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Aurcana Corporation Message Board

rholl49oswego 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 25, 2015 10:40 AM Member since: Jun 1, 2012
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  • rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 25, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    The first PEA on Feb 2nd was just a restatement of the 2012 PEA with a few more resources.
    The new Presentation shows increased mill and pit throughput levels achievable. tacked on at the 16 year time frame.
    In fact these increased levels could have been started ... to build by year 10 through 15. That would have increased the PV and value of the mine greatly.
    Also remember that lots of resources will be added in coming years.

  • Pages 21,22 show output levels.

    Why didn't they do this on Feb2nd !!!

  • It looks as if the stars are still moving against WGPLF.
    All metals continue to hit lower levels since the PEA.
    Nickel is nearing a 5 handle.
    With the Yen down about 50+% in past two+ years the Yuan is only about 3% below its recent highs just above 6.00. With the China economy struggling a yuan move greater than 10-20% lower from here is likely in the next year or so.
    Currency wars are setting the stage for further... and move extreme moves in the various markets.
    Fed repressions continues.
    The Fed forcing banks to park about 2 trillion in excess reserves to cover losses expected in the future... says much of where we are.

  • Reply to

    More shares coming this Summer

    by rholl49oswego Feb 5, 2015 8:44 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 19, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    It looks as if the stars are still moving against WGPLF.

    All metals continue to hit lower levels since the PEA.

    Nickel is nearing a 5 handle.

    With the Yen down about 50+% in past two years the Yuan is only about 3% below its recent highs just above 600. With the China economy struggling a yuan move greater than 10-20% lower from here is likely in the next year or so.

    Currency wars are setting the stage for further... and move extreme moves in the markets.

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Feb 5, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    During the conference call they said that they were looking at raising more funds this Summer... to fund them through the PFS in Spring of 2016. ( 15-25% dilution depending on price and warrants attached )

    Only thing to dodge that would be a potential JV stepping up and buying a stake at multiples of current price. Could also incentivize some warrant holders to step in if the company does not keep extending them.

  • Reply to

    Recent stock sales - valuations

    by rholl49oswego Feb 3, 2015 9:43 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 3, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    One take from the conference call would be to start phase 5 (open pit in Far East by year 15_17 to supply higher grade ore. Probably see that wrinkle in the PFS or FS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Feb 3, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    The Dec. stock issue at .75Cad. valued the company at 107million (about 9% of the PV of the PEA) The PEA only looks at about a third of the resource base over a twenty five year period. The phase five open pit in the Far East for another 31 years
    The Wellgreen resource portion of the property will likely grow significantly from here (about 19 Million) also.

    That leaves the other trend sections on the property to provide more resource growth. This can be an operating open pit mine for 75 years and more.

    By the time a JV partner steps in during 2016 the valuation should be many times more than today.

  • Reply to

    PEA is out

    by tapakegortu Feb 2, 2015 7:15 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 2, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Pretty much all trade at the ASK until the close (MM?)
    Remember commodities are dirt in todays market.
    Does give a framework to advance from. In years to come metals prices will be much higher (than PEA's assumptions) and as a very large open pitable long life mine this will be very profitable.
    Note that all values in CAD$s. Current PV of 1.2 billion Canadian is about 950 $ US dollar.
    Basically just repeated the 2012 PEA..

    They do have lots of money to increase reserves through next years drilling... for the PFS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PEA is out

    by tapakegortu Feb 2, 2015 7:15 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 2, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    "•Total net smelter revenue of CAD$15.5 billion and operating cash-flow of CAD$7.5 billion over the LOM. "
    Remember that is 34% of current model reserves.

    "We ended 2014 with over $10.5 million in cash on hand, and are looking forward to an exciting year of prefeasibility-level work on Wellgreen, including a significant drilling campaign and further advances with respect to metallurgy."

  • Reply to

    PEA is out

    by tapakegortu Feb 2, 2015 7:15 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 2, 2015 8:08 AM Flag

    Nice to note that this PEA only targets 34% of the current pit constrained model ...first 25 years. A lot of underground mining for high grade ore.
    31 year open pit as follow on likely. That's a long life mine at current resource level.

    "•Total LOM production of 4.4 million ounces of 3E (42% Pt, 51% Pd and 7% Au), with 1.7 billion pounds of nickel and 1.1 billion pounds of copper in concentrate from approximately 34% of the current pit constrained Mineral Resource."

