I guess you have not heard about the two largest investors in DTV. The names are Malone and Buffet, two of the greatest investors of the last 50 years and each of them owns billions of dollars in DTV shares for their holding companies.
Streaming does not get you the highest spending customers which are the people that love live sports. The hundred arenas around the country that fill with sports fans around the country are the same people that pay for high end sports offerings on DTV and cable. There is a reason the cash flow of DTV keeps increasing and profits are $5 per share for those that have invested. I actually invested 10 years ago. I suggest you look at the share price of DTV over the last decade on a chart and that will tell you all you need to know about their cash flow, viewers, etc.
I understand that over the next two years the fleet capacity is going to increase by 20%.
It seems to me this will decrease shipping rates and spot prices as the current ships
seem to handle the demand.
The share price keeps falling as the price of rare earth is below what is profitable for Lynas.
If this keeps going, they will run out of cash. I believe the Chinese would like to drive the
company out of business and buy it out of a bankruptcy filing.
I suggest you read their quarterly report or annual report so that you will know what you are talking about.
DTV management repeatedly has said that there growth in South America will continue at more than 1 million new customers each year after the churn. Now, Dish is another story as they have no customers
in Mexico or South America as does DTV.
dmorgan, you are correct about CNOOC being in a joint venture on 1/3 of the acreage. That leaves CHK with only 400,000 acres in the play which is 5 times the amount which Devon Energy is acquiring (82,000 acres) in the play for $6 billion. .
One more point. CHK has only been drilling in the Eagle Ford for about two years. Their production is still 40,000 more barrels a day of energy than Devon's acquisition in the
The best acreage is EOG's. The acreage in Devon's acquisition and CHK's is second best. Still, Devon is paying $6 billion for 82,000 acres. A monster sum of money. When one of the top multi-nationals including the Chinese wants to buy another chunk of land they will have to approach CHK in a year or two and that could bring in $6 billion or more which shows how undervalued CHK will be once it improves the balance sheet over the next year.
There will be 1,000 less employees on the payrol in 2014l, capex will be reduced and hopefully in a year they can unload the 10 oil and gas service companies for a couple of billion dollars and use that to pay down the debt. Once those things happen, I see the share price exploding.
Devon recently agreed to pay $6 B for 82,000 acres in the Eagle Ford with 53,000 barrels of energy production per day.
CHK has 600,000 acres in the Eagle Ford with current daily production of 95,000 barrels of energy
production per day. What does this imply for all shareholders? Well, CHK previously sold 60,000
acres in the less productive northern part of the Eagle Ford for $1 billion leaving them the best of
the leasehold. If CHK sold only its existing production and the same sweet spot acreage as Devon
acquired in the Eagle Ford, the buyer would still have 50% more production than what Devon acquired so I would assume it should should pay 50% more or $9 billion.
What is the other 520,000 acres worth. Instead of paying $60,000 per acre as Devon paid, lets mark it down to $30,000 for the rest of CHK's resource which is in the rich oil and liquids area of the Eagle Ford. The rest of that land without any wells on it which will take the next 20 years to drill is worth at least $15 billion at a price of $30,000. Am I crazy valuing that oil and liquids land at $30,000 per acre? It will probably be worth a great deal more in 5 years.
The market is currently valuing CHK at $16 billion. Devon is paying $6 billion for about 10% of the same acreage in the Eagle Ford and 50% less production. Chesapeake also has 12,5 million other acres with hydrocarbons excluding the Eagle Ford. You can purchase that acreage for free if you assume that the current Eagle Ford holdings of CHK are only worth the current market value of the stock. Devon Energy has established that CHK's interest in the Eagle Ford is probably worth more than the current market value of CHK.
Give the CEO another year of streamlining the company operations and unloading the the 10 oil and gas service companies and then you can better establish what the oil and gas acreage by itself is worth. I also assume the next year will see another acquisition or two similar to Devon's acquisition.
You need to compare apples with apples and not oranges.
The netbacks in Canada are usually $10-40 per barrel lower than in the U.S. due to transportation costs and the price realized for oil and natural gas.
Linn is paying top dollar for reserves, especially with the BRY acquisition. The unknown is the California BRY property which could hold much more oil than is presently reflected in the acquisition price since the acreage has not been drilled to confirm actual reserves
Linn reserve numbers also do not include reserves that are not counted at this time since the technology of the future will result in additional reserves such as the 20 million barrels in the recent Permian acquisition that Linn Energy says are not presently in their reserve total.
Still, even if Line has 1,000 million boe and $8.5 billion in debt (with BRY), that is a great deal of debt compared to those three Canadian companies that have the same energy and half the debt of Line.
You are wrong about Obama and the cost to convert a car engine from gas to natural gas. The EPA has required permits for any company changing the engine, pollution components of a car on the road. Any one that changes these things on a car needs a certification. The EPA has been requiring this for the last decade.
