Petr Message Board

The plan for Tesoro is to purchase crude throughput for Carson Refinery from the Bakken Shale.

The Baken trades currently for $15 to $20 per bbl less then what BP has been paying for crude.
The crude will be transferred initially by rail to the west coast of Washington State, then loaded on tankers to be transported to the port of Los Angeles. Even if transportation cost are $7.50 to $10 per bbl, the cost savings will amount to somewhere between $2,1 and $2,8 per day. That equates to an annual savings of nearly $1B per year.
After deducting inventory supplies, and the sale of pipelines and storage facilities to Tesoro subsiteraries, the Carson Refinery is only costing Tesoro a little over $1B. This means that return on investment will be nearly 100% in the first year.

Those savings are before synergies and reduction in forces are realized
The new company will profit, and Wall St. knows it.

The above math assumes that the Bakken crude will continue to trade at a big discount to WTI. It also assumes that the entire throughput of the Carson Refinery (280K bbls per day) will be 100% Bakken crude, that may not be the case.

So the millage may vary.

To put it in perspective.... the share price is still above the fifty day average. Today is options expiration. Lets see what happens next week.

Thanks for your imput

Allow me add this about Thalidomide, Revlimid and cancer.

My mother was a Multiple Myeloma patient of twelve years, which is about as long as it gets.
In the beginning, she was treated with various cocktails that had some degree of effect, but as the cancer grew became less effective. She was exposed to various cancer trials, also with little effect. After some years, she changed doctors to the leading MM Doctor at the Myeloma Institute in Berverly Hills CA. This doctor also had little success in the beginning treating my mother. But her second doctor was mistaken in thinking that she had already previously been treated with Thalidomide .. therefore did not expose her to it in the beginning.
Upon finally treating my mother with Celgene's Thalidomide, the cancer cell count was reduced dramatically to a point that she was either taken off chemo completely for lengthy periods... or by highly reduced dose given by tablet consumed on intermittent days.
Eventually she developed a allergic reaction to Thalidomide and had to stop taking it. She made the decision in November 2012 to stop the alternative chemo. She passed away in January .

Revlimid is an improved version of Thalidomide.

Personally, I'll never use chemo treatment if I ever am diagnosed with cancer. Thalidomide/Revlimid nor any other chemo drugs cure cancer in my view. Every time the dose was stopped or reduced, the cancer cells would increase again eventually
However, Revlimid IS IS IS highly effective at keeping cancer down at a manageable levels in many cases for many years, and this does server purpose for patients.
Strict food diets, increased oxygen, higher blood PH levels, managed stress are the best cures in my view. However, most cancer patients will never know this because the cancer doctors don't want them to know. And most folks won't never change their lifestyle.

Improve your immune system and cancer has less chance to get you. That is precisely what Revlimid does... improve your immune system

Celgene, Gilead lower after new data published at ASCO
A slew of pharmaceutical stocks are moving after they published data at ASCO, an annual meeting of oncologists. WHAT'S NEW: Gilead (GILD) is falling after announcing results from a Phase 2 study of its idelalisib drug. Patients with a form of leukemia received idelalisib and another drug called rituximab during the study. The complete response rate was 19% and the overall response rate was 97%. The leukemia did not advance in 93% of patients after 24 months. Celgene (CELG) is falling after its Revlimid drug achieved a response rate of 56% with a median duration of response of 13 months in a clinical trial of patients with multiple myeloma. Biomarin (BMRN) is retreating after the company reported that its BMN-673 was well-tolerated and produced positive responses in 65% of patients with ovarian/peritoneal cancer who had received the drug. ANALYST REACTION: In a note to investors, Piper Jaffray analyst M Ian Somaiya wrote that data for Celgene's Revlimid drug was positive. Multiple myeloma could become a $3B market for the company in Europe, he forecast. Data for Gilead's idelalisib was also positive, and the treatment could increase the company's revenue by $2B, he contended. Somaiya kept Overweight ratings on both Celgene and Gilead. Biomarin's data was "impressive," as the results suggests strong efficacy for its drug among solid tumor patients who had a median of four prior therapies, wrote Leerink Swann analyst Joseph Schwartz. He kept an Outperform rating on the shares. TODAY'S PRICE ACTION: In late morning trading, Gilead declined 2.5% to $55, Celgene dropped 4.6% to $124, and Biomarin sank 5% to $64.45.

hey Jaque.... good to hear from ya

Seems nobody hates Google, but still some Apple detractors. I see that some big investors doubling down on AAPL, other saying look for a $250 price range. Talk about the gamut.
I'm playing the long side of LNG TSO LVS CELG ISIS SM BAC QCOR
In and out of SCO ZSL TBT IWM YCS

I'm trying to stay partially invested... but keep getting sucked in to being more invested than I really want to be at this point in time. This market is something extraordinary. You don't see something like this happening every year.

Had some good luck with some options trading.... selling premium only on the put and call fronts.

Wished I had some GOOG... nearly pulled the trigger under $800... then it ran away.

GL

GOOG within striking distance of $1000 now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=GOOG&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=aapl&ql=1
Whowouldathunk ???
Only six months ago nobody would have imagined that GOOG nearly double the share price of AAPL today.

I'm not holding nor trading either currently

Enjoy now... pay later.

Here is the latest doc
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-boom-leaves-opec-111316495.html

I guess only time will tell if OPEC still has pricing power or not. The next few years should be telling for supply/demand oil.
If the price drops below $80 I'll be very surprised. I don't expect the price to drop below $70 anytime in the next few years. However, $70-$80 dollar oil represents a bargain compared to what we've been paying the last few years. I don't think a bbl of oil is worth more than $65... but it matter not what I think, I pay up just the same... as we all do who use energy.

