I also believe that we are about to enter a new secular bull market due to the fact that commodities have started to abate, especially oil and in particular natural gas. We have been in a secular stock bear market since 2000, which was triggered by the rise in commodities in the late 1990's. In the last secular bull market 1982 - 2000, I bought Amgen (after the 1987 crash) and hit a ten bagger. I sold due to need to fund some college costs for sons and a daughter. The profit was the equivalent of sending someone to Harvard in the mid 1990's for 4 years. I believe that we are about read to break out and that the current run up is not just the cyclical run up from the March, 2009 bottom but the beginning of a new secular bull. The last 10 - 15 years have seen huge amounts of money into commodity production. From the start in 1982 to 2000, the last bull market went up over 16 times. The other 2 secular bull markets in the 20th century all went up at least 8 times.
As far as SNTS, these are the companies that go through the roof in secular bull markets. I have recently started to accumulate biotech stocks in anticipation of big gains.
Thanks for the update. I missed this. The news on Yahoo did not have the split in the title.
Genentech was a good stock; however I choose Amgen and got in after the 87 market crash. In the 90's it went up to the point that it paid for 4 years at an Ivy league school. That was my sell discipline. I have again become interested in Biotechs and own some REGN, CELG and a little company SNTS.
I went to Cosco with my wife this week (retired and have the time) and in the pharmacy area I saw almost an entire row of nutrition products starting with baby formula all the way up to older folks and stacked high. All made by ABT. For pharma stocks I prefer the Biotects and own CELG, REGN & SNTS. I sold the ABBV.
How can the market be out of control. Earnings, dividends, cash flow, balance sheets are in much better shape than they were in 2008 when the market had risen to about 1525. In 2000 the S&P was 1498 and is now only 1667. So in 13 years we are up about 11%. Inflation is way more than that. All the things that make markets go up are doing well, so the market should be up. Most importantly, commodity prices in general have been coming down. This is a real key. The great commodity bull market started in the late 1990's. Going back to 1899 there has never been a secular stock bull market when commodity prices are high. All the things you here about politics, banks, interest rates etc. are all symptoms of where commodity prices are. From 1982 to 2000 the markets shrugged off all bad news because commodity prices were low.
Since the last 10 years have seen massive amounts of capital pouring into all types of commodities we should start to see the stock market take off. In the 3 secular bull markets of the 20th century stocks went up a minimum of 10 times and in 1982 - 2000 it went up 16 times. The stock market could run up to 140000 in the next 15 years as long as commodities cooperate.
Colgate adjusted for splits sold for less than $1 in 1982. Up 124X. Never trash this stock, it will burn you.
Largest dividend stock holdings: WM, SE, VVC, CL, PSX, ARG, OXY (VVC is my local natural gas utility)
Largest non-dividend stock holdings: KOG, HK, DDD, REGN, CELG
Speculation stocks: HIIT, SNTS, CTIX
Cramer's cable audience is really not that big and the Motley Fool are a bunch of idiots. The reason to own SE is because of all the investment they are putting in to pipe and midstream between now and 2020 and the MLP's that they can use to raise money and share in their investments.
I worked for a utility for many years and I know a lot more about these investments and the financials than these idiots ever will. Plus I have a friend who is a retired banker who invests in the same securities. You have to have faith in your own ability.
It is a very volatile stock and has been up and down. Not a trader and am in for the long term. Eventually, a big industrial may take them out.
Based on the Yahoo financial info, it looks like almost 100% of REGN stock is either owned by employees or institutions. If they do not split the stock it looks like they really do not want the public involved except in ETFs or mutual funds. If all the posters are actual owners then we are a rare breed.
Generally speaking, many investors are scared to death of owning a $280 stock and would not touch this with a ten foot pole. Doing a 5 or 6 to one split would put this in an area where the average Joe might make an investment. I know that value wise it does not matter whether you have 1 share at $280 or 6 shares at $46.67, which is what all the anti split folks throw up; however, having a $27 billion company with less than 100 million shares is a rarity.
