into a parking space in the yard each night and a filling hose is attached for a slow fill over night. The slow fill puts more gas in the tank. I own Waste management and they will have 85% of vehicles on CNG at the end of this buying cycle. As far as LNG big rigs you only need them on the interstate. They are penetrating initially in the western states. Right now most companies are only buying their first trucks to trial. Once they have evaluated then the mass buying will occur.
Problems in the Ukraine. The first thing that moment players do when they own high PE growth stocks is jump right through their a-holes and sell. No questions asked just sell, especially late on Friday afternoon.
Realizing that PSX had assets that were substantially worth more than the morons that were trading it at the time, I jumped in and scarfed up more shares when they traded was in the $30's. Actually the first day the stock was around $33 and during the month double bottomed around $30. Then in the Summer it worked it;'s way over $40 by early August and never looked back. I remember there was WI trading in April that may have gone as high as $37. It looks like we are at fair value and need to let investments pending in chemicals, midstream and pipeline start to drive revenues in those businesses high and become a larger piece of the pie. Those businesses have much higher rates of return than refining.
Whether you have 1 piece of paper worth $135 or 2 pieces worth $67.59 each, you still have $135. Splits were much more popular when a majority of stock was owned by individuals. When 75 - 80% of stock is owned by institutions there is little incentive for a split. CL split there stock because they want more individuals who will also buy their products. They even mentioned that because I own the stock. On the other hand MMM has very few consumer products as a percent of total Revenues.
The market is very rational and is looking at the future and what the company has been doing to lower costs. There is also a lot of new products coming in the engineered products group and prospects for the companies steel customers in NA and Europe are improving. In the case of this company past performance is almost meaningless.
1. Reducing costs for now and in the future by slimming down. 2. Graphite division becoming a bib=gger piece of the company by growing pretty rapidly. 3. Europe turn around which effects more than just Europe because their economy is so large and has had negative growth.
Stocks trade on future prospects not past performance. I need to listen to the conference call when it is replayed to see what they have to say.
HD beat the estimate by 2 cents and beat every quarter this year. There guidance is basically in line with the analyst's estimates and analyst's have increase 2015 estimates. They raised the dividend 21% and are buying back $5 billion in stock.
You may get greener. Both Libya and Venezuela are having internal political problems that will effect their ability to produce. 2014 non-OPEC incremental output estimate 1.7 million barrels per day. Est of increased usage 0.4 million barrels per day. Normally that would cause prices to fall. But the political unrest should make prices firm or increase. You know with these prices that the Russians or Arabs will not step in to make up the difference. There was an article in WSJ today regarding this situation.
Thanks for the info. A few points. A lot of the dry gas being produced is from wet gas areas and as a result of drilling for oil in tight rock. For example in the Bakken the out put is about 13% high BTU gas and a lot is currently flared waiting on the equipment to separate the NGL's out before release to pipeline. In the Utica they are also drilling for liquids rich gas. Lots of areas have been almost shut down. Then there is Canada. I would not worry about export.
I have. That is why they will not do it. This is not a company where people are going to use the product because they own the stock. There is no need for a broad base of shareholders and in fact more with fewer shares cost money and is a pain in the butt.
ISI Group Upgrades Cummins to “Buy” (CMI)
Posted by Stephan Byrd on Feb 24th, 2014 // No Comments
Cummins (NYSE:CMI) was upgraded by stock analysts at ISI Group to a “buy” rating in a report issued on Monday,
There were no details given, only what i show above. On CNBC they mentioned the ICI upgrade and I think they said a $170 price target. Remember though, the average 1st year target is around $150 and there have been other firms that have down graded recently to hold.
Also possible influence form G20 meeting where they were talking about concerted effort to move global GNP. The real key is Europe, which was talked about on many industrial company conference calls. I know that Emerson Electric is going to invest capital in some of their divisions for growth and were much more positive about Europe having positive growth albeit slow, nevertheless some growth.
If that pipeline starts coming to market it will be a lot sooner than that. Years ago i owned AMGN before their 1st drug hit the market. In a very short time they went form $0 in revenue to $2 billion and then $4 billion. At some point the % change slows, but Biotech is where it is at. I also own CELG.
The PE listed on the Yahoo page is incorrect. Based on the 2.01 in earnings it is more like 19.3X. Also the consensus analysts' estimate for 2014 is $2.20 or +9.4%. Abbot did beat on some of their quarters last year. A big hurdle has been the problem in China caused by a partner in infant formula. If they can get that straightened out earnings could be better. Your estimate of 43.75 looks good as long as they can beat the estimates by a small amount and get some help from the overall market.
As far as the dividend ABT just paid out the new rate of 22 cents/quarter on 2/15/14. That was a 57% increase over the previous 14 cents. I think they low balled the initial payout after the split with ABBV to be on the safe side. They just announced the second payout recently. Since most companies raise the dividend once per year, we will have to wait till the 4th quarter to find out. I think the rate of change will be a more modest amount of 2 or 3 cents per share. But again that is a long way off and lots can happen in between.
Most of the folks that go for this nonsense are social science people, not real scientists. They even rigged the numbers a few years ago and were caught at it. Actually the worlds temperature has been going down. As far as climate change, it is constantly changing due mostly to solar activity.
I think wall street is looking past the short term to 2015. 2015 net Income consensus estimate is up 38% over 2013. There is also a new truck cycle coming. In addition, no one is factoring in Europe. Europe has had negative growth but forecast of flat to 1.5% in 2014. The European economy is so big that it has repercussions all over the world including the emerging market companies. The government is also going to tighten truck admission standards and CMI has the best equipment. We will also see more CNG & LNG vehicles. One interesting tidbit is that almost every conference call I listened to talked about reduction in input costs caused by lower commodity prices. The great secular bull markets of 1952 - 68 and 1982 - 99 were stked by lower commodity prices.