I have observed this of late. The "geo-political forces" variable factor of adding another 20% to the price of a bbl of oil has been weak of late. I'm not hearing news anymore that adds amounts to much of a premium on a bbl. Interesting .... but that could change any day. In fact, all the Arabs need do is some saber rattling as we know ... and a bbl of oil goes up $12

doc
I'd like to agree with ya. cuz you're a sharp guy... and I'd like to think I think like you, but I don't on this topic.

If supply and demand matters regarding oil pricing, then it should matter most of the time.... not just when the stars align.

I guess you might wanna read about it then
Search ATF gunwalking scandal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATF_gunwalking_scandal

Really ?? Nothing to gain ? ... wow
Nothing except the truth.
I'll assume you would say the same for Fast and Furious.

How convenient to sweep under the rug lies, at a minimum failures.... how convenient for the current administration.

Spoken by a true BO supporter.

Good luck

I'm no oil bull, nor a fan of PBR company. However, the charts do indicate up.

Just sayin

I agree
I'm down terribly on OGXPY
However, I knew it was a lottery ticket going in at $10.

I bought recently at .88, and averaged down from there. Sold today at 1.08 for a

Wrong
Brazil may have a lot of oil, but even if they do, they don't know how to produce it for a cost effective price.

"State-controlled oil company"

You didn't need to read any further.

arwen, I just don't understand why a commodity that rose almost 700% in 10 years needs to be manipulated down. Usually we call that a bubble, bubbles correct no ?
Silver went up about 1000% in 10 years time, so silver has corrected at a faster rate than gold has. Those are pretty good bubbles in my mind.

Currencies correct, stocks correct, RE corrects, everything that bubbles pops or corrects... commodities correct.
The metals got to overdone to the upside... that's all. I'm close to the point where I'm ready to buy some silver. In fact, I attempted to buy some last week. But the only suppliers that were not sold out were the ones with too high of premiums, that may be telling me something already. There does seem to be demand for physical silver and gold.

Platinum went just as parabolic than gold and silver. I'm actually watching platinum very closely to see if it can hold this level. If not, it will likely correct more also. Problem is, the premiums on platinum are even higher. So if I buy platinum some day, I'll likely buy via stock or ETF.

GL

I'm not sure there are many non-OPEC countries that are able to increase output substantially wins, and if there were... why would they want to, only to push to supply down more ? Does anybody have the potential to step up supply against OPEC ? I don't think do.

As for the major(megacap) integrated oil companies, I don't know why you choose to find fault with them. Show my another industry group that is has earnings prices at single digits to share price, and dividends averaging over 4%... oil companies are still making plenty of money.

And I'm not sayin that the price of oil won't go lower... it well may. It never should have went as high as it did for as long as it did. I'm just saying for now, they could raise the price if they wanted to. Listen to any major oil CEO and they will tell you that the price of crude oil should be lower.

As for the Federal Reserve shorting gold, do you have any proof of that ? ... or just guessing.
I will agree with you on one thing, at some point in time the US dollar will get crushed and hyper-inflation will be the result. That is merely a matter of history repeating itself.

wins
I wrote a fairly long reply... and then lost it before posting.

In short I'll say that I don't feel gold was manipulated down. It's a much different market for gold than for oil. Gold being much smaller market among other differences. Different type of investors also.
When gold went parabolic it was sure to correct, it just took a while. Since gold kept testing the lower $1530 level, it was easy to break through that level by virtue of what was happening. Fears of Cypress selling gold initiated the clearing houses to raise margin requirements on gold.
If you wanna site that as being manipulative, I won't ague with you, but it's a typical response that happens when speculative investments get weak.

If there was manipulation it came from GS calling for lower gold prices at the same time Cypress was rumored to put gold on the market for sale. GS is great at moving markets. The rest was and is just technical... which some folks call TA as "a self fulling prophecy". Call TA what you want, but it's a powerful force than many traders do follow... some exclusively.
I follow TA as much as anything myself, I'm still looking for silver to hit $20 or less, based on my TA.

One interesting fact about gold, the GLD ETF is somewhat of a self firing manipulation on the price of gold.
The GLD ETF is the sixth largest holder of gold in the world. As the price of gold goes up, the ETF must buy gold to keep the gold/paper backing at 10% of equity. The same goes for when the price of gold falls, the ETF must sell. That alone create an unusual pricing metric for gold(and the same for SLV).

Folks, we are not dealing with real markets. The modern world has corrupted true markets bases on supply/demand. We have to many other variables effecting pricing to look to supply/demand alone. Are these other factors manipulations ??? .... I think so in many cases.

wins
I'm still of the opinion that there is plenty of oil in the world today. Anybody can make all the arguments they want about what there will be in 50 years.... nobody really knows.

Oil won't go or stay below $65, not because oil companies can't make money at that price, only because OPEC won't let it stay that low. OPEC, the energy traders, and the speculators. I think many of us have already realized that supply/demand is not the driving force behind oil prices. It's as rigged as the stock market.... perhaps more.

That's what I believe.

Nice call there jstck3, a low of $385.10 on Friday, are you buying yet ?

S&P is 1555, if the broad markets pulled back 5-20%. What would AAPL do, go sideways, go lower or go contrary to the market ?

That will likely be determined by the next earnings report(next week?), and guidance.
I'm not making any bets, but I do play the AAPL trading game on some days. I scalped more than $8 share on AAPL on Friday, but I've had loosing days as well.

GL