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Phillips 66 Message Board

rgchjr1945 57 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2016 6:06 PM Member since: Sep 27, 2011
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  • Reply to

    utilities punished

    by stproz May 18, 2016 4:33 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    Earlier in the year MetLife predicted that due to the severity of the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis it would be 10 years or more for interest rates to get back to what one might consider normal. It is really the long rates that cause problems for utilities but those rates are not going to challenge utility returns, QE has never stopped because any bonds that were purchased by the FED that come due are rolled into more bonds plus all the interest. Besides the rest of the world has such low 10 year rates that foreigners will be also buying thus keeping rates low. There are too many alamists on Wall Street and most have no idea what they are doing.

  • Reply to

    Emr zooming today....3-17

    by west7575 Mar 17, 2016 12:19 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 17, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    Two reasons: The biggest is the dollar has weakened to $1.1326 to the Euro so when companies report earnings in dollars they are higher plus it helps sales since Emerson does not have to raise prices to get the same margin results. Emerson does a lot of business in the Euro zone. Secondly, oil has rallied to WTI = $40.04 and Brent = $41.55. It appears that investors think that oil may go higher. Recent events seem to have scared the short sellers in oil out of the market and perception in investments is very important. As a result, higher oil prices could mean more business for EMR. The process control business has been getting killed on the reduction in oil and gas companies' reductions in their CAPEX. This may not happen immediately but again markets trade on perception and future growth.

    Today the market is looking ahead and saying EMR earnings should do a lot better in the future due to the two things I high lighted above. The first reason however, is the biggest.

  • Reply to

    Buffet buying at wrong time.

    by mvp3243 Feb 8, 2016 11:51 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 16, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    It is not an oil company. Their only exposure to commodities is through a 50% interest in DCP midstream. It is primarily a refiner with interests in chemicals, midstream and fuel marketing. In order for Buffet to take a 25% position in this company is traders have to be in the market constantly or they would drive the price through the roof. They still need to buy another 10% of the company to reach their filed goal with the SEC.

  • Reply to

    what's wrong with AMGN?

    by j1c4b Feb 22, 2016 10:07 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Feb 24, 2016 4:42 PM Flag

    All the biotech and drug stocks are dead for awhile because of politicians shooting their mouths off about the cost to consumers. Hillary began the assault. If you are going to vote for Hillary raise your hand. Then slap yourself in the face your an idiot!!!!

  • Reply to

    Cove Point contracts

    by dlf412 Feb 3, 2016 9:27 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 6, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    Based on what you said above I found the following info:
    India's state-owned Gail and Japan trading firm Sumitomo have signed up to use Dominion's $3.5 billion LNG plant that will liquefy U.S. gas for shipment in tankers overseas by 2017.

    Under the agreements, Gail and Sumitomo will source the gas themselves and pay to use the plant, which will have the capacity to produce 5.25 million tonnes per year (mtpa) of LNG. Both companies will be able to export 2.3 million tonnes per year.

    Sumitomo will sell the LNG onto Japanese utilities Tokyo Gas and Kansai Electric Power.

    The company intends to finance construction using a combination of debt and equity. As part of
    the financing, Dominion Resources is issuing about $1 billion in a type of security that consists
    of a bond and a contract obligating the investor to buy the company’s common stock in 2016.

  • Reply to

    Any Chance KMI will Raise Div

    by foomooboo Feb 27, 2016 5:45 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Feb 28, 2016 8:00 PM Flag

    They will not raise it until they have determined that the stock price is high enough to warrant issuing new shares in along with new debt. The problem has never been about cash from operations but about using their stock to raise additional CAPEX money. In order to keep a decent credit rating you need to have balance in the debt and equity.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 4, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    Housing is starting to look solid. Saw video on CNBC World last night that flippers are back in the market fixing up houses to resell. Also looks like a lot of secondary cities are having house price gains. Younger people also first time owners on the rise.

  • Reply to

    Exxon Mobil still interested in ConocoPhillips?

    by a5starstock Feb 22, 2016 12:30 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 2, 2016 4:52 PM Flag

    Production is starting to roll over in a number of areas. China will lose as much as 400 - 500K barrels per day. India not a big producer losing production. Mexico and Venezuela have been going down for awhile. Russia has no currency to buy outside equipment. Their production appears to have topped. US is lowest level of production since late 2014. In general oil fields lose 3 - 5% of production each year without massive amounts of CAPEX. From what I have read recently is that there is only 1 million barrels per day of over production on a scale of 95 million barrels per day. World demand is also rising. Later this year demand will exceed production and the huge inventories will start to be worked down.

    I think Exxon is looking to buy properties that may adjoin their existing locations rather than whole companies. In US shale areas companies are always selling, buying and swapping to get larger blocks to work with. OXY sold their Bakken property and is buying in the Permian where they are King and have midstream assets and their own pipes to the Gulf Coast.

  • Reply to

    Dividen

    by jrwill1931 Apr 14, 2016 11:11 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 15, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    The declaration date for the 2nd quarter dividend is the end of the 1st week of May (historically). The X-dividend date is about one week later and payout around the 1st of June. They have a very short time between declaration and payout.

