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Aurcana Corporation Message Board

rholl49oswego 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 8, 2014 8:46 AM Member since: Jun 1, 2012
  • Reply to

    the real facts

    by jjeeddoo7 Nov 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Dec 8, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    Currency Wars
    Currencies are continuing to be depreciating against the dollar.
    I would not be surprised to see in the next few years... Japan to move back toward 1970s levels when they were an economic miracle (350s) The Yuan and Euro should also rapidly depreciate as they try to recover from their depressed economies.
    The only way for the US to keep a relative relational value is to join in the game. There are lots of different paths they can take... but they all depreciate the dollar.
    Real assets from food to gold to real estate and equities will be wildly inflated.

    The path though will see alternating crashes and expansion of prices. Watch oil..

    The trick is to keep liquid assets to target entry points.

  • Reply to

    the real facts

    by jjeeddoo7 Nov 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Nov 23, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    I am most hopeful that the new year brings on exercise of the warrants next year... we are in the same camp.

    When I look at the fundamentals though I have concerns.

    The Major shareholders, insiders and public shareholders cut their ownership by 8%. Why are they going to buy shares at 90 cents or more next year when they could buy the same number at 60 cents ?

    The reason is that we are in the midst of a real currency war. China just reduced their rates and indicated an openness to have further rate cuts... in effect the Chinese are starting to devalue their currency. Add that to Japan and Europe and most of the emerging markets and the US dollar will very likely see further rises. Further increases in the dollar will put pressure on all base metals. In addition the US economy will continue to weaken.

    With currencies moving rapidly in reaction to policy actions by various central banks... Liquidity will be reduced and make it difficult to move on new mine investments. In addition market reations in the near future may not be positive !

    Welgreen is very likely to be built because it should be a very profitable mine some time in the future when things have stabilized and metals prices go well above the recent peaks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    the real facts

    by jjeeddoo7 Nov 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Nov 22, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    The problem now is that we are in a world wide recession with pretty much all relevant metals down the 20
    percent. The instability of the soaring dollar and declining Euro and Yen and Yuan is making investment decisions very difficult.
    Several year delay and dilution is on the way.

    Table 22.4 Summary of Pre-tax Financial Results and Inputs
    Item Unit Value
    NPV (8%) US$ million 2,396
    IRR % 32
    Payback Years 4.88
    Gross Revenue US$ million 33,240
    Smelting & Refining Cost US$ million 8,310
    Net Revenue US$ million 24,930
    Operating Cost US$ million 12,056
    Operating Margin US$ million 12,874
    Capital Cost US$ million 1,985
    Closure Cost US$ million 61
    Pre-tax Cash Flow US$ million 10,828

    Above is a table from the 2012 PEA which shows the cash flows for the project based on assumptions in 2012.
    If you take the base case and subtract 10 % or 20% the revenue and smelter fees are reduced while the other numbers change proportionately. Assume that the resources double from 10 to 20 and the LOM is still 37 years... and the mill is enlarged to say 48,000 tons from 32,000. Assume further that the capital costs are up to 1.2 billion. You can say that the gross revenue and other factors rise proportionately.
    10% 20
    Gross revenue goes to 60,000 Gross revenue goes to 53,000
    Less: Smelter fees ( 15,000) Less: Smelter fees ( 13,000)
    Net 45,000 Net 40,000
    Operating costs ( 18,000) Operating costs ( 18,000)
    Margin 27,000 Margin 22,000
    capital, closing costs ( 3,000) Capital, closing costs 3,000
    Pretax cash flow 24,000 Pretax cash flow 19,000

    Rough back of the napkin calc. says the cash flow is about double the original PEA under both options.
    I assume that the resources are going to continue to increase at this deposit and along trend to extend the LOM further.
    This project will be built .. one of the most profitable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Postpone next report ????

    by rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 11:08 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Nov 21, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Looks like the company will release the PEA by the end of Dec.

    The Company continues to advance its work toward completing an updated PEA for the Wellgreen project by the end of 2014. Achieved milestones related to this work include:
    •The updated mineral resource estimate announced by the Company on July 24, 2014;
    •Additional metallurgical test work, with results announced by the Company on September 3, 2014;
    •An update of the operating and capital costs for the project; and
    •On-going mine planning and mill process design work

    The 15 million shares represent over 15% dilution. All of the options and warrants etc. are currently anti-dilutive and at current metals prices will not be exercised.

    This means that further dilution will be coming next Summer.

    Currency debasement and dollar strength keep pressure on metals for the time being.

  • Reply to

    Postpone next report ????

    by rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 11:08 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Nov 6, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    The report has been delayed. This is understandable.. The commodity area is devastated and will continue as copper and the precious metal continue to decline in coming months.

    The phony economic recovery presented will be exposed in coming months as the election season ends.

    The drill results will expand the resource and increase the value of the asset.... but the building of an open pit mine will be postpones at least several years.

    This is going to result in probably 20 to 30% dilution to the current prices and as the coming crash will expose us to further declines.


  • rholl49oswego by rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    With so much change in the metals markets during the past month and still volatile, ( Pall down 4.5& today) I wonder if they will postpone the release until of the report.
    At this point the numbers would be relatively meaningless.


  • Reply to

    the 52 week low is .4327

    by mikeestewart46 Oct 13, 2014 11:11 AM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Oct 16, 2014 6:14 AM Flag

    Was just checking Kitco. Copper has a two handle and nickel has a 6 handle. That's the problem for Wellgreen stock.

    Futures currently down over 200 on the Dow. It start to look a lot like 1987.

  • Reply to

    Hatchet job on Seeking Alpha

    by rholl49oswego Sep 13, 2014 3:33 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Oct 7, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    We are in a difficult environment here. Wellgreen is a very viable project in the longer term.

    The difficulty is the market environment and government overreach.

    Do you believe that the economy is booming ( 4.6 GDP) or that employment is booming ( average American earnings still down short term and longer term) .How can the economy be booming with copper, nichel and oil....down. How can median American incomes be down with part time jobs replacing breadwinner.

    The macro environment is dictating what will be happening for a period of time here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hatchet job on Seeking Alpha

    by rholl49oswego Sep 13, 2014 3:33 PM
    rholl49oswego rholl49oswego Oct 6, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    There has been a perfect storm for all metals and oil in the last month.
    Soaring dollar for the last few months...China PMI weakness, HK.... Ukraine.... Iraq/ ISIS.
    Possible heavy correction in stock market.. Hard to believe economic statistics in US... just like China's.
    Under current conditions will probably be more mine closures than new mines built.

    Sentiment: Hold

0.272+0.032(+13.33%)Dec 18 3:57 PMEST

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