Thanks. I listened to the NXPI/FSL merger webcast and came to the same conclusion about how FSL is a good fit. I did not project out a price. I just thought that the PE and PEG seemed right.
I only own NXPI in the tech space as I am retired and own a lot of dividend payers in both IRA's (tradition and Roth) and in a regular account. They generate a lot of cash and I bought many over the last 5 years. In 2008 I raised a lot of cash and sold the non-dividend payers because things were looking dicey.
But I do have a growth portfolio in my IRA's so that I can trade them w/o tax implications. I have seen you post on the biotechs and own CELG & REGN. Also have UA, MA, FB, TWTR.
The dividend payers give me a lot of diversification.
Over the past few years, the differential between the price of West Texas International (WTI) and Brent crude has become a proxy of sorts for the profitability of many refiners. That’s because the prices of the fuels they produce are more influenced by the higher international Brent price.
Meanwhile, because the US bans crude exports, surging shale production at home has put downward pressure on WTI, as US producers can only sell their oil to American refiners.
With the export ban in place the way it is … the US refiners have a crude cost advantage.
The Brent-WTI spread has fluctuated widely so far in 2015; right now, it stands at around $8.00, compared to around $2.66 at the start of the year. In late February, it ranged as high as $13.74.
“When your suppliers are desperate and your customers are flush, that’s when you can really make some money,. “Which certainly describes the happy place US refiners currently occupy, between a glut of domestic crude and customers using more fuel in response to lower prices.”
That latter point was borne out by figures released by the Federal Highway Administration earlier this month. According to the agency, US motorists logged a total of 251.4 billion miles in December, up 5% from last year. That capped off 10 straight months of year-over-year growth and was the fastest increase the FHWA has seen since 2001.
Newer figures from Texas suggest motorists have kept their hands on the wheel into the new year: last week, the state, which accounts for 10% of US gasoline sales and 13% of diesel sales, reported that it had collected $284 million in fuel taxes in February, compared to $269 million in the same month last year.
Refiners make money on what’s known as the “crack spread,” which refers to the difference between what they pay for the crude they process and the selling prices for finished products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
I have two questions for you:
1. What do you think of the up coming acquisition?
2. If you already owned NXPI (Which I due) would you own another semi? (I was thinking about purchasing SWKs for the long pull to compliment the NXPI.
Today is the first time it has traded over $80 since the end of last September. I think there are expectations of good refining earnings which for the time being could push the issues at DCP to the back burner. More importantly the price of oil has risen in the last few days and all those ETF's that contain PSX plus a ton of oil and gas producers are up. The fact thast PSX is in those ETF's is a real killer. But in the end we need good refining earnings to sustain the recovery of PSX's stock price.
A big part of the SU hit was due to currency because of their big ownership of Mexican rails. UNP does own part of one rail in Mexico but it is not really a significant problem for them as it is for KSU. Momentum traders just jumped on this as usual selling without even understanding what happened.
At one time this was a pretty good company until the bozos that run it were not satisfied to run a utility and went big time into the oil and gas business. Also the second time in 10 years that the stock crashed. The first time was over natural gas and this time oil. Dominion was smart and got out of all their oil and gas operations a number of years ago when they realized that the earnings from oil and gas was not predictable and whip sawed earnings and with it the stock price so the utility investors left with everyone else.
Thankfully I got tired of their poor performance due to having sub par property and sold out when the stock was in the mid $30's.
By Zacks Equity Research - 3 hours ago
One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Phillips 66 (PSX). This is because this security in the Oil Refining & Marketing space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity, and is a great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective.
This is important because, oftentimes, a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry, as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board. This is arguably taking place in the Oil Refining & Marketing space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 27 out of more than 250 industries, suggesting it is well-positioned from this perspective, especially when compared to other segments out there.
Meanwhile, Phillips 66 is actually looking pretty good on its own too. The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month, suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm’s prospects in both the short and long term.
In fact, over the past month, current quarter estimates have risen from $1.34 per share to $1.58, while current year estimates have risen from $6.40 per share to $6.73 per share. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is also a favorable signal.
This is a long article under PSX news on Yahoo Finance. The gist is that gulf coast refineries are getting mixed blends from pipelines out of Cushing which causes less high value products coming out of the refinery. As a result they are trucking high grade oil and by passing the pipes. It is a long article, below is a highlight:
Phillips 66, the nation's fourth-largest refiner, has added trucks and offloading equipment at several of its refineries to help reduce its reliance on oil coming from Cushing, Oklahoma, the nation's biggest crude oil crossroads and storage hub. Here, a growing volume of Canadian oil sands is often mixed with lighter domestic shale crude, resulting in blends that can be less profitable than similar oil fresh from the field.