I also own CL which will be splitting 2 for 1 on 5/15. The reason they gave was to allow more individuals to invest in their company. Even though value is based on earnings and growth and not absolute price, there are many who are just scared of owning these high price per share companies.
3 splits. 3 for 1 in 100; 2 for 1 in 2004 & 2 for 1 in 2006. More likely 2 for 1 based on recent history and the fact that there are now a ton of shares floating around. There are already over 400 million shares outstanding and 83 % are owned by institutions. People shy away from this type of company because biotechnology is way to complicated for them. Investors are also looking for yield because interest rates are so low.
Hurting is a rather strong word and making the swap from ABBE to ABT depends on one's overall portfolio. I originally bought ABT because of the consumer products side, hoping that the drug part would go up and then swap into the new ABT. I checked back on my trades from Jan 2, 2013 and was able to catch ABBE up and ABT down and based on trading that day I am up 23%. If I held the ABBE I would be up 30.5% on the ABBE. However, I am not a fan of old line Pharma companies. One of the reasons that ABBE is up is due to the reach for yield. Instead I own CELG and REGN, whose values have gone through the roof due to their tremendous pipeline and wall street's new desire to invest in Bio-tech.
As an investor not a trader. I look at the ABT's, KMB's, CL's, etc. as great long term investments. Especially since commodity priecs have come down. Since 1900 there have been 4 secular bull markets in commodities and during each stocks went nowhere. They encompassed about 60% of the time. The 3 secular stock bull markets occurred when commodity prices are down and it appears that the 14-15 year run in commodities may be over. An example of what happens to these consumer stocks is #$%$ traded for under $1 (adjusted for Splits) in the early 1980's, just before the onset of the the last great secular stock bull market, and is now just over $120.
In the early 1980's, CL traded at less then $1 adjusted for all splits. From 1982 - 2000, during the last great bear market CL went from about $1 to just under $65 or a 65 bagger. Based on what I am seeing in commodities we may be entering a new secular equity bull market. Low commodities = high margins, especially for the Colgate type stocks. Not likely to go 65 times in the next 18 years, but we should have a decent run.
Utilities in general have been doing well. Investors looking for yield. I just checked the utilities that I own and they have performed as follows since open for trading Jan 2: MDU +22.5, OGE + 27.2, SE +11.9, VVC +24.4, & WEC +18.2. OGE is very strong because they are forming a JV MLP with Centerpoint to operate midstream and pipeline assets. MDU also has a oil & gas exploration company which has been spending a lot of CAPX on drilling. Their utility also operates in the Bakken oil shale area in western N. Dakota and that business is smoking. SE is more of a pipeline than a utility with 1.3 million gas distribution customers in Canada. Ethane rejection has been hurting midstream and pipeline operations.
If you are investing in this area SE makes a lot of sense. Pays 3.9% dividend and they are investing $20 Billion in projects to 2020. In addition they have an MLP and a JV MLP (DCP partners) which they own with PSX (Phillips 66).
Companies that are involved in new technologies are tough to value at any point in time. They are at the mercy of market makers, short sellers and all kinds of short change artists. We could get hit tomorrow: however, we may also see multiples of $52 down the road.
If you are a believer in progress and the basic story, you buy this company and continue to follow the events. I bought the stock over a few months at much lower prices than current quotes and have seen it go up, down and up again. Just like bio-tech, I think this is a wonderful technology and expect to hold my shares for quite a while.
All the utilities got hit. They have had a huge run and there is profit taking and some rotation to other sectors. I doubt there will be much in the way of gains in share price for a while. Last July the stock went from a high of 41 to 36 for the same reason. It is a solid company and the management continues to beat the analyst's estimates every quarter. These utilities (like VVC, SE, OGE) that have predictable earnings and dividends along with companies like CL, WM, SE give stability to portfolios. Then you can speculate with shale oil plays and biotechs.