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Phillips 66 Message Board

rgchjr1945 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 17, 2015 3:30 PM Member since: Sep 27, 2011
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  • Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) is perhaps acting like the perfect company, in the perfect industry, at the perfect time. Everything seems to be going right for the company. If the younger generation is flocking to Under Armour over Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) as so much of the scuttle and reports would indicate, it seems fair to ask if Under Armour is in the same position that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was in a decade ago versus Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).
    Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) is perhaps acting like the perfect company, in the perfect industry, at the perfect time. Everything seems to be going right for the company. If the younger generation is flocking to Under Armour over Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) as so much of the scuttle and reports would indicate, it seems fair to ask if Under Armour is in the same position that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was in a decade ago versus Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).
    The fight between Apple and Microsoft, or Apple and the personal computer (PC), offers a great lesson here in a comparison between Nike and Under Armour. There also needs to be some temperance on just how extreme that comparison can be made. Despite the rise of the Mac generation and despite the rise of iTunes, the iPhone and the iPad, businesses and consumers still buy PCs in droves.
    A lesson here is simple: Under Armour may be growing and may continue to grow, but it may not be the death of Nike. In fact, there may be room for both Under Armour and Nike to keep growing.

  • Reply to

    Congrats to the Longs ...

    by joeschmo_4 Apr 16, 2015 10:04 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 16, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    They manage the company for growth and income. It is still being run as if it was an MLP. Most of the assets are fee based and since natural gas is cheap a lot of it is moving across their toll road. Do not forget about their storage and terminals businesses which are huge. When asked about the $2.00 dividend and then 10% per year thereafter, Kinder said that they were sticking by that and in 2020 the divy should be $3.22. He qualified that by saying that was the base case and it could be higher.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 30, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    Too many antitrust problems. Plus XOM needs oil and gas production and reserves.

  • Reply to

    NO DIVIDEND CUT!

    by igurumo Apr 9, 2015 3:04 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 9, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    Cushing is not about to overflow. In the last few years they have added significant capacity. Based on numbers I can find on line it is around 70% full and we are hitting the time of year where refinery capacity starts to ramp up after being down for maintenance and switch over to summer fuels.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jun 7, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    Couple of points. I am retired and wear UA shirts and other products in the regular course of things. Not a product just for athletes. Our daughter and family live in the Charleston area where it is hot and my wife buys them UA clothes which the boys love. Secondly, The digital health strategy is huge. It can be a money maker on its own due to advertising. Social media only exists because of advertising and UA now has a second business that ties in with the first. I generally do not like companies that are have many businesses rolled into one but this is different because they compliment each other.

  • NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Under Armour Inc. (UA - Get Report) are up by 0.83% to $83.41 at the start of trading on Thursday morning after analysts at Piper Jaffray raised their price target on the stock to $90 from $84 and increased their full year 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates.

    The firm now expects Under Armour's full year 2015 earnings to be $1.09 per share, up from $1.06 per share. For the full year 2016 Piper Jaffray believes Under Armour will post $1.50 per share, an increase from its previous $1.40 per share estimate.

    Piper Jaffray said it upped its numbers on the athletic apparel retailer as it believes the company has a robust footwear pipeline.

    "Following travels with Finish Line (FINL) management, we are highlighting UA as a positive derivative based on how this key partner views the brand's future product innovation," the firm said in an analyst note this morning.

    "Management was bullish on UA's current momentum in footwear--both in basketball and running. UA is roughly 5%-7% of Finish Line's sales but could be closer to 10% overtime should the momentum continue. Recall in the most recent 2 quarters, UA saw consolidated footwear growth in excess of 50%," Piper Jaffray continued.
    Continued --

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 20, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    So far I can only find 2 projects and that was from the recent article about Valero and those to adjunct will take Texas oil. In the Bakken the MDU/Calmut project is also a topping refinery to make diesel. The left overs are then railed to a Calmut refinery (I think in Minnesota) to crack the residual. I have also seen a second topping unit to be built in ND the Trenton Diesel refinery with the residual again railed out. I have also seen MDU looking at building a 2nd diesel topper. All this is just starting to really kick off, but definitely positive for oil production in tight rock.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 23, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    I think all the biotechs are a little tired. CELG is up 62% in the last 12 mos., second only to REGN, up 68%, among the big companies Out of the other three, AMGN, BIIB & GILD, none is up more than 50% or less than 40%. Earnings on the other hand are estimated to be up more than 30% per year for CELG in 2015 or 2016. This is not a small biotech that has been losing money for 5 years and then all of a sudden hits the mother lode and is approved for a $ billion drug. Investing in those stocks in my mind is a #$%$ shoot. This is not a get rich company but one that will deliver superior earnings over a long period of time.

  • Reply to

    Why is D selling off?

    by gimmepavv Jun 3, 2015 7:37 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Jun 4, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    It is all about interest rates. The 10-year went above 2% awhile back and is now up to 2.32%. Bonds are now considered to be more competition to stocks that pay higher dividends. The pros think that this is the beginning of a big rise in bond rates. It is going to take longer than they think for rates to go up. After the great depression it took 20 years for rates to really recover.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 7, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    Not happening. 1. Production has leveled off. 2. Cushing has much more capacity than it had 4 years ago and more is being built. 3. Refinery utilization is still under 90% and coming off the lowest quarter of the year. We are heading to 95% plus utilization over the next several months. 4. Gasoline stocks are being reduced and are less than 5 year average plus demand has picked up.

