You would think. However, analysts' estimates have been going down even in the last 7 days. Last year was also cold early and the company beat a 38 cent estimate by 3 cents. Maybe they kept on raising the estimate as cold air was severe as early as December. This year the estimate is down to 36 cents down from 40 cents just one month ago. Has the last month been that warm to warrant that. Problem is they mess with these estimates so much you really cannot tell what they were really looking for in the 2013 4th quarter.
Besides the cold weather SE has cut over a number of large projects in the last 12 months plus DCP should be smoking as natural gas production needs to keep pace with earlier than usual draw down of storage. Henry Hub Dec futures are already up to $4.27 and both Jan & Feb futures are over $4.35. The analysts ask enough questions on the calls you would think they would get it right. I think the problem is there are a lot of moving parts with the MLP, DCP, Union gas and the canadian assets in the "C" corp that it might be just too complex.
Not a lot of volume compared to OXY and OXY-WI has no volume. But still 2 million shares plus not bad. When PSX was spun from COP it traded down after the spin. I think most people are adverse to trading here.
Based on the way dividendseeker came up with these numbers 187 is a good number. I used the numbers from slide 12 used at the 2014 annual meeting as a guide and came up with an average growth rate of 25%. So CELG could trade at close to $140 close in and low $180's late next year. But that is based on a PE of 1.5 times 25%. Is that right?? Too many unknown factors like overall Stock market growth, can CELG make their numbers and how do investors in general feel about CELG with a much higher market cap. At a PE 1.2 times growth 146 late next year would be more rational. But you never know that is why when I find a good company I hold for the long pull.
I am long this stock and holding for the long pull. I like their old guidance of $7.50 earnings in 2017 which will probably be guided higher with the next update. I also like and hold REGN as a companion in this space.
3:15 am Regeneron Pharms announces EYLEA injection approved for the treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema in Japan (REGN) : Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) announced that Bayer (BAYRY) HealthCare's Japanese subsidiary, Bayer Yakuhin, Ltd. has received approval from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for EYLEA Injection for diabetic macular edema.
EYLEA has already been approved in Japan for the treatment of patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration, macular edema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion, and myopic choroidal neovascularization. A marketing authorization application has been submitted in Japan for the treatment of macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion.
Back in the 90's I made a lot of money in Amgen, hitting it at just the right time. In the Spring of 2013 I decided to get back into biotechs so I bought REGN & CELG. Both have done really well, about double. REGN has a smaller market cap while CELG was a little more mature. I think both have a long way to run. REGN has a market cap of about $41 billion. I think that this company could rapidly get to $200 billion as long as they continue to innovate. My concern over the long pull for any successful stock is the law of large numbers where it becomes difficult to have superior growth due to the huge base a company is coming from. AAPL and GOOG seem to be pushing that number higher. As long as these biotechs continue to perform well I am holding. I find that trading stock is just another way of faking yourself out.
I could say good luck to the longs but I think performance has much more to do with the management and science behind the products rather than luck. Luck was when I started to look at these companies again and decided to buy.
Most of the break ups in this space have led to substantial loner term gains for the shareholders. The problem with a lot of theses companies is that they were assets collectors who for some reason bought a lot of property which they would not be able to develop in 50 years. It is more than just a spin but a total restructure. One the dust settles the OXY that remains will have great assets fewer shares outstanding and ready to have serious growth. Personally I have other shale oil investments so I will eventually sell CRC and put the proceeds in OXY.
An Analyst at today's earnings conference call asked about the lack of liquidity. HIIT is investigating the possibility of listing o NASDAQ, but there are requirements which need to me met. They have hired someone to start telling the companies story, I remember the announcement earlier this year. AS part of that effort they have taken the HIIT story on the road and attended numerous analyst days events. They plan on going to even more in 2015. So the Company does know the problem but not something you can turn around on a dime. Unless you specialize in these little companies, how many under $1 dollar stocks can you name. A few of the companies I hold are over $100 and in business before 1900. Hopefully 2015 will be a turning point for HIIT as the word starts to get out.
Conference call just finished. Lots of good news. They signed up new customers and will be more than doubling the number of evaporation rigs in the next year. I think he said they have 7 now, 5 on order and then double that next Summer. Apparently there is some seasonality with more activity in the Summer and less in Winter: however in South Texas all year round. All businesses are expanding so the new debt is not for operations but to buy capital equipment & the cash portion of acquisitions. They seem to like acquisitions where the private owner wants some stock and stay on with the firm.
They are looking into NASDAQ listing. One of the analysts asked about liquidity problems. They have also hired a public relations group, which was announced previously: however, they will be going to a lot of oil and gas symposiums to push the company.
