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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

richardleeds 222 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Apr 1, 1999
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  • richardleeds richardleeds 15 hours ago Flag

    who sells a business near lows for your product inventory during the last five years, anyone with a brain does not, lets wait 12 months for the Middle East wars to keep spreading and damaging energy infrastructure.

  • Reply to

    PATIENCE IS THE KEY HERE

    by bored_man_in_office 21 hours ago
    richardleeds richardleeds 18 hours ago Flag

    The president is showing great fiscal discipline and cleaning up the company. Give him another 12 months and then he asks him Chairman of the Board to take it to his friends at COP. CHK will be gone by next summer. Also, Icahn and others want $40 and by this time next summer oil will be back to $75-80, but that only if Saudi Arabia oil targets have not been hit by terrorists. Anyone think the war in the Middle East has not been spreading each month, month after month and is not going to keep growing????

  • Every month the Middle East deteriorates in chaos. Saudi Arabia has a war
    on its borders. When are the terrorists going to strike Saudi oil infrastructure?
    If the Muslim terrorists could hit NYC and Boston they can easily hit Saudi
    targets. When that happens and it will any guess on the price of oil?
    Anyone????

  • Pretty pricey if you ask me. Why would anyone including the new shareholders from this public offering be willing to pay 50% more for the ships than they cost the company? Even with a dividend that pays 10% it will take five years to reach breakeven on the value of the balance sheet. I realize you are buying more than the ships, you are buying a business, but the business is leasing out ships. While only 10% of the fleet might not be earning any income at the present time, that utilization can drop in the future if too many ships come out of the shipyards which appears to be an issue for 2015, 2016, etc.

    The people that got in when the shares were $7 during the last year made a smart purchase. I have my doubts about those buying in at the public offering this week. I think being enticed by the yield is dangerous when it comes to shipping and ships especially when the fleet is valued by the market at 50% above the cost of the ships.

  • Reply to

    $20 OIL is STILL

    by mike_masin Apr 15, 2015 5:26 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 16, 2015 2:03 AM Flag

    If $20 oil and $2 natural gas is coming why did the Chairman and largest shareholder buy 5 million shares last month. You must think they are idiots. But would idiots have that much net worth. Both guys are self-made by the way, no inherited money. They are wrong or you are wrong. My money says you are.

  • Reply to

    Joke Raising $6M?

    by bullmkt2013 Apr 8, 2015 6:37 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 15, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    The posters on this thread have it absolutely right. Management that issues shares having an 11% coupon plus the costs to issue the debt to the financial community puts the cost at above this amount. The retail investor is going to get hosed by management, suckered in by a yield while the units crater. Management should have paid this sum for the LP rather than spend time and money to pay double the interest rate that Linn Energy is paying for money.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 14, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    What are you smoking. Aubrey M.'s new company, LP, owns 250,000 acres in this formation and CHK just received about 2% of that acreage. The total investment in this formation is reflected on their website as being worth $1.2 billion. So CHK received about 2% of that in acreage. You are off by 90% on the value of the acreage. The acreage might be worth $25 million tops.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 14, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    6,000 acres is not big, as wells are drilled every 40-600 acres in most formations. This is not that many drill sites and you do have to spend a bunch of money to drill and they already have hundreds of thousands of acres in this formation, so increasing the acreage by 1% in the area is nothing, a drop in the bucket.

  • richardleeds by richardleeds Apr 14, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    Two Oklahoma oil and gas companies.
    DVN up almost $2 today, CHK up about $.50.
    Do I like it no, but it shows how unloved the
    company is by Wall Street. I suspect the only
    thing that will change is the eventual buy out
    of the company.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 13, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    actually, insiders are not allowed to purchase shares if their is a deal that is being discussed. It is illegal to trade on information not available to the public. They bought because they see the shares as being cheap. They also believe that the 10 largest oil and gas companies in the world will continue to buy up smaller companies. The 10 largest oil companies are worth $100 billion to $400 billion. A CHK bought at $25 billion in stock is will eventually happen. Shell just agreed to pay $70 billion for a company. The other 9 top dogs in the sector are not going to sit around and watch. They all want to get bigger, so look at the companies that are ranked 11-20 that are not in the top ten and you will see the merger candidates. Cheaper ones probably bite the dust first during the next 6-18 months.

  • Reply to

    Is TGB a buy yet?

    by newbeat2000 Apr 9, 2015 1:00 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 13, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    If you think management has done a good job over the last five years for the company and shareholders then invest in the company. If you think management has done a lousy job then stay away or if you have shares then dump your shares. It is very simple. Look at shareholder prices, profitability (costs to produce) and make your decision. Don't ask others to think for you or give you a tip, that is dangerous.

