Current debt is around $12 Billion.
Deep water rig count from 2008 to 2013 grew from 103 to 239 platforms.
From 2014-2016 this rig count is going to grow another 25%.
SDRL is going to take on almost $6 billion more in debt as it
pays for its platform deliveries in 2014, 2015, 2016.
There is going to be tremendous price pressure and utilization that
will effect all drilling companies with these platforms and the sector
moves up or down together.
Also, the FED is going to start raising interest rates over the next
three years and a change in the FED course always impacts the
entire stock market.
The stock market has been on a 5 year bull market run, these runs
always correct. When it does everything falls 10-20%, look at the
market history on corrections.
remember, the lowest interest rates in our lifetime have been during the last 5 years. The FED is going to change that in 12 months. Also, the largest number of new rigs manufactured in the last 15 years is going to hit the market in 2015. Both of these factors are going to impact the market, especially the interest rate reversal. Could the market take a hit of 10% or more when the FED changes course. Easy in my opinion.
Could SDRL hit the same low of 2010, sure, that was $19.
market has been inflated by 0-1/4% interest rates on 1 year money.
This has been the case for the last 5 years. Interest rates are going
to go up in 12 months and probably continue to go up. Once that
happens the market will really correct, so I would not be surprised if
everything drops 10%-20% once the FED changes course. Add the
largest number of rigs coming into the market over the last decade
during the next two years and then throw in a course adjustment by
the FED and you have a recipe for another hit to SDRL. One of of us
is going to be correct.
SDRL hit $19.00 per share during the summer of 2010.
If rigs coming into the market in 2015 and 2016 are going
to create price pressure and utilization issues why would
the price of the equity not test previous lows during this 5 year
Another company is not going to want to acquire a bunch of assets where they are minority real estate interests and that is the problem with Copper Beach and the two towers. Any buyer from CCG would not be in the driver seat and would only be a passive, minority interests owner.
I suspect this will go lower in price as interest rates in North America that peg their loans increase in price-rates over the next few years.
This management paid $250 million for the 48% interest in Copper Beach. What acquirer would spend a quarter of a billion dollars for a minority interest in real estate, something they do not control.
Also, management invested in a 33% interest in two high rises that cost almost $200 million.
No one is going to want to purchase this can of worms.
IN a recent Univ. of Maine college newspaper article CCG was castigated for its poor management of a complex at the University.
Beside Louisville they are having trouble with Maine apartments. Management does not have its act together and investing with them is a mistake.
Here is the article from the campus newspaper:
Grove residents, owners need to exercise personal responsibility
Posted on Sept. 14, 2014, at 3:46 p.m.
Tell us what you think!
Send a letter to the editor about this or any other article in The Maine Campus.
College is a time of life associated with independence. Students, usually for the first time, live free from the eagle-eye of a parent or guardian. For many, this results in a very lax attitude, which emphasizes corporeal gratification: partying, drinking, etc.
But personal responsibility is endemic to independence. While lifestyle choices are an individual prerogative, they cease to become so when the safety of others is affected.
Last weekend’s Grove fiasco, which resulted in the injury of several police officers, represents exactly the kind of extreme selfish indulgence students need to avoid.
While officers were responding to a 300-person gathering at the Grove, a drunk driver totaled two parked cars in Orono. While it’s impossible to say for certain whether the damage and inconvenience could have been prevented if law enforcement weren’t called to the housing complex, it is possible.
Fortunately, the driver stopped of her own volition, but imagine if she hadn’t: the cost, monetary and otherwise, could have been significantly higher.
True, organs of the law should not act prematurely, identifying likely sources of criminal action and neutralizing them before damage occurs, but once trouble arises, their primary job is to mitigate criminal damages. Genuine emergencies, not angry college students who perceive authority as a hostile, buzz-killing entity, need to be the priority of police and fire.
It’s easy to forget that police and fire are publicly funded resources and, like any governmental body...
I wanted to make an investment in CCG but I have not done so during the last 9 months as I have watched management mistake after management mistake. Why they took on Copper Beach and the high rise buildings and now the bad publicity of allowing students to move into an unfinished building demonstrates to me that under current management this equity has lost the confidence of investors and analysts.
Until management shows that they are executing and not making investments that do not work out, I do not want to put my money with them. To me all they have done is hurt investors by executing poorly and most investors seem to have lost money on this.
I would like to see the board bring in a new CEO but that does not appear likely.
