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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

richardleeds 66 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Apr 1, 1999
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  • richardleeds richardleeds Mar 3, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Enjoyed our discussion.
    Weather is always an issue if you have a 20-30-40 story
    builidng and you pay the heat and utilities and you have
    a winter that is worse than any in the last 10 years.
    (Especially when you are not collecting rent or you are
    unable to raise the rent). The buildings will be empty
    for a year is my understanding and they have to heat
    and cool it for the workers. The colder it gets the higher
    the expenses.
    Most construction has cost overruns due to rising prices
    of the components going into the construction. This
    winter energy is very expensive and this cost is going up.
    Until analysts like the quarterly reports there is going to
    be very little pushing the price up and frankly the markets
    should correct down after years of running up.
    This is one to follow up on when it shows a bottom, frankly everything should tumble 10-15% after markets have run up on cheap money.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Mar 3, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    I came looking at this as a possible dividend investment.
    Three things struck me negatively:
    (1) Basically dividends have remained flat even though they doubled the size of the company over three years.
    (2) The Copper Beach transaction is up in the air. They may buy and they may not. Plus Copper Beach has problems as they didn't want some of the properties. Now Copper Beach is behind in next year's commitments according to the latest quarterly by 8%.
    (3) Then there are the two big highrise projects. Do students really want to pay for the cost of a high rise compared to a low rise anywhere? Rents are always higher because high rises are more expensive than any 2-3 story.
    Where are the positives. JUst because it is an 8% dividend that is not a positive and selling below book value has never driven up a stock.

  • There is probably a reason they have not sold the acreage at the big dollars.
    No one wants it. In addition they are competeing against CHK and ECA for
    the sale of acreage and everybody else that is trying to unload acreage.
    It is not a sellers market. So what happens when the first quarter ends this
    month and the lousy weather further impacts operations?
    MY guess is that this drops in price by 10% more.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Mar 3, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Why do you keep ignoring the two high rise tower consltruction projects. Do you have any idea of the risk of cost overruns due to weather conditions and construction projects in general and cost of financing them? Obviously not. These are high end buildings and require high end rents. Occupancy in those towers is unknown as they start at zero occupancy and the rents will be the hghest in their portfolio, all risks? By the way, check out all the insider links on Yahoo finance and ignore the stock option gifts and concentrate on open market purchases by officers.

  • Many investors on the message board are thinking it is a buying opportunity.
    The officers tell you all you need to know: SELL, as they sold around 150k shares
    in January.
    The highrise developments are most likely impacted by the extremely poor
    weather this winter in North America. Bad weather slows down construction.
    Construction delays cause construction interest to go up and delays build out
    of your two big high rise redevelopments.
    The stock markets are on a tear hitting all time highs and this investment keeps
    dropping because the management has doubled the size of the company over
    the last three years but has not been able to increase distriubtions to investors
    to any great extent.
    JANUARY 2014...

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations

    by jc29142 Feb 28, 2014 4:33 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Mar 3, 2014 1:40 AM Flag

    You hit the nail on the head. They reward management and shaft the retail investor.
    If that does not tell every investor to get out and find better mangement it should.
    All officers own 2,000 units in total which basically says the management does not want to own any of the equity in the business, except for the nominal 2,000 shares owned by one of the officers.
    If I owned the business I would not want to hire any manager or officer that did not put his money where his mouth is, which should be in the company employing him/her.
    Glad I passed on the investment each time I looked at the quarterly report I saw no real growth in any area. Each time I looked at insider ownership I saw no officers willing to invest. That tells all astute investors all they need to know.
    What happens when the overheated stock market indexes (at all time highs) take a correction. Where do you think BWP is going.

  • Officers of the corporation own a total of 2,000 shares among them.
    That is one reason that anyone holding shares in this investment would
    be best served to listen to management. DO NOT OWN BWP and if you
    do you do so at your own risk.

    Seriously has any investor every heard of a company where the officers of
    the company do not want to own any equity in the business???

    I looked at this over the last few years as a possible investment and could
    never pull the trigger because I saw no real growth in anything.

    What a wise decision that turned out to be.

  • Reply to

    The Alternative Fuel Vehicle Development Act

    by dkwilk Feb 28, 2014 9:28 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Mar 1, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    You are correct, this bill will die in committee and never come to the floor for a vote.
    Reason, the Koch brothers were against the last bill because they want cheap natural gas for their chemical plants. The Koch brothers have bought the key Congressmen and Senators to bottle up any legislation that could result in higher natural gas prices and more demand for the fuel.

  • When the market corrects everything should drop in price.
    Even with no growth, poor operations, poor management
    this is probably a buy after the market correction, especially
    if you get it at $4.00.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 28, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    I have posted previously on this board about the problems for CLNE energy. My posts disclosed that retail sellers of fuel to end users usually have low margins. It does not matter if you are selling electricitiy or gasoline. Also the stations that sell fuel to vehicles are charging CLNE a 50% cut in sales to build station pumps on their land. This further cuts into any profit potential for CLNE.