  • Reply to

    The recovery is actually following 2009's recovery

    by gar4one Apr 9, 2015 4:27 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 9, 2015 8:42 PM Flag

    The difference is that the technology is so much better now on each well drilled and then throw in better enhanced recovery methods. I think we will have more energy available this time as technology in the oil field is getting better. What we have now that did not exist is that Saudi Arabia is at war in Yemen, could spill over into Saudi Arabia, Libya is in shambles, so is Iraq and Syria (not a producer). Will Iran and Saudi Arabia both get dragged into a war? The Middle East could blow up and that means oil infrastructure could take a hit in 2015 or 2016. We know what that will do to prices. Back up t $100-150.
    I want Isis to sink a ship in the shipping lanes or blow up a key Saudi pipeline and put it out of commission for 3-6 months, then we see a real shortage.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 8, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    You are correct, Archie knows the top executives, his replacement and the board at COP. I also assume he is a large shareholder in both COP and CHK. If CHK does not remain independent by selling off another 5-6-7% for $5 billion

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 8, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    I agree. CVX or XOM could take any one of them out but I think it will be COP-CHK merger or COP will take a piece of CHK similar to the last chunk taken out of CHK.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 8, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    Most people that reach the age of 78-79 have a life expectancy of 85. He is assuming that something material is going to happen in the next 5 years and he wants to see that. There is a great deal going on.
    Exports to Mexico via a major pipeline.
    Exports by ship to Asia and Europe.
    CHK is going to acquire and retire 10% of its shares.
    Most likely a lifting of the ban on oil exports.
    And while I thought Shell would make a major purchase for $25-30 billion and it would be CHK, it turned out to be a $70 billion acquisition this week, but not CHK. While I am disappointed, I am sure that Archie expects either a purchase of CHK or another sale of 5-6-7% of the assets for $5 billion.
    Archie knows one or all of these things are going to happen during the next 5 years and that his $18 per share purchase is going to go up 100% and he wants to enjoy one last ride.
    What is very interesting here is the COP just announced that they are unloading development and property around the world and want to concentrate on North American shale. Everyone on this board should realize that CHK has a target on its back and COP could be the next company that takes another piece of it.

  • Reply to

    ONGC to take over CHK

    by gwjones83 Apr 6, 2015 3:52 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 6, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    More likely they purchase some production and some of the land like the last transaction CHK did for $5 billion. I do not see a foreign buyer of the number two lease holder. India does not want a legal fight over this and the politicians in Oklahoma are not going to accept foreign buyers, let's get real here. Do you think the Senators in Oklahoma want Indian owners for one of the largest companies in the state.

    Maybe CVX buys CHK but no foreign buyer unless it is 7% of land holding and production for $5 billion. Also, that sale will not take place during a 5 year low in energy prices. First quarter of next year is a different story if oil is $10 higher and natural gas is $1 higher at that time. The three big shareholders and insiders are not going to sell when there product is selling near the 5 year low in the market price and 50% less than the average price for the commodities during the last 5 years.

    Let's get serious.

  • Reply to

    uncle carl has a buyout planned

    by glick06 Apr 3, 2015 9:49 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Apr 4, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Actually, a stock for stock merger allows BP, Total, CVX and other
    multinationals to buy the company, but I do not see the Board and three
    largest shareholders doing anything when oil and gas prices are at the low
    of the last five years. These guys that control the board are not stupid
    and will not sell the company at a bargain and they control 25% of
    the shares. They sold off a small piece of the company for $5 billion
    and could do the same thing again in 2016 when the market starts
    to firm. Guys like Icahn do not sell at the bottom of cycles, they hold
    through them. The posters on this board sell at the wrong times but
    not Icahn and Buffet or any of the other brilliant investors like them, they
    wait as they know what they have and stupidity is not in their DNA..

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 4, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    Do you really think the board and the people that control the board will sell the company during a bottom in energy prices? Those on this thread that think so need to start using the brains they were given. Not going to happen. The rich do not sell at the bottom. I suggest you study the rich investors in the U.S. Start with Buffett and Icahn and if you think they buy high and sell low rather than buy low and sell high you need to go back to school. Sorry, but the stupidity I see on this thread is annoying.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 4, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Comparing the current management, current board and major stockholders of the last
    two years with the control person: Chairman, CEO, major shareholder of 1990-2013 is
    like comparing apples to oranges. Saying they are the same and predicting the same
    is just foolish. The new control of this company dumped a piece of the company for
    $5 billion and they certainly can dump another small piece for another $5 billion to
    either a foreign company or foreign investor without the politicians going crazy.

    Open your imagination a little, there are plenty of investors or sovereign funds:
    Singapore, China, India, Saudi Arabia, Shell, Total, Eni, BP, CVX that could spend
    $5 billion and take a little chunk of the reserves. It happened in 2014 and expect
    it will happen again in 2016. When that transaction takes place and the proceeds
    pay off 50% of the debt on the balance sheet these share double within 90 days
    of that event as every ETF and mutual fund in the world runs into the shares.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Apr 4, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Do you think the three largest shareholders controlling 25% will sell in the 20's. They would not sell near the bottom of oil for the last five years as they are super wealthy and do not need to give away their shares.

    China will have 100 million more cars and trucks on the road in 4 years. Price of oil $80-90-100 by then. I am guessing that Boeing, Airbus and the other plane manufacturers have 10% more planes in the air in 5 years than today and demand and production of oil is in equilibrium. What was the average price of oil for the previous four years if you recall: $90-100. Last thing on the big shareholders of CHK, they would be better off selling 5-6-7% of production and land holdings for $5 billion than sell off the entire company. The hot shots that control the stock and board are better off with selling a small piece of the company during the next 12 months and paying off 50% of the debt on the balance sheet at that time.

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