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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

richardleeds 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2015 7:10 PM Member since: Apr 1, 1999
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  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 2, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    You hope the Saudi's can do the math. Kirby, wake up. Half of their population does not work or drive. The other half, males, really do not work according to friends that have worked in Saudi as consultants, including a V.P. for a utility. These are people that lived in tents with no indoor plumbing. It is a welfare state and two bombs have been exploded by terrorists over the last two weeks. The MIddle East is a mess and it is not going to get better, that means I am predicting more bombs in SA. If the Muslim terrorists can hit New York City and Boston, what do you think they will do to oil and gas targets in the MIddle East? These are not smart people, they hire foreigners to come into the country and do all critical jobs. Investors in oil and gas should expect more and more bombs and more and more war in the MIddle East. Half of the countries in that part of the world have been turned into rubble over the last 5-10 years.

  • Reply to

    Notice there is STILL no Volume!!!

    by wallpack123 Jun 3, 2015 12:56 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 3, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    the real problem is that management said they were going to use about $1 billion of the $5 billion sales proceeds to buy back shares. It looks like they never pulled the trigger which tells all investors the price was not right. That is a terrible message to give the street. At what price does management think the shares should be good value.

  • I read the press release this afternoon about natural gas production being put into storage and is now at 51% over the same time as last year and is at a 12 year high.
    I am afraid we are headed lower with the market being impacted by problems in Greece and Europe and Saudi Arabia trying to wipe out energy jobs in the U.S. and U.S. production.

  • Reply to

    Carl Ichan adds 7 million shares of CHK

    by lwbd2014 Jun 4, 2015 6:57 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 4, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    market is going lower and needs correction, CHK will go lower with the market
    and due to the storage of natural gas hitting a 12 year high today and being 51%
    over 2014. The price will go lower, but I do not understand why CHK does not
    buy any shares at this price (under $8.6 billion market capitalization). I guess
    management is telling us they will not buy shares until they are cheap enough.

  • Reply to

    Some very interesting numbers!

    by wallpack123 Jun 5, 2015 4:37 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 5, 2015 6:09 PM Flag

    Firm's like Goldman do this all the time. Hype a company and unload their shares after the recommendation. You should send your information to the SEC and they will slap their hands.
    It is really a sad state of affairs how the retail investor is constantly having their funds stolen
    by these firms.

  • Reply to

    Im buying more CHK Monday

    by lordigeorge Jun 7, 2015 8:23 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 7, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Ask yourself why CHK which received $5 billion for selling 7% of the company production and land has not purchased any shares with that money. If CHK is a bargain then the company should have purchased $1-2 billion of the stock with that money. They must think there are better buys out there than CHK.

  • Reply to

    Regarding 2015 LNG Export Capacity

    by deblanks Jun 11, 2015 10:50 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 11, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Every year between 2016 and 2020 which is you LNG production number, the U.S. will see growth in truck fleets, taxi fleets and buses, power plants and chemical plants using more natural gas than the amount expected for export in each of those years. When you combine exports to Mexico and Europe and Asia with the domestic switch from power plants burning coal and vehicle fleets buying natural gas for fuel you actual have double the amount of growth from that export number you are using.

    Natural gas is going to be $5 mcf in 2017 due to the export and domestic market. There will be a convergence in U.S. and international prices for natural gas less the costs to deliver the gas to foreign buyers.

  • Reply to

    Share Price Decrease

    by financekid299 May 1, 2015 10:20 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 11, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Actually, I believe states and the government will eventually not imprison people for distributing grass and that other sentences for drug dealing will decline instead of states taking on the cost to keep people incarcerated for 10-20-30 years. This does not happen in Europe where they put people away for 10-20-30 years. It is just too costly for states to sentence people for such long terms. California is already starting to lighten up on sentencing terms. The reality that we spend more money on each prisoner than we do on veterans, mentally ill and the destitute is starting to sink in with society and that the cost is too great.
    This reality has sunk in with stock brokers and others and while the market has been going up this equity has been going down because the growth rate of incarceration and sentencing is going to decrease and it has an impact on GEO.

