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CVR Partners, LP Message Board

richardleeds 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2014 1:31 PM Member since: Apr 1, 1999
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  • Reply to

    A Great Run Company with a GREAT Dividend

    by taffy123414 Aug 18, 2014 4:49 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 25, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    say a great run company, how come the investing public has the shares at the low of the last 4 years. A dividend is nice but there has been no share price growth. Total return after the 15% withholding tax is not that great compared to many other dividend payers that also have share price appreciation.

  • Reply to

    August 12 - Q2 Results (After markets close)

    by capeoilbaron Aug 11, 2014 12:50 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 21, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    The real problem for the stock is the hedges on natural gas and oil.
    They drop to 25% and 30% of production. So if demand keeps
    dropping in China and other places and U.S. production keeps
    increasing there is going to be price pressure on the downward
    side.

    Also, the hedges that are in place for 2015 are at a lower price
    than 2014. So income in 2015 looks problematic.

    Also, the netbacks on each barrel of energy are only $27. Compare
    that to Lightstream where the netbacks are close to $50.

    I see real risk to the dividend in 2015. If my analysis is correct
    the share price will have more weakness in 2015 than it did
    in 2014.

  • richardleeds by richardleeds Aug 20, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    During the last week the price of LINE is down and over the last 2 days is up only about 10 cents.
    EVEP is very interesting which says something about investor demand for EVEP. EVEP is up
    $2.50 over the last two days and up $3.00 over the low of the last week.
    In the end unit price is about investor sentiment and demand.
    I own a ton of Linn Energy and very little EVEP but might have to reconsider EVEP
    with only $1 billion in debt. Think about it, when was the last time a MLP in the
    upstream of the sector moved $2.5 in two days. Very very interesting.
    If we hit a rough patch in the market and values retreat, EVEP might be the better option
    for distribution and price appreciation on the rebound.

  • Reply to

    What the heck is going on today?

    by erikciaramita Aug 14, 2014 3:19 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 19, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    You are absolutely correct. LINE is down, EVEP is up $1.50 today.

  • Reply to

    I guess we'll have the stuffing

    by wallpack123 Aug 12, 2014 10:41 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 12, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    Morgan and other investment banks do not help CHK as can be seen by the terrible
    hedging done by the new crew. CHK management needs to understand that these
    investment banks get rich by separating a client from his money. That happened
    with CHK and that appears to be the reason CHK shares have been performing
    poorly in the second half of 2014.

    If the price keeps going lower, Chevron, Exxon or PB is going to join together with
    Berkshire Hathaway in a joint venture to buy CHK and take it private before current
    shareholders reap the benefit of the make-over of the balance sheet.

    Still management needs to get smarter and understand that the investment bankers get rich off of their clients, not the other way around.

  • Reply to

    PANIC, Run, SELL, SELL, the sky is falling!!!!

    by johnlaw0077 Aug 12, 2014 3:30 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 12, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    no significant improvement and that is why share price is reaching for a low for the year.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Aug 12, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    The debt is not the only problem. The reason the share price is reaching the lows for the year is the under-performing asset base.

  • Reply to

    I guess we'll have the stuffing

    by wallpack123 Aug 12, 2014 10:41 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 12, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    The problem with CHK is their hedging is killing them.
    The prices they realized for natural gas, liquids and oil is below EOG on all
    three and that applies to most of the producers in the shale areas. CHK is
    getting killed and saw price realization and earnings crater this quarter because
    they are getting less than $3mcf for natural gas and almost $10 less for oil and
    natural gas liquids than other domestic producers.

  • Reply to

    Reply to Richardleeds

    by simbaassad12 Aug 5, 2014 9:15 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 6, 2014 1:54 AM Flag

    Simba,

    They did post your reply.
    When I looked over LNCGY I saw a company with a declining cash position, increasing debt and falling stock price over the last 18 months. The investment banker for the company had dozens of companies look at one of the possible deals with LINC and the interest was not great.
    If you look at the big successful deals around the world in Australia, Africa, Russia, Canada, etc., the multi-billlion dollar multinational energy companies and mining companies want in on the best projects and those are the European, Canadian, Chinese and American companies and they put up good money if the prospect and potential looks enticing. The fact that 99% of the companies did not want to come up with serious money should tell you a great deal about LINC and its portfolio of projects.
    On paper the value of many mining projects looks greater than the stock value but most mines that are not developed never get developed.
    As to the oil and gas in Australia that LINC holds leases on, the six wells that will be drilled is like looking for a needle in a haystack in terms of the size of the leasehold.
    The U.S. drillers: EOG, Chesapeake, SWN, DVN drill 500-1000 wells a year and to develop a prospect they drill dozens of wells each quarter, so the six well that LINC wants to drill in 2014 does not look serious to me. I realize wells usually cost $10 million each and LINCs cash position is a problem, so I see why they are not drilling a significant number or wells. It's too bad they could not interest another energy company to drill 30-40-50 wells. The cash position of LINC could take shares lower if it keeps falling each quarter.
    Share price decline over the last 12 months says it all, investors are not convinced and those 60 companies that looked around were likewise not convinced.

