Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) has gained 1.2% to 354.81 after its target price was raised to $400 from $340 at Credit Suisse.- per Barons market Movers. Just saw it on NSADAQ Pre-market at $362.02. Earlier high was $375.
There is still one more $0.375% dividend after this one. The analyst's average earnings estimates shows growth of around 10% two years in a row. Would be nice to get those quarterly increases in the 2 to 3 cent range again.
It was undervalued coming out of the spin off. Many thought that the E&P company would be where all the action was and that PSX was just another up and down refiner. They did not look at the Chemical and midstream JV's or the other assets that PSX received. No one thought that there would be an MLP, even though it had been brought up by analysts and the current management did not rule it out. Finally, the advent of using advantaged crude in coastal refineries was something that no one could have foreseen. When you put it all together you have a company that can do the 4 most important things. 1. Invest in growth capital projects 2. Retire debt. 3. Pay a dividend and increase it at least once a year. 4. Buy back stock - at least enough to make up for options awards and more if possible. If a company can consistently do all four then it is printing cash.
When COP split into COP and PSX we got 1 share of PSX for every 2 shares of COP. The price for PSX was established during the approximate 2 weeks where PSX traded on a when issued basis, so the market determines the price. For establishing cost basis for selling shares in taxable accounts COP described how it was done. They used the average share prices of the first official day of trading and then came up with a ratio. That is then applied to your original purchase price. You can look it up on the COP site. I have been involved in a couple of these and they were all done the same way. My situation is made simpler because I owned COP in a tax deferred account I also own OXY in an IRA so it makes no difference to me. Since May 1, 2012 COP/PSX is up 60% from the last day COP traded as one company. Plus they have each bought back stock and increased dividends.
If it should be $100 it would be. 2014 consensus is $6.55 and 2015 is $6.62. One percent growth. It will be quite awhile before you see $100. This also includes analyst's earnings upgrades in the past 90 days.
July 31 conference call slides #18 & # 21. Actually the earnings are $6.95 (my typo). Look at the slides and it will give you a good idea of what is happening. When COP split into COP & PSX not much happened until just before the split. Even when the stocks trades for about 2 weeks as WI and WO there was not much movement. It will take some operating results as separate companies before you see any significant movement.
The June 24th GHS energy conference webcast and accompanying slides are on their investor relations section of the web site under News/Events IR calendar. It is worth listening to - very informative. Both Fleming and Mulliniks gave presentations. This is a real company that has a good chance of getting very big. They have a lot of contacts in Texas and support from some of the folks involved in the valve venture and the original machine shop that started the whole thing. I bought quite a few shares under 15 cents but I also picked up some more just before the recent run up. Sometimes luck also plays a big part in making money.
There is more to this restructuring than just the spin off. If you look at the slides on the 2nd quarter conference call, you will see that OXY will go from 805 million shares outstanding to 675 million shares. Yet even after $1.2 billion in revenue is lost due to the California spin, Oxy revenue will be about the same as a result of recent capital expenditures. The companies estimate of $6.75 per share will go to just over $8.00. This does not include possible sales in the Mideast or the possibility of dropping down pipe and midstream to an MLP. Just before the spin CRC will trade WI and OXY WO so we will start to see values develop.
Here are the numbers based upon Yahoo estimated 2014 & 2015 estimated consensus earnings and current market price for each stock.
GILD: 2014 E = $8.00 2015 E = $9.35 growth = 16.8% PE for 2014 = 13.58 PE for 2015 = 11.62
CELG: 2014 E = $3.67 2015 E = $4.89 growth = 33.2% PE for 2014 = 25.95 PE for 2015 = 19.47
In addition, CELG has outlined the earnings out to 2017. You pay up for growth. CELG is growing 2 times as fast. CELG is cheap and should be held if you own it. I bought in about 18 months ago and added 40% more on dips. My original investment has almost doubled. I remember many years ago owning AMGN and heard the same thing. The last shares I sold around 2000 were up 12 times what I paid for them. This is my current pharma stock along with REGN, rather than owning traditional pharma like Merck or Pfiser.
Company is still ramping up. Maybe someday way off in the future. Right now they need the money to develop their Colorado property which can be another big winner. They do not talk about it much but they also have property in West Texas which is the latest hot play. If you want dividends buy COP, MRO or OXY. The personality of WLL is growth through the drill bit. The KOG deal was too good to be true and has synergies.
Over $80 is a long way off. SE rallied form the teens to where it is now as a snap back ffrom the worst financial disaster since the 1930's. Don't look at the most recent past to project the future. It is also a growth and income story. A lot of cash gets paid out every year in the dividend. Finally SE is very highly valued with an astronomical PE for a utility/pipeline. When the 10 year starts to head north of 4% (and it will) this company gets reevaluated.
The day of the split you will see the number of shares of CRC tin your account that you are entitled to based on the number of OXY shares you own. A few weeks prior to the split the new stock will trade WI and OXY will trade WO CRC. OXY will also trade as before. This will give you an idea of the valuations once the split occurs. CRC will operate like other shale oil drillers, putting all cash flow back into the business and paying no dividend. The new OXY will continue to do what it has been doing, divest non core property, increase the dividend every year and buy back stock after investing in the business. You need to look at some of the recent presentations on the investors portion of OXY web site.
Personally I plan on dumping the CRC and reinvesting the proceeds in OXY. I already own a number of E&P companies that are involved in unconventional production and I do not want anything to do with California. The restructuring on the OXY side will continue as they sell the non-core assets. Possible that they may drop the midstream and pipeline assets into an MLP.
The Brent / WTI spread is back to $9, plus PSX does not have to front as much for the raw commodity due to stronger dollar. Natural gas used to power the refineries and CPChem crackers is reasonably priced. Midstream build out continues as oil found in tight rock continues to expand. Cash flow should be unbelievable.
Pipeline companies and utilities that own pipelines are great sources of income an future growers. D owns a pipeline and very involved in the natural gas business. Look at SE and KMI pipelines and NI as a utility that only has electric in Indiana, but has local gas utilities and an interstate pipeline network. For a solid gas and electric utility look at WEC. I own all the companies I listed.
I listened to today's webcast and operations seem to be going well all over. I have invested in other Bakken companies and HK is knocking the ball out of the park up there. The ip rates are monsters. Since the rocks in El Halcon and TMS are similar, I would expect both of these areas to really start contributing. Been buying during this last down turn.
You do not make money in these kinds of stocks by trading them. If you have done the research and believe in the pharma products under development, the price was low enough to have bought a decent number of shares. Then monitor results and hold for the long pull. For me this is part of a Biotech portfolio. I also own CELG & REGN which are more mature. CTIX puts a little zip in my holdins.
It is valued for high growth. As the company's income grows the growth rate will slow o to the law of large numbers. However, the price of stock will continue to go up, only at a slower rate. Think about this, NKE is about 4.5X larger but still has a PE north of 26 X earnings. This company has a long way to go.