    " Base Case metal price assumptions: US$1,450/oz Pt, US$800/oz Pd, US$1,250/oz Au, US$8.00/lb Ni, US$3.00/lb Cu, US$14.00/lb Co and US$0.90 = C$1.00)"
    That's high today...but looking years down the road prices will be much higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Jan 26, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    As the ore body for Wellgreen has grown in size and depth an interesting change in Pit progression could develop.
    The largest and potentially further depth and lateral expansion of the ore body is in the Far East and East areas.
    These areas will carry the largest cash flows and should be targeted to access as early in the mine plan as possible.
    In the 2012 PEA these areas were in the last third of the mine life.
    If they start the main pit in the Far East (say 278,600-700) and Drive West and to depth they can develop these cash flows quite a bit earlier.
    Depends on further ore body development..... but still a possibility .
    As a large scale open pit mine this should be a very profitable mine at the appropriate time

  • "Wellgreen Platinum is fully-funded for completion of the PEA and for initiation of Pre-feasibility level studies, which will commence with a drilling program scheduled to begin in September"

    I expect that the extension of the deposit at depth and laterally are the goals of the Fall drill program. The funds raised this December will allow for an early start for drilling next Spring to move up the resources..

    Extending the potential depth and width and opening up the potential of further large resources will give a clear path and indication for the Prefeasibility study late next year. This will be part of the information conveyed in the PEA coming up.

    We should see drill results soon and then the PEA soon after them.

  • Reply to

    PEA Release

    by buyuranium Jan 13, 2015 9:22 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Jan 16, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Looks as though they are still realigning the PEA to an efficient open pit.
    They should have some drill results from earlier this fall. If they show more ore at depth and laterally they may modify the current PEA

  • Copper off about 10% in 2015... nickel back into mid $6s...palladium and platinum relatively stabile.

    Currency instability ... Euro, Yen and Yuan... as well as many others are putting upward pressure on the Dollar index (/DX). If Draghi does introduce significant QE as expected... the euro is projected to see parity... that would add about 8 or 9 % to the dollar index and corresponding drops in metals prices.

    We may be looking at further double digit declines in metals prices.

    Dollar weakness brought on by fundamental US economic weaknesses should ultimately drive the US Dollar to new ... much lower levels... and reverse the current commodity collapse.

    Over simplified scenario.

  • Reply to

    PEA now due in January ???

    by rholl49oswego Dec 25, 2014 6:42 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Jan 12, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    We should have some drill-hole results soon. Hopefully the company spends more of their cash hoard on extending the deposit at depth and laterally. This would enhance the economic value and drive the open pit only path... this should be accomplished before the next level of reporting is in.

  • Reply to

    PEA now due in January ???

    by rholl49oswego Dec 25, 2014 6:42 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Jan 12, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    We are continuing with weaker metals prices which represent 75 % of the value of the future mine output. (Copper sub 3.75 and nickel sub 7.00)

    Until the US dollar and other major currencies stabilizes... it will be tough to go forward with major new metals investment decisions.

    That being said Welgreen should be one of those early investment decisions.

    May be a number of years out though.
    (After governments start to actually give money to the people [Not the banks] auguring in higher inflation)

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Dec 25, 2014 6:42 AM Flag

    Changes to website.
    PEA now due in Jan.
    Dropped underground bulk mining from objectives. (pg. 3) This will allow them to move to realistic reports going forward.

  • Reply to

    Postpone next report ????

    by rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 11:08 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Dec 22, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    If you read one of my prior posts with metal price ranges you will see that Wellgreen can be a very profitable open pit mine... at the right time in the future.

  • Reply to

    Postpone next report ????

    by rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 11:08 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Dec 22, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    Anything is possible.
    The mine will only be developed as an open pit.
    They have been calling for a underground/open pit.
    If they present a report for this... it is meaningless.
    Wellgreen is more at the mercy of the Currency/equity/debt / metals markets...looking ahead.
    Currency wars and debt/$ bubbles are the major hurdles.

  • Reply to

    the real facts

    by jjeeddoo7 Nov 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Dec 8, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    Currency Wars
    Currencies are continuing to be depreciating against the dollar.
    I would not be surprised to see in the next few years... Japan to move back toward 1970s levels when they were an economic miracle (350s) The Yuan and Euro should also rapidly depreciate as they try to recover from their depressed economies.
    The only way for the US to keep a relative relational value is to join in the game. There are lots of different paths they can take... but they all depreciate the dollar.
    Real assets from food to gold to real estate and equities will be wildly inflated.

    The path though will see alternating crashes and expansion of prices. Watch oil..

    The trick is to keep liquid assets to target entry points.

AUNFF
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