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Global Partners LP Message Board

richardleeds 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2016 2:43 AM Member since: Apr 1, 1999
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  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 9, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    I do not think Brad Thomas is the issue regarding OHI and GEN. Nine out of ten stocks around the world have been going down. In the U.S. the market actually went up for five years and markets do not run forever. U.S. markets can easily continue to be in a bear market for 2016 and we could see another 10% or more decline. IMO

  • richardleeds richardleeds Dec 4, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Most investors are missing the big picture. T has acquired a very large footprint in Mexico and South America during the last 12 months. This region has 500 million people. Sprint and T Mobile are basically in a very crowded North American market.of 300 million people. T has a lot of product offerings. In the future cameras will be everywhere, homes and businesses which will protect the owners of the property as police budgets decline because of cost. It will be incumbent on owners of homes and properties to have their own surveillance and this will tie in to ATT-DTV's business. I am amazed at all the surveillance cameras being offered by most retailers including COSTCO and Walmart. This product will grow as day/night monitors drop in price and that data is accessed by cell phones and tablets when people are away from their property. All of these devices are going to transmit via cell phone. In addition more and more young people use their phones to watch video. These are major growth areas for the future and ATT has a huge market with recent acquistions.

  • Reply to

    I SORRY but please explain

    by mike_masin Dec 4, 2015 11:10 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Dec 5, 2015 1:56 AM Flag

    Mike,

    Carl, the CEO, the chairman of the board are all in this at $20-30 per share. I'm talking millions to hundreds of millions or a billion dollars worth of stock.
    Look, oil goes in cycles. 2016 will be tough but the world is going to need 5-6-7 million barrels a more oil per day by 2020. Remember, aviation is going to double in demand and the population is growing by one billion people every 12 years. This is a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, these cycles happen.

    The price here is getting very interesting. When you see a $3 billion market cap, Chevron or BP or COP will by the entire company for $10 billion or so. The land position is huge and will be drilled over the next 20 years so those companies do not mind waiting 2-3 years for oil and gas prices to correct again.

  • It makes no sense to pay out a 10% yield and pay out cash that could be used for growth acquisitions.
    No company should every pay out 10% as there are better choices: expansion, acquisitions and pay down the debt. Those are the smart choices. There is no reward for the company by paying this level of dividends. Not if, but when they cut the dividend they will build confidence in Wall Street investors to return, but the problem is that the share price will dive when the dividend is eventually cut, that would be the time to enter and purchase the equity or the bonds. But then what do I know, I purchased CHK at $21, $18, $15 and it is now at $5.

  • The story here is that shareholders and employees are not well served by this turnover.
    I think the units are still overpriced and are going lower.
    Until management clarifies what has been going on and why the shake up there is a credibility issue.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 2, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    next quarter this is going much lower as results will be much worse than this last one. Yeah, CEO keeps talking about being profitable at $60 oil when oil is around $30. This is going to be ugly. Why own the shares as they go down each quarter more than the 2.5% dividend. Should cancel the dividend and buy back shares and pay down debt.

    I would not be surprised if the shares do not decline another 10% by the time he goes on tv again after the first quarter. Then when the next quarter news comes out this falls another 10% that week.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Dec 7, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Looks like Saudis are trying to bankrupt Russia. Will Russia do nothing? So far Putin has been taking it. Unfortunately many U.S. and Canadian oil/gas companies are being wiped out too. Saudis took down the two twin towers in NYC and use the U.S. military as their protectors. We are suckers.

  • With the drop in fleet utilization to 80% and 2016 two weeks away and 120 million shares outstanding and commitments to buy 6 more ships during 2016 and 2017 where is the money going to come from for the dividends and ships? Buying ships when the shares are at 5 year lows? I smell a dividend cut by end of second quarter 2016 unless fleet utilization jumps quickly. In fact the dividend should be cut to help pay for ships. Does anyone know of any business that pays out over 10% and does not cut its dividend in recent years.

  • If that happens NMM equity will crater.
    Neither company has any cash of any significance, that is when things go wrong.

  • Reply to

    Looking at some history

    by richmike775 Jan 11, 2016 11:37 AM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jan 11, 2016 5:29 PM Flag

    Company was on a buying spree taking on quite a a lot of debt during previous years. Those ventures did not increase distributions. So what was all the debt accomplishing?