    As far as WLL they just rasied a ton of money plus they have hedges. Furthermore oil is over $53 today.

  • Jordan Spieth's incredible Masters victory on Sunday not only resoundingly announced the arrival of golf's newest young gun, it also highlighted the bitter rivalry of two of the world's biggest sports apparel makers, Under Armour and Nike.

    Throughout the four-day tournament at the storied Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia, the 21-year-old Spieth was clad head to toe in logos for Under Armour, which had originally signed him in 2013. In January, he agreed to a 10-year sponsorship contract extension.

    Spieth said on Tuesday he's very happy with Under Armour and his other sponsors. "This is what they expect of me. It's not like this [Masters win] should really change much. They took a chance. They've put their investment in to me to be wearing this jacket," referring to the iconic green jacket given to Masters champions in addition to the prize money, which was $1.8 million to the winner this year. (Tweet This)

    "It's not like this is a different level than they want to see," he told "Squawk Box" in an interview. "I feel like I'm doing what I'm supposed to do for them."
    cont -

  • Reply to

    If they didn't miss Revs by a billion $

    by doogoo1 Apr 15, 2015 7:15 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 16, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    If you had bothered to listen to the conference call instead of running your mouth you would know that the revenues have to do with timing issues. Listen to the conference calls!!!!!

  • Reply to

    Anyone who sold their UA today is STUPID.

    by shep21998 Apr 21, 2015 4:11 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 21, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Question is did they sell after listening to the conference call or just on the headlines release. You have to listen to the conference calls. This company is firing on all cylinders. My head is still spinning from all the info they gave in that one hour. I will probably listen again just to find out what I missed.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rgchjr1945 by rgchjr1945 Apr 22, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Since the PSX fell below $80 in early October 2014, along with most of the energy stocks, PSG has made 4 runs at $80 and not been able to break out. Looks like another attempt is underway. Up to $80.20 earlier today, but beaten back again. I think we also need the market to show some resilience here for us to make it through resistance.

  • Reply to

    ABT should take a look at EXAS

    by bioimmunomabman Apr 22, 2015 2:06 PM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 22, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    According to Miles they are in no rush to deploy the cash but are looking at making deals across all their businesses. The key factor is always price and does ABT believe they can generate superior returns. There is always stuff on the market but they will not over pay for it. They also have all the Mylan shares that they did not sell which will eventually be monetized.

  • Reply to

    Seems like they should be raising div

    by genem7169 Apr 28, 2015 11:39 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 30, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    Generally the dividend is announced during the 1st week of May. Two years of company history May 8 & May7 which were the Wednesday in the first full week of May.) X-dividend is a week later with payout 1st day of June that is not a Sunday. Should be June 1st this year.

  • rgchjr1945 by rgchjr1945 May 7, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    As bad as things look with brady, Harper hit 3 HR's last night to lead the Nats to a win. He signed with UA a few years ago when he looked like the NL version of Trout. Injuries have curtailed his games played the past two seasons. However this year he has 8 HR's and 20 RBI and looks like the guy that has stardom written all over him.

  • Reply to

    Seems like they should be raising div

    by genem7169 Apr 28, 2015 11:39 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 May 8, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    You did not read my note below. There is a site Dividendinvestor that gives all the dividend dates each quarter from declaration to pay date and the histories. Most companies follow the same pattern every year. In the Fall PSX also said at least a double digit % increase each year out for the foreseeable future and reiterated that on the last conference call. The CEO would not say double digit % increases unless the board agreed with the strategy. He is not only the leader of the company but the spokesperson.

    This company is doing all the right things. They are using their huge cash flow to reinvest (primarily in the non refining businesses), increasing the dividend by a decent amount every year and with excess cash buying back stock as long as the management things the company is undervalued. Plus the two big JV's, Chevron Phillips Chemical and DCP midstream are self funding with money going one way, back to the parents.

    Yes refining can be flaky, but over the long pull it evens out and throws off huge cash flow. It also supports the Marketing and Specialty segment.

  • rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 8, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    The economy has been moving steadily higher over the years since the bottom in 2009. Also focus on international where they are only beginning to get a foothold. Finally you are only looking at sales of clothes and shoes. Think healthy and mobile which will ramp up additional revenues very quickly. This is why UA is moving higher. This is not a 2000 internet company like CSCO that bought up a lot of companies and rolled out a lot of product in 1998 - 2000 when companies were gearing up for Y2K thereby stealing a lot of forward revenue.

  • Reply to

    Dow next?? 15,855.10 or 18,288.60 ???

    by shortsp500 Apr 8, 2015 5:55 AM
    rgchjr1945 rgchjr1945 Apr 12, 2015 10:24 PM Flag

    Not happening. In the last great secular bull market their were two major downturns. The 1987 crash, which had a quick bounce back and the period when Clinton took office resulting form a recession. To go back to 15000 in a secular bull market you need a recession and with easy money and corporations flush with cash that is not going to happen. Plus we broke the back of the commodities supercycle. The other 3 such events since 1900 led to long term secular bull markets. The break out of the S&P past the old 2000 & 2007 tops signaled a break out form a 15 year bear market. This was similar to the 1966 - 1982 trading range bear market and the 1982 breakout that lasted till 2000.

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