Prognosis for the decline in drilling for 2015 is back where it was five years ago. Five years ago
shares were at $30, so why is NOV not headed to $30 again as they report inferior results for
each quarter during this year? Quarterly results are going to lousy each 90 days.
I looked at the latest drilling results. Not good. Why drill into ground that is denser than other places on earth. Management said the drilling equipment (specifically the drill bits) were taking a beating.
I believe this goes lower during the first and second quarter of 2015. Without the hype of a newsletter these shares would have had much less investor interest.
Yes, but you did not remember that a month ago the board of CHK approved the purchase of $1B in shares. A 939000 share purchase is only around $20 million by the buyer. CHK would have to buy around 1 million shares a day for two months to buy in the amount approved by the board.
CEO of BP oil spoke last night on Bloomberg and he sees $50 oil for next three years as there is too much production. He said Russia and Middle East has actually increased production in recent months and their are major amounts of oil in storage and on ships. Also he said efficiencies in the U.S. have kept production higher and we would see more production in U.S. in 2015 than 2014 for the first six months of the year. This CEO was brought in to clean up BP.
My concern is that Iran makes a deal on its nuclear program and the Western countries remove sanctions which means that Iran adds 1 million more barrels to world oil supplies per day. This factor and Russia's need for currency could up production 1-2 million barrels per day.
Russian is run and owned by a group of crooks-thugs. Better to invest in some other country rather than one where the richest man in the country is a politician named Putin and everyone gives him a cut or he takes away their toys (company) and throws them in prison.
I purchased 4,000 units of BBEP last week at $5.50. Yes, they are up big time since
then. Today, six of my energy holdings jumped $1-2 each. The only holding that did
not move significantly was Linn Energy which was disappointing.
Linn's problem is three-fold: too much debt and not addressed by management,
CFO sold half his units this month and price of gas is near $2.50 and oil is $50, way
Analysts and investors seem to answer that question for us. Crestwood has gone nowhere while KMI and ETP and others have appreciated 100% over the last 4-5 years. The top five pipeline MLPs have grown income and distributions significantly and share price has escalated while CMLP has done a mediocre job. Perhaps CMLPs assets and customers are not top tier assets, locations, etc. The market for an equity is driven by investor demand. Look at Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Western Digital over the last 5 years and compare that with vs. Microsoft, IBM, T, etc. Investors drive up some companies in price by demand, demand by retail investors and ETFs and Mutual Funds for the shares. Other companies do not have demand by investors to own it. It is pretty simple I think. Demand runs to the best performers and price increases result as long as the company continues to achieve.
An article published by a Mr. Walsh implies that Linn Energy is a Ponzi type scheme.
Mr. Walsh admits he is a short and is trying to drive the equity down in price so his
article is nothing more than an attempt to manipulate investors to dump the equity and
drive the price down. He basically claims the equity is worth nothing.
During the last few days the head of OPEC said he expects oil prices to reach $200
per barrel in the next year. His premise is the cuts in billions and billions of energy
expenditures is going to create an opposite reaction to the present pricing. I believe
he knows what he is talking about or he would not be the executive spokesperson for
What will $100 or $150 or $200 per barrel oil do to oil companies? Probably similar to
the 50% drop that a decline of $50 has caused. I personally have an idea what happens
to equity prices if oil goes from $50 a barrel to $200 a barrel.
As for my original investments in Linn Energy at $16-18 per unit many years ago, I have
received almost that amount in distributions, so I have nothing at risk. Mr. Walsh the short
writing in Seeking Alpha does not seem to understand that reality as he attempts to value
Linn Energy at the bottom of an energy cycle rather than where it is going to end.
You are correct. There has been no real appreciation only declines here.
The winners in the energy space over the last 5 years are the pipes. They have
returned 15%-20% per year with the yield and appreciation, outperforming CMLP
by 10%-15%-20% per year. I expect this will be true for the next 5 years.
ETP at 6.5% yield is a steal. Collect that yield for the next 5 years and also
watch the units double in price over the next 5-6 years.
You hit the nail on the head. The mid-stream MLPs have seen unit appreciation over the last five years with yield and appreciation at close to 15-20% per year while CMLP has done nothing over the same time period.
