More students will live at home as college costs keep escalating in future years. Also, interest rates will be rising from 2014 onward which will impact real estate with debt. Investors should ask why the company has been unable to raise the dividend for the last three years. Basically the dividend remains flat which means no real growth for investors. I see no change in 2014. Buying in a retirement account is fine but for taxable investors, getting a 7% dividend, 5% after state and federal taxes is not all that great. Better to invest in companies that are paying 2-3-4% dividends and growing share price which is not taxable.
You say Longview is a great little Canadian oil company. Cutting the dividend by 20% and a share
price that has fallen by 50% during the last year when all stock market indexes have hit all time
records does not see to me a very good investment. Most investors have lost more money in this stock in the last year to wipe out dividends paid in 2012, 2013 and 2014. So much for a great little company.
This company more than doubled in size in terms of locations and apartment bed counts and this did nothing for distributions or shareholders. What make you think if they double in size again this will help investors? It did not work the last time. There is a reason this keeps falling and I believe it is because they are unable to do anything to increase the return for shareholders. Management is the only winner hear as they get stock options, bonuses, etc. What are shareholders getting? 5% after state and federal taxes. But that net dividend does not account for any decline that shareholders have experienced.
Appreciate your comments. Yes, I was concerned that the pipeline contract fees were being renewed at lower rates. The distribution from the current cash flow is fine but these MLPs get clobbered when they reduce the distribution. My take is that they could reduce the distribution in 2014 and the price would take a major hit.
Natural gas prices have had a major increase over the last 12 months going from $2 to $4+ and
this is not helping BWP. I noticed that the price had dropped 25% while natural gas prices and the markets have been on a tear. I was concerned a cut in the dividend could create another drop 25% which is about 3 years of distributions.
BWP seems to be the only pipeline company that has not been on a tear which means their pipelines do not have the demand of others.
Was looking at BWP for a possible investment and I must say I am wondering why
anyone would invest when the price is at the same level as the low 4 years ago.
The market indexes are all around all time highs and this is down at the low
reached around 4 years ago. So what is wrong?
Investors need to take in consideration that 2 of the last 4 distributions of UAN
were mediocre. Also, Congress has a bill to eliminate the requirement to
add corn ethanol into gasoline mixing. Frankly, requiring corn to be added to
gasoline is an expensive joke on mass America. Should the bill pass, this will
probably reduce corn demand and therefore UAN demand.
Even if the Congress keeps the corn mandate for gas, UAN's performance
has been pretty inconsistent and I will not be surprised if the dividend gets
cut in 2014.
FSC could fall further if the FED reduces it bond buying which is likely in 2014.
Earnings of FSC did not cover the dividend so they reduced the dividend. There
is nothing that guarantees that the dividend will not be cut further.
The stock market has been on a big run in 2013. This is not likely to continue.
The Fed has been manipulating the stock market and this will end at some point.
I didn't hear anything in the investor day to impress me. For the last three years they have been distributing the same basic 16 cents a quarter. I did not hear anything that indicated they could grow the dividend even though they make a big deal that the acquisitions and revenues have grown by 100% since the IPO. They have tripled the size of the company since the IPO but that is doing nothing for investors.
In fact the price of the shares is lower than at the time of the IPO. I'm not impressed.
I guess you have not heard about the two largest investors in DTV. The names are Malone and Buffet, two of the greatest investors of the last 50 years and each of them owns billions of dollars in DTV shares for their holding companies.
Streaming does not get you the highest spending customers which are the people that love live sports. The hundred arenas around the country that fill with sports fans around the country are the same people that pay for high end sports offerings on DTV and cable. There is a reason the cash flow of DTV keeps increasing and profits are $5 per share for those that have invested. I actually invested 10 years ago. I suggest you look at the share price of DTV over the last decade on a chart and that will tell you all you need to know about their cash flow, viewers, etc.
I understand that over the next two years the fleet capacity is going to increase by 20%.
It seems to me this will decrease shipping rates and spot prices as the current ships
seem to handle the demand.
The share price keeps falling as the price of rare earth is below what is profitable for Lynas.
If this keeps going, they will run out of cash. I believe the Chinese would like to drive the
company out of business and buy it out of a bankruptcy filing.
I suggest you read their quarterly report or annual report so that you will know what you are talking about.
DTV management repeatedly has said that there growth in South America will continue at more than 1 million new customers each year after the churn. Now, Dish is another story as they have no customers
in Mexico or South America as does DTV.
dmorgan, you are correct about CNOOC being in a joint venture on 1/3 of the acreage. That leaves CHK with only 400,000 acres in the play which is 5 times the amount which Devon Energy is acquiring (82,000 acres) in the play for $6 billion. .