  • Reply to

    Share Price Decrease

    by financekid299 May 1, 2015 10:20 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 11, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Actually interest rates will rise at some point but most experts think it is going to be gradual and not much of an increase which does not effect most unless they have 100% of their debt turning over in one year. Many loans are outstanding for 5-1--15 or more years. In fact companies that use bonds to finance which is many health care REITS actually get lower government subsidized bond financing and most bonds are for terms of 20 and 30 years. I am some health care reits that financed building with these long term bonds. The problem with the health care reits is that they have gone through too much appreciation over the last 5 years and many are overpriced.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 12, 2015 3:19 AM Flag

    The Chairman of CHK bought a million shares this year. He is hurting worse than the rest of us.
    He has an incentive. Do not worry.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 18, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    The board authorized management to buy $1 billlion in shares and they did not do it.
    If management does not buy shares to reduce the share count and they want to
    drill as that is a better choice for the cash flow, investors should take note.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 18, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    they would rather drill holes in the ground for energy that is selling at low prices, which is the opposite of the axiom of buy low and sell high, unfortunately when you sell your inventory at the lowest prices you make the least amount of profit

  • richardleeds by richardleeds Jun 18, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    I am wondering where the bottom is. It looks like Greece is going to exit the Euro which will crater stock markets for some time. If that actually happens I am thinking all markets will decline. Is it 5% or 10% or more? So where will CHK fall to if the DOW and S&P 500 fall 10% or more. I am thinking the total market cap of CHK could fall to $6 billion-7 billion and while this is happening Carl Icahn can acquire another billion dollars of CHK while everyone is jumping ship. Before we know it he could own 25% of the company.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 19, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    The problem for CPLP is that they are perceived as a Greek shipping company. Yes, management is in Greece in offices there, but the company is not Greek, the income is priced in dollar denominated leases for the ships. The loans are in dollars. So there is no real financial risk for the company. It is different for shareholders. If Greece is kicked out of the Euro block and defaults on all of its loans it effects the banks of Europe and the member countries. It clouds the future of the entire currency as Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are a financial mess. This could cause European stock markets to drop 10%-15%-20% and the U.S. markets could follow.

    This is going to lead to an opportunity to buy this equity at much lower prices, but not now. Wait for the s_ _ _ to hit the fan.

  • Reply to

    Do the math

    by p2ialias Jun 23, 2015 2:47 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 24, 2015 2:00 AM Flag

    There are two million cars running on natural gas in Argentina and another 2 million in Iran. I spent a month in Argentina and asked about the price to convert from gas to natural. The price in Argentina is $500-$1,000. The U.S. has road blocks to prevent people from adopting natural gas for cars. The EPA is in charge. They are the road block even though everyone knows natural gas is less polluting than gasoline or diesel.

  • There has been a bull market in stocks for the last 5 years and most reits has participated in that bull market with most of them up 100%. This reit is the same price today as it was 5 years ago. Investors in this equity are being taken to the cleaners by the management.

    Pretty silly to invest in this.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jun 24, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    I think you bought to early. Greece is a mess, the young people are without jobs and the retired people are seeing their pensions cut and more could be on the way.

    I see European and U.S. markets dropping in price after a 5 year run-up.
    If Greece is cut out of the European currency everything falls 5-10%. I would
    think that this equity to fall to the low of the last year which in $6 range. That would be a good buy in price.

  • Reply to

    GEO at 11 PE Ratio Looks Like Steal

    by t4two45 Jun 19, 2015 4:11 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jun 24, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    The stock market has had a 5 year run-up, it is ready for a correction and if the Euro block crumbles with Greece all stock markets will have the catalyst for a fall. This equity and all equities could fall 10%.

    Remember, this equity is up 100% over the last 5 years. I would expect a better opportunity for entry at 10% lower price. That could happen if FED raises interest rates in September.

  • Who would have thought this could drop to this number and if IRAN enters the oil market again imagine what happens. If Greece falls out of the Euro stock markets will take a dive and CHK could fall further.

    Last year 7% of the company acreage and production was sold for $5 billion. Now the entire company is close to that valuation. Shell or Exxon or Chevron or BP is probably going to buy up 5% of the shares in the open market and then make a merger offer for the rest of the company and walk away with a 100% premium. These companies could make the purchase for stock and not take on any debt other than CHK's.

  • Every investment I have seen 99% of them, when they yield this must they eventually
    cut the distribution. When that happens the equity price drops like a rock. Why is
    that not going to be the case here?

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