You are correct, the dividend is 3%. Investors would be better off buying ATT (T) which has a yield
close to 6%. Also, ATT was announced as the big winner for $18 billion of new
spectrum auctioned by the U.S. government this month. In addition it is purchasing DTV which
is the biggest operator of satellites in North America and South America. There
are close to 500 million people in Central America and South America where DTV
Canadian Oil Sands share price is not going anywhere during the next year as the
dividend is going to be around 3% per year. ATT (T) is one of the best purchases
you can make for the dividend. Look at its dividend and appreciation over the last
decade and it is positioning itself to get into Latin America market with its purchase of DTV.
Another good dividend play at close to 6% is ETP.
Good luck investors.
Putin was basically selected by the previous regime to protect their graft in stealing the economy and giving all major economic entities to their friends, now known as oligarchs. There are many articles and books out their indicating that Putin is probably one of the 5 richest people in the world due to his take or cut in the oligarchs take. If you do not pay him you end up in prison and your company is taken away from you. The problem with Putin is he is basically the biggest thief in the world and yes the people of Russia stupidly support him with 80% approval ratings, so they are basically anti-west.
Since Gazprom just announced that earnings fell by over 60%, and Russia is in the process of rebuilding its land empire, we should expect that investors will find better companies to invest in than one controlled by Putin and his cronies.
Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have said they will not reduce production and U.S. production has been climbing every month without a drop. This will probably #$%$ for about six months. The U.S. producers will be in trouble as I believe Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States do not have any significant debt from the West so their balance sheets are probably pretty low in debt whereas most U.S. producers have billions and billions in debt.
I think you made a good move. Lenders are owed $1 billion and they do not want to hire lawyers to deal with this in a court so I think they work on giving an extension of time to correct any breach in the loan documents.
First, I am long Lightstream and a lot of shares.
I spoke with both the I.R. and the President of the company.
I suggested to both of them that they buy shares at sub $1 per share.
I suggested they cut drilling and use the funds to buy shares.
The response I received is that they needed to drill to cover debt
payments, capex and overhead.
In essence I see them drilling their reserves and selling them in
the $40's during 2015 which takes twice as much energy out of the ground
for the same dollars as in 2014.
The share price would indicate that they do not survive this and people
are dumping to get whatever they can get.
I am holding as I am down a great deal of money but so is the CEO.
I am sure the CEO is trying to find a buyer even though he is not able to
discuss that with the public. The problem is that this is the worst time
to unload the company. I mentioned to management that any hedge fund
could buy up 10% of the shares for pennies at this time without having to
disclose this and then when filing the holding could buy the company for
a song if no competing bids take place. With the price closing in around
50 cents, the company would be lucky to see $2 bucks a share from a
buyer. You just do not see buyers paying 100% over the market price for
shares in acquisitions. At least I do not recall anyone paying 100% over
market for a purchase.
Sad state of affairs.
ECA projections are based upon $70 oil and $4 gas.
Oil is priced under $50 and natural gas is priced under $3.
ECA is going to miss projections in a significant way which would indicate that
their share price has much further to fall.
Oil and gas production for the first month in North America has not fallen and
most commentators are saying that the drop in rig count might not have any
effect for the first half of the year or even longer.
Will investors see an opportunity to buy these shares at close to $10? If so
load up, but until then, dump shares and buy back at lower prices.
he has no faith in the recovery of Linn Energy or he would not have dumped at the low price of the last 5 years, that should be all investors need to know at this point in time. If he had thought the units or shares were a good buy he would have been buying, but his job is to know the numbers on a weekly and monthly basis of what is happening. Suggest you any other other investors do what the CFO is telling investors to do.
the only reason these shares went to $7 is that they were going to develop a gold mine which the federal government denied permits for. This company is only marginally profitable and produces one product in significant quantities and that is copper which at current prices is not really profitable for them as costs and price are about the same. So reserves are being sold at near cost.
There is no real reason to own a mining company as none of them have performed in recent years as the stock market indexes have climbed up and up around the world.
Even China which has built too many residential highrise towers all over the country is slowing down. In fact in a report this week China's growth for 2015 is declining to a level not seen since 1990, that is 25 years.
Students really do not make much money working part time and most parents have limited budgets so student housing has to stay competitive with private apartments and dorms and those are not really raising prices much. This is why public storage has gone up 100% in price over the last four years while this student housing reit has gone down for four straight year.