    It is diffiuclt to be the last distributor in the fuel chain and especially when your rent is so high on each vehicle filled (i.e. 50% to the actual station owner/landlord/truckstop).

    There is a reason that CLNE is unable to make money. Even if volume sales double the profit is not significant per share to drive the price of shares. What is the big deal if a company earns 5 cents a share per quarter? No reason to buy these shares when you can buy the natural gas producers like ECA or CHK or DVN or COP.

  • Reply to

    Buying Opportunity TODAY

    by audphil78 Feb 27, 2014 7:42 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 28, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    This company has taken over to high rise buildings and is converting them into dorms. Also, the towers are going to be the most expensive properties requiring higher rents. Operating a highrise is always more expensive than a 1-2-3 story building. Will students pay expensive rents to fill the towers or will they be 20-25% vacant. If vacancy is high or the costs to convert exceed the budget, then the performance for CCG could be worse than last year.
    The new acquisition should be a concern also. Did they over pay for it? That is always a question with an acquisition. Also, in the latest report they disclosed that rent commitments for the next year when compared to the same period a year earlier shows commitments on the acquisition to be 8% lower than the same time last year.
    Uncertainty is never good for a stock. You might earn 8% in a dividend but what good does that do you if the share price in 2014 is down $1 per share over the 2013 price. Then what happens if they are having cost issues in converting the high rise towers and that comes to light in late 2014? Could it drop another $1 in share price. Sure. Just look what is happening here in 2014 as to price.
    The company is asking shareholders to gamble with them. Over the last three years they have doubled the size of the company but the dividend has not really grown (basically no growth). Uncertainty on the new acquistion and the two towers is gambling. If winter weather continues to be bad in my opinion that delays the redevelopment of the high rise towers. Delay on the towers causing more interest to be paid on the construction projects and delay in renting them up.
    If the acquisition they made last year does not improve rental commitments for next year during the next 30 days then there will be more negative news in the next quarterly report. I assume they will have to report that winter weather has effected the construction projects.

  • Reply to

    Buying Opportunity TODAY

    by audphil78 Feb 27, 2014 7:42 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 27, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    You say safety of owning the company. The company is redeveloping two high rise towers into student housing. This is always a risk. They also disclosed that the rent up for next year on the acquisition is 8% behind the previous year. It appears the acquistion target may underperform for them.

    Selling for less than book value is not a positive it is actually a negative. Companies that are selling for under the value of their assets means that
    investors are not attracted to the security. Selling for multiples of book value
    is actually a better investment.

    You are owning this for the wrong reason. Anyone that held this for the last year and collected the dividend actually did not make any money.

    It looks like 2014 will be like 2013 in terms of price decline.

    Existing real estate is not going to contribute to any significant dividend growth for investors.

    Why do you think this stock has declined substantially while most stocks in North America have gone up during the last few years?

  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 27, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Why do you think the stock price is up 50% from its low of the last 12 months?
    Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has bought a ton of the stock during the
    last 18 months. Do you think they know what they are doing at Berkshire
    Hathaway and DTV?
    Google search market penetration of cable and satellite in the countries of
    South America. You will see that the two largest countries, Mexico and Brazil
    have cable/satellite in 35-40% of the homes. Government projections are
    that the numbers will double by the end of the decade.
    What do you think that will do for the numbers for providers like DTV.
    DTV already has 17 million customers south of the border. If Latin America
    doubles its users of cable and satellite over this decade what do you think
    that will do for DTV?

  • Reply to

    Buying Opportunity TODAY

    by audphil78 Feb 27, 2014 7:42 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 27, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    All posters on this thread should look at the last three year history. Yes they are growing in size but they are unable to translate that into any increase in the dividend which means they are growing but the growth in size and cash flow does not contribute anything to the shareholder distribution.

    Dividend growth is absent and the income per bed is not growing sufficiently to increase the dividend. Given the option to invest in companies that grow dividends each year or those that
    don't grow and you get stock brokerage firms placing buys on those equities that are growing distribution. This equity is on every brokerage list for not growing distributions which is a big
    negative in the investment community and it is the investment community and search engines that investors use to find companies growing distributions. Without that the following for this company is not very substantial and therefore demand for the equity is not very substantial. This effects price of the equity and while the U.S. stock indexes have hit all time highs during the last year, there is not
    much demand for this equity and that is reflected in it selling for less than book value. Selling for
    a cheap price so to speak is really saying there is no demand for a company that has not increased the dividend for three years and that will probably be the same story in 2014.

  • Reply to

    why own TAC

    by richardleeds Feb 24, 2014 1:59 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 24, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    they are not going out of business but they are not going to make the dividend coupon clippers any money other than the 5% dividend and when factoring in the decline in share price they are not making any money. A 5% return is lousy.