In Argentina where there is no regulation like the EPA drivers spend $300-600 for a natural gas kit and labor is half a day.
The U.S. regulatory process has nothing to do with this administration. Actually, we are in a mess because of the Bush presidents. They are the ones that went along with ethanol requirements to mix corn ethanol with gasoline which has raised food and fuel prices.
The natural gas regulations are EPA driven and extend beyond the time this administration came along, they have not changed and the Congress does not put any pressure on them to change and ease the way for natural gas engines.
Earnings per share for the last quarter are up 5% to $5.25 a share and it looks like the new technology with the one DVR that reaches 5 TV sets and records 5 shows at once is attracting more customers every month to rent the top of the class DVR. I have a COX and my mother has Time Warner and we can only record two programs at once and we are unable to watch another channel at the same time which is annoying.
In addition South America over the next two years is going to host the World Cup in Soccer and the next summer olympics in 2016, so the growth of 1 million customers a year South America is going to continue marching on.
Furthermore, the P/E keeps dropping and the PEG ratio are both superior to any other entertainment stock. Shares are under priced if you look at any other entertainment, cable company in terms of P/E and PEG ration.
Since June the only buyer of units has basically been Cohen. The rest of the board has not stepped up and bought any units even though the unit price has been declining for 5 months.
The market indexes have been climbing for the same five months to all time highs.
I think the 5 month decline in equity price and the lack of board acquisitions at the lowest prices of the year says a great deal about the ARP. The board does not think the shares are a good value in spite of the distribution. Why should any one else own this?
Can they issue more units near the low for the year to make any acquisitions? Yes, but that would not be very smart.
Yes, inflation will return someday which will help gold. The problem is unemployment in the U.S. and around the world, low paying jobs for more than half of all jobs and that is a recipe for low demand and muted prices and muted inflation. That all might change over the next 2-3 years. Still, the big miners are producing all the gold that is meeting demand and they are not making much money.
This mine probably does not produce for another decade and the cost of building it goes up every year. I have watched too many mines in Canada, Arizona and other locations take 5 years of hearings and planning and permitting. Then tack on the construction period. When would that put an opening date on this mine?
I think it goes lower in price especially if each quarter we see profits hard to come by at Barrick, Eldorado, Kinross, etc.
big mining companies have all the inventory they need. The problem with this stock is that it will cost $5 billion dollars minimum (without cost overruns) to build the mine and 5 years of time on top of that to earn a dollar. It takes 5 years to get permits and mines completed. Not too many companies want to spend $5 billion with the current price structure and have no earnings for 5 years on the $5 billion. Frankly, I think mine cost projections are much more expensive that projected as I have watched cost overruns over the last three years in this industry.
the problem with moving to more liquids is that every natural gas producer is concentrating on that and that will drive down prices on liquids which is what
we have been seeing as more and more liquids are coming to market.
No other energy company in the U.S. wanted to buy BRY during 2012 or 2013 when its price was much lower. Linn Energy is the only buyer that showed up, bid the price 9 months ago show that the share price jumped 20% and now is upping the price another 10%-15%/
One buyer only and no others for BRY during a very strong market in oil.
Linn, the only buyer, what does that tell you.
BRY shareholders will receive a dividend of almost $5 per BRY share once the deal closes. Yes it will take 12 monthly distributions from Linn over the year, but this is a very good deal for BRY shareholders. Linn unit holders might get another 5-10 cents per year in distributions over the previous 12 months and they are diluted another 10% over the previous deal with BRY.
Linn is taking on another $2 billion in debt from the deal and peanuts to the unit holders of Linn.
Linn would have been better off taking out $2 billion in debt and acquired 4-5 more deals like the last Permian deal they acquired last quarter. Instead, they are issuing $3-4 billion in Lnco shares and assuming $2 billion in debt and Linn unit holders get a nickle or dime more in earnings. Lousy deal for existing investors in Linn or Lnco and great deal for BRY investors.
dividend or distribution it makes not difference to either Linn or Lnco, it equals $2.90 presently. For BRY shareholders it will amount to a dividend of almost $5 per share, a very good deal for BRY shareholders and a mediocre deal for Linn unit holders.
Read the latest quarterly meeting report.
If you read my post it said where I got the number.
My concern is how management purchased two major facilities and the same report said that occupancy has dropped 30%. Those acquisitions are going to hurt this portfolio for more than just 2013. I would suggest you look for another security with a better yield. Take a look at LINE, ARP and BBEP.
I just finished reading the latest report from management. Was disappointed to hear that only 42% of tenants renew their leases. Also, hearing that 2 properties where occupancy dropped almost 30% could cause such a ripple effect to the entire performance.
While they are growing by purchasing and constructing new properties this does not seem to be helping investors in terms of additional cash distributions or share appreciation. Disappointing in my opinion.
I believe the head wind for campus housing like this is the rising costs of education: tuition, books, etc.