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Aurcana Corporation Message Board

rholl49oswego 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 29, 2016 7:31 AM Member since: Jun 1, 2012
  • Reply to

    Exploration expands at depth

    by rholl49oswego Apr 16, 2016 2:05 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 29, 2016 7:31 AM Flag

    A little consolidation before drilling results next week. People still want to get in before results announced. This springs drilling will follow with a new larger program to expand and define new PEA opportunities. RIC is going to be expanding mine output and milling capacity modularly for more than a few years. Add a new bull phase starting for gold due to the end of the debt backed currency regimes world wide.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Apr 20, 2016 7:16 AM Flag

    We all know that the Deep zone is the currently most advanced potential expansion. This zone so far has thickness as much as double the current PEA and grades as much as 50% higher. That means that any given drill intercept has 200% more ozs. of resources... than intercepts in the current PEA.
    The area to the East looks to potentially be a third PEA. The current drill result are even higher with a cluster of 12-25- and 31 grams/ton -than the deep zone. Accelerated drilling for the next twelve months should expand the models to the east and at depth.
    RIC needs to define this area because higher grades and shallower depth can make this more profitable than the deep zone. I would expect that RIC will add an additional deep drill during the May update on current drill results. In addition these two potential PEAs may both extend down to 1500 and below.
    These potentials open up RIC to significantly higher valuations..... based on reserve growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Exploration expands at depth

    by rholl49oswego Apr 16, 2016 2:05 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 18, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    RIC will keep all 4 of these deep drills working on site as well as infill drilling from the 340 and 620 drifts for this coming years exploration programs. The deep zone is open at depth and laterally. The Eastern zone has strong values to plumb at depth and laterally. Don't forget Kezmar area where 2 ozs (60g/ton) was drilled below the old workings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ""•Higher production for the quarter was positively impacted by higher than expected grades of 11.31 g/t milled and record mill throughput of 834 tonnes per day. The higher grade realized in the quarter was primarily the result of a strategic decision to increase the ratio of higher cost ore development in the higher grade second mining horizon (55% versus a planned 40%) in order to best leverage our Canadian dollar exposure, as well as a positive grade reconciliation (mined vs. reserves) of 44%. The forward looking 2016 mine plan continues to forecast development and stope mining in lower-grade zones at reserve grade levels with a ratio of higher-cost ore development reverting back to the planned 40%. "" Note that the development ore grade this year is about 11.5 or higher than the long hole stopes. ( see this on slide 37 of the PEA from last Oct.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Apr 16, 2016 2:05 PM Flag

    RIC continues to move toward increased mining and milling expansion decision...... " •Updates on the Island Gold exploration drilling program continue to demonstrate the significant potential to grow production and increase mine life both laterally above the 860 metre level, which could support an upgrade to 1,150 tonnes per day, as well as the vertical extension below the 1,000 metre level. One additional directional drill (for a total of 4 drills) has been added to support the deep exploration program below 1,000 metre level but also to expand the drilling program in order to test the structure to the west of the current target between the 1,000 metre and 1,500 metre levels. It is expected that the previously announced exploration drilling program will be completed by June 2016, at which time the Corporation will review all drilling results and subsequently provide an update on additional drilling programs planned for the second half of the year."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • RIC is in the middle of a re-pricing process. This is due to two factors
    RIC is in the processing of adding high grade resources with thick veins in the deep drilling which is open at depth and laterally.
    In addition laterally... the near PEA shallower resources are also being added. This realization is adding to the ozs per share value
    Gold prices have also gained near 200 dollars an oz from the lows last Fall. With world wide economic dis-function and the failure of Monetarism and fiat debt backed currencies.. gold is going to play a bigger role in financing the massive fiscal deficits coming. Think back to the great depression.

    More ozs and much higher earnings spell much higher prices... even surpassing the prior highs...a couple of years back Less

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great results Ric dirt cheap

    by canada_maple_leaf Apr 12, 2016 9:26 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 13, 2016 2:04 PM Flag

    Back of the envelope says about that. To be conservative I would take 5 cents off. They probably high graded on purpose because gold was making a nice move. Long hole mining is much more efficient and will result in more ozs. mined with lower costs. RIC is going to be highly profitable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great results Ric dirt cheap

    by canada_maple_leaf Apr 12, 2016 9:26 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 13, 2016 8:34 AM Flag

    The April Presentation on page 22 shows the metal factor model for Island. Note the size of the resources at depth and also laterally to the East. Note that the drilling this spring is plumbing the model at depth and to the East. At some depth these high grade zones probably diverge from a large feed corridor !! Great structure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great results Ric dirt cheap

    by canada_maple_leaf Apr 12, 2016 9:26 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 13, 2016 5:09 AM Flag

    For the fourth quarter the rev. was about 31 million .....Fourth quarter loss was $4.1 million For the first quarter, the rev was 51 million............ If the costs are basically constant ( wages, depr. Admin, etc.) then subtract 35 million from 51. That leaves 16 million divided by the number of diluted shares. ( about 62 ) Its a big number. Now.... that is not accurate prediction in it self. Royalties, taxes, consumables, corporate, etc, etc change .......... but you have the general direction..... Add to these earnings the increases in resources, coming from drill program over the next few years.... You get the idea !!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sweet Spot

    by rholl49oswego Mar 4, 2016 11:01 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 12, 2016 8:08 AM Flag