If the two towers do not make positive cash flow I believe that will hurt the equity price further. Now, if the towers rent up and contribute to cash flow that could increase the dividend, then I might step in, but so far I do not see how the Copper Beach portfolio or the two towers are going to appreciate.
Look at all the management risks taken:
They own 48% investment in a large acquisition which gives them no control over the real estate. How do you sell a minority stake in real estate, therefore, I see no appreciation potential in this acquisition that they hold.
They also purchased an interest in two high rise towers that are vacant and they are redeveloping them as high end student housing. 100% vacancy that will be negative news each quarter if they do not fill it.
While most equities have climbed significantly during the last 4 year bull market in the reit sector this equity has gone down.
No real growth in the dividend over the last 4 years.
The equity price is all about poor management and is reflected in the price of the equity.
The posters on this board base their investment decisions on how cheap the equity is and they miss the big picture, there is a reason an equity drops in value while all other reits are climbing in 2014.
What investor wants to buy their 42% interest in a group of real estate assets they do not control.
That acquisition is dead in terms of appreciation.
Then they have two high rise towers that are empty and they are converting them into high end
student housing. That's funny, young people seeking education with money to burn on expensive
living space. The $200 million in two towers could really provide a bunch of quarterly news that is
negative which would drive down the price of the equity much further.
Why is a company a good buying opportunity when management is mediocre and has made mistake after mistake and has taken on too much risk investing in two towers that cost $200 million and they have them empty as they convert them to student housing?
A cheap stock is not a buying opportunity if management is executing poorly and taking risks on developing product (high rise tower conversions) that they have never done before.
Every month this year this has been a "buying opportunity" as the price keeps going lower.
No analysts recommend CCG and there is a reason for that.
The high rises are vacant and they are going to be very expensive student housing, how is that going to go over with students that are financing an education and buying expensive textbooks?
Poor management that has watched the stock reach 4 year lows is not a buying opportunity!!!
I previously said management is poor:
1) took a crazy risk investing in converting two high rise towers into high end student housing
2) Invested 48% (no control) in Copper Beach intending to buy all of it and did not like what they
saw after buying almost half. The problem is that they have the 52% owners running the company
and those people really wanted to sell out to CCG
3) no real growth in dividend in four years and equity price is at low of the last four years while most
stock indexes reached highs for the last four years
4) no analysts recommend the equity
stock has really held up because it did not increase in value during the last 4 years of the bull market. Yes, it is nice to receive the distribution, but shareholders would have been better receiving the 5% dividend in AT&T (T) along with its 5-6-7% appreciation each year.
Almost double the return of CMLP. Same kind of return for those that were in Chevron or BP for the last 4 years, double the return received by CMLP investors.
Frankly, this has been the wrong investment for those that searched out other alternatives.
Thank goodness I invested in Linn Energy at $18 four years ago. Now $30 along with a 9% distribution each year.
not going to dump the management as the insiders appointed the board of directors....shareholders are frankly in trouble.
Big article in the L.A. Times newspaper last week that gasoline
prices in the new year are going to drop 10% from current levels and this will hurt all domestic producers.
Canadian oil sells for about 5% less than U.S. oil and U.S. oil is falling in price.
Big article in the L.A. Times last week said that U.S. gasoline prices will fall in
the next year to lowest prices in 5 years.
Too much oil and not enough demand world-wide at this time. If gasoline
prices fall another 10% as predicted in the article all energy producers in
North America will feel the pain.
This equity could fall to $4 and I am already down big time.
The board of directors was appointed by the CEO so it is not going to help
Hopefully all the bad news is out.
It is not about bad news, it is about a surplus of rigs
being delivered to the competition in 2015 and 2016.
What happened when there was a surplus of coal
or natural gas? The companies in the sector took a
That is going to happen with the drillers as they will all
have new rigs and will be looking for business. This
is going to drive down utilization rates and contract
rates for rigs.
Not worth owning for the dividend as the decline in
price will result as each 90 days companies in the sector
talk about declines in rates and utilization.
Most investors that have purchased in 2014 or do so in 2015 is
not going to make any money.
The problem with this reit is that the price of the equity is almost back to where it was 4 years ago, so no appreciation, just the distribution. Better to invest for 5%-7% distribution and growth in the equity of 5% or more each year and there are many of those.
O, ARCP, CSG, etc.
Every investment connected to oil has been down as the price of oil dropped 10% during the quarter. The problem with CMLP is that the share price has not really climbed at all during the bull market that has taken the indexes to all time highs during the last 4 years. No real equity appreciation while most all the MLPs are up significantly over the last 4 years.