  • Reply to

    LNCGY CHEERLEADERS

    by richardleeds Aug 5, 2014 5:59 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Aug 5, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    Simba,

    The hand full of wells that Linc is going to drill is a double edged sword. It is like wild cat drillers in the U.S. 50-100 years ago. Finding the sweet spots in a large field takes half a dozen wells in every area of the field at different depths. This is going to be like fishing in the sea.

    If Linc had a partner now that was going to drill 30-60 wells all over the place that would give them a better picture. In the U.S. Devon, Chesapeake, SWN, EOG drill 500-600 wells every 12 months.
    The six Linc wells are really a pittance, a #$%$ shoot or long shot in terms of gaining a picture of this large leasehold.

    Wells typically cost $5-10 million each and usually you are at the higher end of the price range on land that you have not perfected your expertise and resource delineation.

    Until that coal royalty is in the bank it might just be pie in the sky, especially when 60 companies did not come up with an offer that was acceptable, that tells you that 60 companies did not really want to get involved.

    When the Los Angeles Clippers basketball team was made available last month they received three offers: $1.2 billion, $1.6 billion and $2 billion by Steve Balmer, the former Microsoft CEO.
    This royalty does not look like the same type of legitimate money offer.

  • richardleeds by richardleeds Aug 5, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Lots of cheering on this stock but ask yourselves why the shares have declined by 50% during the last year. If the company was doing great as the cheering would indicate you would not have had the stock at under $10.
    The projects the company is touting require years of infrastructure and capex expenditures in the billions.
    How long do you think that takes to put your financing in place and build out. Most projects I have watched in Australia take five-ten or more years to develop and construct before the revenue comes in. Same for coal to gasification. That is why you can count the projects on one hand and they involve huge companies that are multi-billion companies that can borrow $10 billion or $20 billion to develop a large project.

    This company appears to be pie in the sky and I am sure we will not see any significant revenues on a yearly basis for years. In fact with the market cap of the stock and cash reserves I wonder how low these shares fall during a significant market correction?

    SHOW ME THE MONEY!!! I DO NOT SEE IT IN THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS and neither do investors around the world. Anyone make any money on this stock in 2013 or 2014??? That answer should tell you everything. These hyped projects are far from existing infrastructure which takes years to build.

    Company is overpriced in my opinion and I believe share prices will go much lower during the next quarter.

  • Reply to

    Strong Buy. . . because. . .

    by tonygin Jul 24, 2014 2:09 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 24, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Ensco is adding what 6-7-8-9 new rigs over the next 6-12-18 months. Not only Ensco but the other big three are also doing the same number of new rigs for off shore drilling.
    With all drillers showing weaker utilization and weaker pricing other than SDRL, there is going to be a glut in 2015. You should expect all drillers to drop in price. Is that 10%. Most people think the entire market is going to experience a drop which occurs every 5-6 years. The drillers could drop more than the entire market especially if those 20 new rigs being delivered to all the drillers next year only have 50% utilization and at lower rates.

  • Reply to

    McDonald's and tained meat at its restaurants

    by richardleeds Jul 21, 2014 4:53 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 22, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    The sad thing about the tainted meat that was sold to McD. KFC, etc.,
    was not that it was sold to them, but that they do not test the product weekly and this was exposed by an investigative tv reporter with a camera planted inside the plant.

    Why are McDonald's, KFC and Pizza Hut buying meat from vendors, especially and China and the executives at these companies do not test the product they buy to see that they are getting what they pay for???

  • The sad thing about McDonald's buying expired meat
    and selling it is that the management in China
    trusted the Chinese to not sell them tainted food.
    Why would anyone who knows the Chinese
    trust them to give them the required specified
    product? I think McDonald's management was
    asleep.
    When dealing with the Chinese you have to test
    what you buy or you get inferior product-components
    etc.

    Tainted food, tainted water, tainted air are a given in
    China. It is a major polluted
    environment and that includes food and water and
    it is only getting worse.