One more point. CHK has only been drilling in the Eagle Ford for about two years. Their production is still 40,000 more barrels a day of energy than Devon's acquisition in the
The best acreage is EOG's. The acreage in Devon's acquisition and CHK's is second best. Still, Devon is paying $6 billion for 82,000 acres. A monster sum of money. When one of the top multi-nationals including the Chinese wants to buy another chunk of land they will have to approach CHK in a year or two and that could bring in $6 billion or more which shows how undervalued CHK will be once it improves the balance sheet over the next year.
There will be 1,000 less employees on the payrol in 2014l, capex will be reduced and hopefully in a year they can unload the 10 oil and gas service companies for a couple of billion dollars and use that to pay down the debt. Once those things happen, I see the share price exploding.
Devon recently agreed to pay $6 B for 82,000 acres in the Eagle Ford with 53,000 barrels of energy production per day.
CHK has 600,000 acres in the Eagle Ford with current daily production of 95,000 barrels of energy
production per day. What does this imply for all shareholders? Well, CHK previously sold 60,000
acres in the less productive northern part of the Eagle Ford for $1 billion leaving them the best of
the leasehold. If CHK sold only its existing production and the same sweet spot acreage as Devon
acquired in the Eagle Ford, the buyer would still have 50% more production than what Devon acquired so I would assume it should should pay 50% more or $9 billion.
What is the other 520,000 acres worth. Instead of paying $60,000 per acre as Devon paid, lets mark it down to $30,000 for the rest of CHK's resource which is in the rich oil and liquids area of the Eagle Ford. The rest of that land without any wells on it which will take the next 20 years to drill is worth at least $15 billion at a price of $30,000. Am I crazy valuing that oil and liquids land at $30,000 per acre? It will probably be worth a great deal more in 5 years.
The market is currently valuing CHK at $16 billion. Devon is paying $6 billion for about 10% of the same acreage in the Eagle Ford and 50% less production. Chesapeake also has 12,5 million other acres with hydrocarbons excluding the Eagle Ford. You can purchase that acreage for free if you assume that the current Eagle Ford holdings of CHK are only worth the current market value of the stock. Devon Energy has established that CHK's interest in the Eagle Ford is probably worth more than the current market value of CHK.
Give the CEO another year of streamlining the company operations and unloading the the 10 oil and gas service companies and then you can better establish what the oil and gas acreage by itself is worth. I also assume the next year will see another acquisition or two similar to Devon's acquisition.
You need to compare apples with apples and not oranges.
The netbacks in Canada are usually $10-40 per barrel lower than in the U.S. due to transportation costs and the price realized for oil and natural gas.
Linn is paying top dollar for reserves, especially with the BRY acquisition. The unknown is the California BRY property which could hold much more oil than is presently reflected in the acquisition price since the acreage has not been drilled to confirm actual reserves
Linn reserve numbers also do not include reserves that are not counted at this time since the technology of the future will result in additional reserves such as the 20 million barrels in the recent Permian acquisition that Linn Energy says are not presently in their reserve total.
Still, even if Line has 1,000 million boe and $8.5 billion in debt (with BRY), that is a great deal of debt compared to those three Canadian companies that have the same energy and half the debt of Line.
You are wrong about Obama and the cost to convert a car engine from gas to natural gas. The EPA has required permits for any company changing the engine, pollution components of a car on the road. Any one that changes these things on a car needs a certification. The EPA has been requiring this for the last decade.
In Argentina where there is no regulation like the EPA drivers spend $300-600 for a natural gas kit and labor is half a day.
The U.S. regulatory process has nothing to do with this administration. Actually, we are in a mess because of the Bush presidents. They are the ones that went along with ethanol requirements to mix corn ethanol with gasoline which has raised food and fuel prices.
The natural gas regulations are EPA driven and extend beyond the time this administration came along, they have not changed and the Congress does not put any pressure on them to change and ease the way for natural gas engines.
Earnings per share for the last quarter are up 5% to $5.25 a share and it looks like the new technology with the one DVR that reaches 5 TV sets and records 5 shows at once is attracting more customers every month to rent the top of the class DVR. I have a COX and my mother has Time Warner and we can only record two programs at once and we are unable to watch another channel at the same time which is annoying.
In addition South America over the next two years is going to host the World Cup in Soccer and the next summer olympics in 2016, so the growth of 1 million customers a year South America is going to continue marching on.
Furthermore, the P/E keeps dropping and the PEG ratio are both superior to any other entertainment stock. Shares are under priced if you look at any other entertainment, cable company in terms of P/E and PEG ration.
Since June the only buyer of units has basically been Cohen. The rest of the board has not stepped up and bought any units even though the unit price has been declining for 5 months.
The market indexes have been climbing for the same five months to all time highs.
I think the 5 month decline in equity price and the lack of board acquisitions at the lowest prices of the year says a great deal about the ARP. The board does not think the shares are a good value in spite of the distribution. Why should any one else own this?
Can they issue more units near the low for the year to make any acquisitions? Yes, but that would not be very smart.