You can always nit pick and find something wrong but to me things seem to be moving along. Also, customers are not backing off on drilling. A lot of their customers can make money at $55 oil because of pad drilling and close proximity to refineries.
Sometimes when dividends are paid out on a Monday they appear on Sunday. I have no idea why; however, I also see the dividend in my IRA account and have had this happen with dividends in other company's before.
Besides moving to natural gas vehicles the real energy play is cleaning up in shale plays. They have been moving aggressively into this area.
The large freight railroads spent 30 years getting rid of all those branch lines that they did not want because when run by railroads with unions they are unprofitable. They also did a poor job of marketing to those small businesses and provided lousy service.
Even the PWX is just a group of branch lines. In New England the main corridor from NY toward Boston was owned by Pan Am Systems a private company. Through a 50/50 partnership with NSC they transferred this track to Pan Am Southern. NSC paid Pan Am $140 million for the 50% interest.
Very few companies give special dividends. Anyway Chazen was at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Global Energy Conference this week. The slides are on the OXY website and lay out exactly what they plan on doing. If your view of running the company is different then sell. Over time I will do well just as I have for over 40 years.
If you listened to the conference calls you would know that they are going to buy back stock and shrink the shares outstanding. No one uses proceeds from sales to increase dividends. Dividends are paid from cash flow associated with continuing operations. They will probably raise the dividend 8 - 10 cents per quarter as they have the last 3 times.
At around 3:30 CRC-WI traded about 8.6 million shares with current price $7.90.
seems to be some interest in unloading CRC, but numbers small compared to total new shares.
At around 3:30 OXY-WI traded about 0.2 million shares with current price $82.40.
Not much interest in selling the new OXY.
I think it will take the full week with a lot more shares than this changing hands .to determine a real price for each.
I just finished listening to the presentation archived on REGN web site. It is well worth 30 or so minutes to listen. CEO is one smart dude and has great delivery and command of what they are doing and no BS. If there is one takeaway it's that this company is a medical technology machine and has a real plan.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation ("OXY") has announced a distribution of shares of California
Resources Corporation Common Stock. The distribution ratio will be 0.4 of a share of California
Resources Corporation ("CRC") Common Stock for every one (1) share of Occidental Petroleum
Corporation ("OXY") Common Stock held of record November 17, 2014. The mail date for the distribution
will be November 30, 2014. California Resources Corporation is anticipated to be admitted to "when
issued" trading under the symbol CRC WI on the NYSE on November 13, 2014. Beginning on November
13, 2014 through November 28, 2014, Occidental Petroleum Corporation will be trading on the NYSE on
a "regular way" basis under the symbol OXY, and on an "ex-distribution"-"when issued" basis under the
symbol OXY WI. California Resources Corporation "when issued" trading and Occidental Petroleum
Corporation "ex-distribution"-"when issued" trading will be suspended as of the opening on December 1,
2014. The ex-date for the distribution will be Monday, December 1, 2014.
He did recommend it awhile back but I think he really does not want people in oil stocks until the commodity price stabilizes. Unless you really follow this company closely I do not think you really know what the whole (an I emphasize whole) restructuring is all about. It is not just the spin and other sales will be going on for awhile. For example, they invested in the recent Texas pipeline to get it off the ground and are now selling because that is not their primary business. It was needed to get West Texas crude to the Gulf.
It has taken WM a while longer than many companies to recover from 2008 and start growing again. Part of the problem was the slump in commodity prices and thus losses in their recycling business. New contracts with customers are changing the cost structure. I also think that moving into the oil and gas fields will help.
So one there are firms in every state that cannot make it and go under. However, Wisconsin in general seems to be doing quite fine. In many states the participation rate has been going down thanks to the idiotic polices of the Obama Administration, yet in Wisconsin the participation rate is rising, total employment is rising and unemployed is going down. In Wisconsin's case even though the labor force is expanding unemployment rate going down. I guess the current state administration is doing something right.
In neighboring Illinois run by a bunch of libs, 3/4 of the drop in unemployment since April was caused by people leaving the work force because they cannot find jobs over a long period of time. Maybe that is why they wised up and elected a Republican Governor.
Interesting. Thanks for the post. I guess the biggest question is cost. How will it stack up against the current method. The gas production companies will make out well. Actually there is a whole host of industries that provide equipment, resources, transportation and clean-up to the extraction of both oil and gas from tight rock formations. I am retired and have the time to listen to all the conference calls of the companies that I own and it is amazing how many industries are effected by this energy revolution.