    This is one reason that wealthy Chinese have been
    flooding into home purchases in Australia, Canada
    and the U.S. over the last decade. The city of Irvine
    in Southern California according to the L.A. Times
    this week is now 43% Asian.

    You have to wonder about McDonald's management
    not testing their food suppliers product every week.

  • Reply to

    does this drive any CHK investors crazy???

    by richardleeds Jul 14, 2014 2:30 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 14, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    Try the Yahoo Finance graph for the last 5 years on OAS and CHK and compare the two. One company is up 60% over the last 5 years and the other is up 250% over the same period.
    Let's deal with the real impact of that message and my comment.

    I did make a slight miscalculation as you pointed out. SSE is taking off $1 billion of debt once they release the next financial statement in another month. Quite an impact on the performance of the shares don't you think.

    The point I was trying to make and cheerleaders missed is that OAS and CHK had similar amounts of acreage in the Williston basin. CHK dumped their holding in the Williston( what did that achieve in comparison to OAS having a value of $6 billion based on the Williston. That is the real point.

    The second major point is that OAS has $2 billion of debt and stock market capitalization of $6 billion. CHK has a stock market capitalization of $18 billion and $11 billion in debt. It's an issue of value and valuation as determined by investors.

    OAS investors achieved a 250% return over the last 5 years on the Williston and CHK saw their company sell a similar amount of acreage in the Williston.

  • Oasis (OAS) is worth one third the value of CHK and basically operates
    on 500k acres in the Williston Basin about the same acreage that CHK
    sold in the Williston area back in 2013.

    I realize that OAS only has $2 billion in debt while CHK has $12 billion in
    debt but CHK produces as much production in one of its major areas as
    OAS produces for its entire company.

    That debt is an albatross around CHK's neck and the company keeps
    reporting sales of assets (another this week), but they are small potatoes
    in comparison to the $12 billion debt.

    It drives me crazy to see OAS at a market cap of $6 billion and it keeps
    going up and up while CHK is going sideways.

    Unloading $150 million in assets or $300 million has cumulatively not
    reduced that total long term debt number, not in 2013 nor 2014.

    I realize the balance sheet is being "de-leveraged" or whatever but the
    shares are stuck.

    I would not be surprised if OAS continues to outperform CHK in 2014.

    Was it a mistake to sell the Williston acreage in 2013 for peanuts when
    the companies in that formation have been going crazy in 2013 and 2014?

    OAS seems to indicated that it was.

  • Reply to

    TOTAL BAN on horizontal drilling

    by natty_0ner Jul 4, 2014 1:35 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 7, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    Nonsense. Show us your brain power before spouting off or do your research first.
    PM - from $33-91 a share and dividend from 40 to 94 cents since 2000.
    Lorillard- from $19 to $65 a share over last 5 years, dividend from 30cents up to 60 cents.
    Reynolds-$4 a share to $60 a share since 2000 for a 1,000% return, dividend up from 20 cents to 67 cents for a 300% increase.

  • Reply to

    TOTAL BAN on horizontal drilling

    by natty_0ner Jul 4, 2014 1:35 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 7, 2014 1:54 AM Flag

    tobacco at risk? Give me a break. The dividends paid by the tobacco industry to its shareholders have been the greatest over the last ten years in tobacco's history. Same goes for the value of the companies.
    These tobacco multinationals own interests in cigarette companies all around the world. Have you ever heard of China? Five times the size of the U.S. with the greatest per capita consumption of cigarettes on earth.

    You really think the oil and gas industry is at risk? Carl Icahn is the largest individual shareholder in this company. How do you think he got to be so rich? Investing in companies that offered the best returns that is how. You do not become one of the wealthiest 50 Americans by being stupid and he did it by investing smart. That is why he owns more of CHK than all the posters on this message board.

  • There is a reason that CMLP is paying 9.25% on the preferred issue, the balance sheet debt.
    Linn Energy which I own a pile of is only paying 6.5% on its debt and expects that to drop with
    the Moody's upgrade on Linn Debt.
    CMLP has too much debt and this preferred issue is really the same thing with a very high cost.

    I would stay away from this until there is a market correction and they get the debt under control
    and demonstrate the ability to pay less to finance expansion. There is a reason that CMLP has
    to pay these high interest rate/dividend rates on debt/preferred.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo energy analyst implies Linn overpaid

    by richardleeds Jun 30, 2014 12:26 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jul 1, 2014 1:22 AM Flag

    If you look closely, it appears Devon told its shareholders and analysts that they expected to receive between $1.2-1.4 billion. How is it that Linn Energy was pushed into paying so much more? That is what Linn investors should be asking.

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