I am curious... you say this is the last year you will hold them.
How long exactly have you held and what exactly are you waiting and expecting to happen?
solid 2013? When the S&P grows by 30% and they only grow by 15%, thats not solid that terrible.
They continue the same pattern they have for years.
When the S&P rises they rise less.
When it drops, they drop by more.
Apparently obboi expects an average of $0.23 distributions.
There are high models and low models then there are poeple say to do the math when they themselves obvioulsy cannot.
bioscientist99: Options are priced for the collapse even on the few trusts that allow them. Its hard to short these and if your timing is wrong... you are paying double digit yields.
My best startegy in how to profit from trusts is just to walk away from them when they get crazy. I enjoyed BPT for several years but called it quits in early 2013. Yeah I missed a couple more payments and didn't sell at the top but its nothing compare to missing the $110 - $80 cliff.
I'm currently in WHZ which seems undervalued. I look for trusts that are trading at a discount to their estimated distributions and then let the "double digit yields?! Time to back up the truck!" morons do the rest.
One of the things I find most fascinating with trusts is in how the negative articles are seen by the market. Ignored, ignored, ignored, ignored, OMG PANIC SELL!!!
No idea why this one grabbed people's attention when others failed.
They get ignored because they are just short sellers trying to trick longs and shake out weak hands blah blah blah. However why does the one that actually gets people's attention do it?
ARCPs growth model was for the external management team to give the sweet deals to the ARCP I thru IV, collect management fees, then have ARCP buy it out and collect more management fees.
They went for quantity of growth over quality.
Now that they are internally manage things might be different but now that they are so big... its going to be hard to get growth
goodguy24: It always amazes me at how people have no clue as to what investments they have.
If the WHX drops are due to short articles and WHX is a great deal why not write a long story and watch it rise to $10
If by very good article you mean the one where "A Prudent Investor" believes rise in the price of oil will more then off set charge costs and BPT will pay a distrubution for the next 18 years then no.... its a terrible article.
"Using the average quarterly production the volume will be attained in 6 years. So much for the long life of this trust."
1: Declining production
2: Even if that happens, it doesnt matter. Its the LATER of the events that determine when the trust ends.
If your worst holding is net neutral (-20% to -25% but yields 25%) then you need some perspective about how terrible your situation is.
If you feel like a fool then use that as an indicator that you need to do more research and learn about your holding. Knowledge dispells emotion.