  • Reply to

    Why heading opposite direction of other refiners

    by bayousaint58 Dec 16, 2015 12:37 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Dec 17, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    WTI and Brent are going to be in equilibrium when Congress allows oil to be exported. This will result in lower refinery margins as buying oil in different locations has no wider spreads. In addition the company has been taking on more debt, more equity issues over the last three years for rapid expansion. The expansion was to increase profits and by implication distributions but the cash flow and increase in profits have not been realized yet. Finally, any distribution in excess of 10% usually results in a cut in the distribution. Investors should look at every business that has ever had a 10% distribution and ask themselves what has happened to that distribution. 90%+ of the companies that I have followed over the last decade with a distribution in excess of 10% have eventually cratered in price as distribution cuts are implemented.

  • Reply to

    From the GS Presentation

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 6, 2016 4:15 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jan 7, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    No one has an idea what the new management is going to do. The CEO might have to get rid of the under-performing segments of the business and that might mean taking a charge for any loss on the sale of the assets and the writing off of any goodwill.

    Also China is in trouble with its stock market in free fall. This will have an impact on all markets. I think the shares of CLMT can easily drop to $15. Only time will tell. I want to see what the new management is going to do. Obviously you bring in new management when something needs to be straightened out.

  • Projects to be funded require cash and there is no opportunity to use common stock.
    Plenty of stock is going to be sold this month to harvest losses.
    Company is not going to be able to issue debt unless they pay high interest and why would anyone agree to loan to this company.when the additional debt would be junk debt?
    Earnings will fall as companies with fixed contracts are going to have to go into reorganization as prices of energy stay low in 2016.

  • BP had terrible results and listening to the CEO last night for about 10-15 minutes it sure sounds
    that it will be much worse this March 31. He kept talking about how they could be profitable around $60 a barrel. The problem is that he kept saying that and the interviewer kept saying oil was at $30+.

    This is going to get very ugly over the next one or two quarters. It is bad now. If earnings dropped 90% they are not going to have earnings next quarter, only a loss in my opinion. CEO said he would not cut dividend. As this gets worse he would be crazy to pay out money at 10% rate when he should take money and buy up shares or pay down debt.

    Crazy.

    Wonder how low this is going?

  • richardleeds richardleeds Feb 10, 2016 8:15 PM Flag

    I did not say that health care REITS depending on government revenue do not face issues. Obviously private pay health care reits are different from those depending on government funds and government audits and oversight.

  • Reply to

    KMI message clear.....please read

    by dossolasr Dec 4, 2015 12:41 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Dec 4, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    Projects are going to be cancelled by almost all pipeline companies as E&P companies are not making money with oil and gas prices at $40 and $2 gas and these prices are going to be with us for another year as Iran enters the market with more supplies and Russia keeps pumping as Russia has to pay its bills and energy is half of their economy. A big problem. KMI and others will say that conditions are deteriorating as energy prices go lower and they need to fund build out. JUST WATCH as oil goes below $40 and natural gas drops below $2.

  • Reply to

    KMI message clear.....please read

    by dossolasr Dec 4, 2015 12:41 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Dec 5, 2015 1:37 AM Flag

    So what happens when their contracts with E&P companies are not paid as those E&P's become cash flow negative and are unable to make money as Iran enters the energy market in 2016.

  • richardleeds richardleeds Jan 5, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    China was in the market big time in the last half of 2015 even though industrial production (exports) was down and its stock market is telling us that this is going to be a bad year in 2016 for them. This probably equates to less energy demand in 2016 and they did hoard oil in 2015 buying the commodity cheap.

    If production in China is down and growth is down in China then demand for energy will be down. That is having an impact as China is the biggest importer of commodities in the world.

    I expect companies shipping oil will have a tough year again in 2016. My prediction is that they fall another 10%. Many are predicting that the overall market could have a tough year, correcting down.

  • The shares are in free fall and we still have another three weeks of tax loss selling.
    Investors have no idea how they will pay for expansion and capex as they always issued equity.
    They need to suspend the dividend for 12 months and come out say that the one time suspension
    will pay for the 2016 capex and the energy market cycle should return to normal by 2017.
    Cut the dividend and shares drop, do not cut the dividend and the shares drop as there is tons
    of debt, current and future and interest rates will be higher in the next 5 years than the previous
    5 years. All bad news for KMI.

  • Reply to

    From the GS Presentation

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 6, 2016 4:15 PM
    richardleeds richardleeds Jan 11, 2016 5:35 PM Flag

    the distribution is not going to help investors that see a 10% decline in energy investments during January and February. Management should have addressed the actual reasoning behind a management change and what they expect to be accomplished rather than letting investors flounder with a lack of direction.

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