  • richardleeds by richardleeds Feb 24, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    I see no reason to own this equity. The dividend does not justify holding as the equity has
    been in free fall when North American stock indexes have been going up to all time highs.
    Management has cut the dividend down to a level not seen in 15 years. There is no real
    growth and my reading of the financial information indicates that there is more pain to come
    with all the coal fired power plants in their asset base.
    I would be surprised if this does not fall much lower during the year wiping out any dividend

  • Reply to

    Just a reminder for new NRP investors

    by jrad52 Feb 23, 2014 2:37 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 24, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    bminoramajor, I do not take short positions. I am always on the lookout for investments with dividends or distributions that are growing and where there is growth in equity price. I evaluated this company thoroughly and prior to retiring I was an attorney-cpa here in Southern California. I come back every quarter and go through the financials and news on each potential target investment. When I first commented on this board about NRP the equity was much higher and I predicted it was going lower because there was no growth in coal royalties, the opposite in fact and no growth in the equity value. I suggested that investors in NRP revisit NRP when the decline in the coal sector had stopped and turned around and I further suggested that investors might want to sell and re-enter NRP at a much lower price. I suggested that NRP investors would see a better opportunity in distribution support and equity appreciation in BBEP and LINE. Since I posted that, both BBEP and LINE climbed 10% while NRP declined more than 10%. I still believe that BBEP and LINE will climb another 10% over the next year while NRP will probably decline another 10%.
    You mention that in your gut the decline in NRP is temporary but why ride an equity down 20-30-40% during a sector decline when you could have been in other options where the distribution and equity appreciation is double that of NRP?

  • Reply to

    Just a reminder for new NRP investors

    by jrad52 Feb 23, 2014 2:37 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Feb 24, 2014 3:38 AM Flag

    When management received almost a billion dollars for their incentive rights they basically ripped off the retail investor that got sucked in for the high and growing distribution.
    BTU said this month that they expect demand in China for coal to be down in 2014.
    Looking at everything, the IDR sale for units, the dumping by management of units
    the cut in the distribution and the lack of growth in coal use and therefore royalties to NRP and this looks like the unit price is going down more.
    The stock market is basically at all time highs and where is the price of NRP? That says it all. I looked at this as a potential investment and did not see anything to change the price trajectory. I previously said I thought this would drop down to the $14-16 range and from I am seeing, it looks like the bottom of my target is going to be taken out as soon as this market corrects. Nothing goes up forever and the stock indexes in the U.S. have been on a tear. When they correct everything is going down.

    I previously said why ride NRP down when you could get out and invest in BBEP or LINE.
    Those have both appreciated by 10% over the last quarter while NRP has declined by 10%. I expect BBEP and LINE will appreciate another 10% over the next six months and NRP is going down another 10%. So far my call on this one over the last 12 months has been right on target.

    Self-serving incentive rights do not help the management of BBEP and LINE like they do/did with NRP and other operators.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 20, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Actually you should read the press release from Diamondback Energy. The narrative is Diamonback's. My comments are about the engineering changes in the oil and gas recovery area that are going to impact this industry during the next decade the way horizontal drilling did which is not reflected for these companies future performance.

  • Just today LINN Energy's partner on its first horizontal well, Diamondback Energy, announced that it was adding to its acreage position in the play. The company is picking up 2,825 net acres in the play, and it's paying $174 million for those acres. The company hopes to eventually buy out its partners on the 6,450 gross acres that are associated with this asset package, and it's willing to fork over a total of $397 million to buy out those partners.

    To put those numbers into perspective that's more than $61,500 per acre. That's a lot of money for just 1,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day of production and about 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent in proved reserves. That's because Diamondback Energy isn't interested in what those acres are doing now, it wants the potential riches underneath. These riches include prospective drilling locations in the Wolfcamp A & B, Upper & Lower Spraberry, Cline and Clearfork horizons. In total, Diamondback Energy sees upwards of 112 future well locations.

    What this deal means for LINN Energy and LinnCo Investors
    Like I mentioned previously, LINN Energy believes it holds about 60,000 net acres and 675 future drilling locations that are prospective for the Wolfcamp. Using the latest Diamondback Energy deal as a guide, that values LINN Energy's acreage at upwards of $3.7 billion.

    I do not think this is an isolated situation in the Linn-Berry portfolio. From what I have been reading the last 10 years have been the horizontal drilling revolution in U.S. energy. The decade of 2015-2025 will see the same breakthroughs in EOR (enhanced oil and gas recovery methods). Many companies only recover 10-20 percent of the energy from a well. With improved methods and technology CO2 and water flooding recovery will raise those percentages to 20%-30%-40%. What is recovered from a well today is going to change significantly over the next 5-10 years and those numbers are not reflected in any major oil and gas company price.

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