    As far as increase the CEO has said as recently as thios past quarter that they expect a minimum of 10% increase which would be about the same as last year or 6 cents per quarter (24 cents for the next 4 quarters). Since they have pretty much figured out what their capital structure will look like and have a good feel for cash flow the increase is now one time per year as with most companies. Even at this years low earnings per share estimate of $6.09 the company is still paying out only 40%. They can only invest so much and $9 billion in debt is low for a $45 billion market cap company. At the lowest rates on debt since the 1930's it is crazy not to use some leverage.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Feb 26, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    I would rather believe in reality. It has been possible to get rid of a lot of the coal because there were alternatives. There are no alternatives at this time for oil and gas that will have any meaningful impact. Demand for both oil and gas worldwide continue to rise. Ex. oil demand has been increasing about 1 million barrels a day. Last year was uo 1.5 million barrels. This year estimate is 1.25 million barrels.

  • Reply to

    Gorgon is working big-time

    by perho Mar 9, 2016 10:22 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 9, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    There should be good news on this project all year as it is being cut over in stages into 2017. In addition, as oil prices increase the price CVX gets for gas also goes up as the contracts are pegged to the price of Brent.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Feb 29, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    Interesting. So the fuel that everyone is turning to, NG, is not going to be carried on the pipes. First off the Marcellus/Utica makes money at lower prices than NG is at now. Most of gas comes from big producers who have deep pockets plus more and more gas is demand driven by utilities for electric generation. more gas will be processed rather than less. Oil pipes are a very small amount of KMI's portfolio.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Mar 11, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    Oil companies are interested in buying assets that make sense for them which usually properties that adjoin their existing oil fields. They want to develop economies of size. COP for example may actually buy or swap property that gives them economies and sell property where they do not have a big presence.

  • Reply to

    Why the big drop today?

    by ce.rjc Apr 20, 2016 5:36 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 21, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Actually there is a lot of growth due to CAPEX. Utilities profits are based on the rate base. All gas distribution companies are in the process of replacing their mains per the FERC and states must give them rates to match the investment. D also is placing aerial cable in the ground in out lying areas. Finally there is a lot of investment being dropped into the MLP and the purchase of STR. Lots going on.

  • Orchids Paper Products beats by $0.26, beats on revs (TIS) :

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.56 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.26 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 27.5% year/year to $47.7 mln vs the $43.22 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
    "I am extremely pleased that, after achieving an approximate 20% improvement in sales and Adjusted EBITDA in 2015, we have continued to grow significantly in 2016, with a very strong performance in the first quarter... As we look forward into 2016, we will continue to make improvements in quality and cost although the normal headwinds associated with the start-up of our South Carolina facility could affect earnings for several quarters. Additionally, we exceeded our 20,000 ton annual limit under the Fabrica supply agreement in March. As a result, until the contract resets on June 1, we will share margins under the terms of the contract, which we expect will reduce our earnings in the second quarter by approximately $1.0 million compared to the first quarter."

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 28, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    Never trade on the headline news. It always come back to bite you in the #$%$. I see we were down about $3 out of the gate and are now up about $2.50. Someone threw away about $5.50. Wish i was that rich that I could throw away $5.50 per share.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 22, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    I originally bought TIS for the divy and some capital gains. But as I started to see that they were going to be more than just a small regional player I continued to buy on the dips. I do not think a lot of share owners really have any idea what is happening and their growth plans. Unfortunately they had to swap out paper machines in OK while still trying to run the company which effected earnings. I think once things settle down and they get Barnwell up and running they should have the cash flow to expand into the Northeast and open a plant some place like PA where they can cover all of New England and the Middle Atlantic states and also pick-up Ohio. They really do not have to pick up much market share to propel the stock price into the $50 - $100 range over 4 or 5 years.

  • Reply to

    only 1.5% of shoppers signed up for boycott

    by crabseatfree May 14, 2016 10:05 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    You are right I also did not sign but will never go there again. There is usually a multiplier effect to these boycotts so it could be as high as 10 million and probably centered in particular conservative area which can put individual store locations out of business. Their entire HQ segment will be chasing their tails trying to respond to these pockets of total discontent.

  • Reply to

    Upgrade to Buy

    by sugarfox98 May 16, 2016 10:12 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 16, 2016 7:15 PM Flag

    It was the second part of "The Trader" column". To summarize the stock was recommended in this column back in Sep 2015 and was a followup. Bank stocks generally down and BBT is boring but could still give a double digit return this year. BBT's business is doing well. Stock down on microeconomic concernes not the about BBT's business. $206M increase in energy related non performing loans however total energy loans are $1.6B out of $134B total loans. BBT just bought a bunch of banks while investors are disenchanted with M&A in banking. Management is committed to "peer leading" dividend so another increase in 3rd quarter is possible. The 2016 EPS estimate is $2.82 or a P/E of only 11.7 compared to historic 13 - 14. Conclusion: BB&T won't be a home run. But it's a Steady Eddie bank "that gives time to wory about your kids and lets you sleep at night" with an attractive income stream compared with alternative equities.

    BB&T was also in the Research Reports section. FIG Partners expects shares to trade $39 - $40 in next 9 months. They think the stock could exceed that and they recommend further accumulation of shares by new and existing investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I will never ever step foot in a Target again!

    by crazy1090631 May 18, 2016 9:43 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 18, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    I am generally do interested in retail stocks but knowing about the boycott I thought i would see how TGT is doing. They are getting the you know what kicked out of them. The CEO is going to go down with the ship by not retracting the policy.

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