    The just announced production results and costs bode well for result for the coming years. RIC will be making new highs this year and boosting resources at Island.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sweet Spot

    by rholl49oswego Mar 4, 2016 11:01 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 7, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    If gold stays in a range going forward earnings will be strong and the results of drilling will push Island to over 3 million ozs. by early next year. 10 to 15 is a solid bet by early next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sweet Spot

    by rholl49oswego Mar 4, 2016 11:01 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Apr 7, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    The reason that RIC stays strong is because they are in the process of adding a ton of resources to Island.... and gold is going to be strong as the liability backed currencies are reformed in the next few years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sweet Spot

    by rholl49oswego Mar 4, 2016 11:01 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Mar 11, 2016 7:17 AM Flag

    Drill results in April and July will continue to extend the deep zone. The second half drill program will start to test the deep zone below 1500 meters and widen the 1,000 to 1500 zone under the PEA and to the East.
    I am looking for a couple of million ozs. to be added by this time next year from near mine exploration. JMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Mar 4, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    RIC is in the middle of a re-pricing process. This is due to two factors
    RIC is in the processing of adding high grade resources with thick veins in the deep drilling which is open at depth and laterally.
    In addition laterally... the near PEA shallower resources are also being added. This realization is adding to the ozs per share value
    Gold prices have also gained near 200 dollars an oz from the lows last Fall. With world wide economic dis-function and the failure of Monetarism and fiat debt backed currencies.. gold is going to play a bigger role in financing the massive fiscal deficits coming. Think back to the great depression.

    More ozs and much higher earnings spell much higher prices... even surpassing the prior highs...a couple of years back

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Feb 26, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    BMO Capital Markets have initiated coverage on three underground mining companies namely Klondex Mines Ltd. (NYSE: KLDX), NEWMARKET GOLD INC COM NPV (OTC: NMKTF) and Richmont Mines Inc. (USA) (NYSE: RIC), with the first two being rated Market Perform and Richmont Mines started with an Outperform rating.

    Analyst Brian Quast prefers Richmont over the other two miners because it has the most reasonable P/NPV (price to net present value), and Island Gold can deliver the best bang-for-buck to shareholders.

    Each of the three companies has one asset that dominates the corporate valuation. Klondex has Fire Creek, Newmarket has Fosterville and Richmont has Island Gold.

    Related Link: Can Gold Miners Offer Up Earnings Surprises?

    "This group has dramatically outperformed the gold price and most other gold equities over the past year, more on the back of operational and exploration success than simple currency tailwinds," Quast said in a note to clients.
    This Trio Deserves A Second Look
    Exploration success has the biggest absolute impact at Island Gold, with Fosterville a close second. Foreign exchange has been a huge tailwind for both Newmarket and Richmont as the Australian and Canadian dollar denominated gold prices reach near all-time highs. However, it should not be assumed that all share price gains can be attributed to favorable currency movements, since both companies have improved operations over the past 12 months or so.

    Quast noted that when examining gold mines, underground gold mines have a history of outperforming open pit mines, and tend to garner a premium. This group of three underground producers tends to trade toward the upper end of valuation, particularly on an NPV basis.

    P/NPV of Klondex stands at 1.9 times, Newmarket at 1.5 times and Richmont at 0.9 times. Richmont trades at P/NPV levels below peers and Island Gold has the biggest potential to move the needle for shareholders.

    "Given the opportunity for exploration success that exists at all th

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gold price and earnings

    by rholl49oswego Feb 11, 2016 6:43 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Feb 26, 2016 9:10 AM Flag

    The latest drill results are very positive. So far a corridor of both high grade and thicker mineralization is being outlined in the deep zone. The next three months drilling should outline the deeper sources of this corridor (down to 1500 meters ) and identify the targets for more drilling at deeper depths later this year and next.
    After June more infill drilling within the corridor.... and deeper drilling below the 1500 meter level will commence. Also lateral deep drilling East and west will commence.

    Added lateral (attached ) inferred resources are already being identified in the diagrams and we will see these added to the PEA mine life over time.
    It is pretty obvious that RIC will add millions of reserves over the next few years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Feb 11, 2016 6:43 AM Flag

    While the guidance for production this year is going to be the same as last year...85 to 90.... the company should be more in the 95-105 range.

    Basically the mine will continue to mine in the non PEA shallower depths as the second PEA level (750) comes on in the second half.

    Every $100 increase in gold translates then to about 10million dollars. Add in the PEA increasing margins.... and you get maybe 20 cents per $100 increase in gold. Pick a number for the gold price and apply a PE and you can come up with much higher price targets

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Feb 9, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    The conversion of resources to reserves in the PEA makes the cashflow from the PEA more certain for the next 7 years.
    The deep drilling currently underway till May.. and the lateral and regional exploration is identifying new targets for the 2016 drill program. So far indications are that potential additions from these two years programs will add significant new reserves and resources... and add more than several years to the PEA lateral and deeper extensions.

    People should note that every $100 increase in gold increases revenue by about $9 million given current production levels. That's about 20 cents increase onto earnings... add that to increases in margins from the operating efficiencies from the PEA and you have much stronger earnings and increasing share performance.

    Note. We are nearing the end of the debt ( Liability) based currency regime. Nothing but positive for monetary metals...silver and gold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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