Phillips 66 executives say operations at its 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Ponca City, Oklahoma, only 62 miles (100 km) from Cushing, have improved since it began getting more of its crude directly from wells in the Mississippian Lime shale patch nearby.
"That's really the key," Phillips 66 President Tim Taylor told Reuters. "With Cushing, you can get a blended barrel that hits the spec, but it's not as consistent as you'd like."
Since AAPL joined the Dow on 3/18/15 there may be some selling due to all the buying by Dow index funds and after the close on 3/20/15 CELG joined the S&P500 and joined at one of the top 30 stocks or so. There are a lot of S&P index funds plus the SPY. These changes, especially CELG, require days of trading by the fund managers.
There was a pretty good correction last year which allowed be to pick up a few hundred shares. Since this is a non dividend paying growth stock any hiccup in the general market will be felt here because the profession momentum investors that own lots of these shares will sell.
The investment in mobile and social will drive the earnings and then the stock price much higher and faster than we ever dreamed. Shorting this stock will lead to great pain for those that do.
The double bottom is nonsense. I am leary of technical analysis because it is back ward looking plus it does not cover all cases. We have no idea why other stocks developed such patterns. In this case the slow down in Europe is a huge reason plus currency issues. Also a bear market is not a double bottom but when an index in the market or a sector is down 20 or 25 %, Some market watchers have different thresholds. In EMR's case it has gone down around 21% to it's recent low of around $55.
One thing we do know is that any uptick in orders will drive the stock significantly higher because they have continued to invest in those parts of the business that show promise and have cut expenses to the bone. They also have commodity prices in their favor which will probably last for a long time thanks to over investment in both oil & gas and most metals. Will be interesting to hear what they have to say in the next quarterly webcast on earnings.
Oil rig counts at lowest level since March 2011
Oilfield service company Baker Hughes’s (BHI) US crude oil rig count decreased by 56 last week, down from 922 to 866. The number of oil rigs is now at its lowest level since March 2011.
The steepest decline in oil rigs since 1990 occurred on January 30, 2015, when the oil rig count decreased by 94. The latest figures mark the 14th consecutive weekly fall in crude oil rig counts. In those 14 weeks, the crude oil rig count has crashed by 680.
The Permian Basin was most affected, with a crude oil rig count that decreased by 23 in the past week. In the “other basins” category, there were 19 fewer active oil rigs. Other rigs are those in smaller basins or those that don’t fall within a specific geographic basin.
The oil rig count has fallen by 743, or 46%, since hitting a high not that long ago. The rig count was 1,609 on October 10, 2014, the highest since January 2005.
That and the fact that it is exposed to foreign currencies which are getting killed against the US dollar. I am hoping we get a nice pop when utilities need to purchase CBT compound used to take mercury out of the coal plant discharges.
It is because competing bond rates were rising. The 10 year treasury got up to 2.25%. All other types of US bonds are pegged against it. So for example single A, 20 year corporates were around 4% and you can get even more yield in the B rated bonds. When utilities hit their peak the 10 year was 1.6%. It is all related to what the Fed does with interest rates and very little to earnings. REITs and MLPs are under the same pressures.
Chardan Capital Markets Starts Regeneron Pharma (REGN) at Buy
Chardan Capital Markets initiates coverage on Regeneron Pharma (NASDAQ: REGN) with a Buy rating and a price target of $560.00.
Analyst Gbola Amusa commented, "We continue our roll out of coverage of companies exposed to sub-sectors of biotech that are likely to generate excess returns for investors in the coming 5 to 10 years. Having already appreciated Regeneron in our recent research as a central player in the high-growth (13% CAGR to 2020) anti-VEGF and anti-VEGF combo ophthalmology market, we now additionally turn our attention to REGN's soon-to-launch anti-PCSK9 antibody Praluent, which our lead analyst, per company feedback years ago, was perhaps the first to recognize and model as a blockbuster asset in the cardiovascular market. With the recent ODYSSEY data release, we continue to see the anti-PCSK9 class as paradigm-shifting and now publish our anti-PCSK9 market model which shows the market growing to $14.9bn in 2020 sales, of which Praluent is $6.8bn. We anticipate REGN will share further in the economics from $7.0bn of sales in 2020 from its partnered ophthalmology franchise. These dynamics drive our forecast of 25% 2014 to 2020 non-GAAP EPS CAGR (44% GAAP EPS CAGR). With a 2016 3-year PEG of 1.1, REGN has upside potential, as supported by our DCF-derived PT of $560."
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Regeneron Pharma click here. For more ratings news on Regeneron Pharma click here.
Shares of Regeneron Pharma closed at $486.02 yesterday.