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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 5:05 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • richoncat by richoncat Apr 23, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    Ouch. That was ugly. "Ladies and gentlemen, Q1 was the highlight of 2015 and it's going to get worse from here." $80 has been a pretty solid floor under this stock for several years. So I don't see much downside risk from here. But CAT isn't forecasting any improvement for the foreseeable future. Sounds like dead money for the next couple years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Apr 17, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    The IGNORE button is a good place to start.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Closing/Opening Stock Price

    by colligan27 Apr 16, 2015 9:24 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 16, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I guess your not aware of the term ex-dividend? You think that just maybe that $.70/sh is exactly the value of their quarterly dividend? CAT went ex-dividend today. So yesterday it was trading with the value of the dividend included in the price, today it trades with the dividend excluded. Happens every 3 months. Duh.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ex Div is Thurs.

    by fstout57 Apr 13, 2015 11:06 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 13, 2015 10:12 PM Flag

    Long term, this company is solid. I disagree with a lot of their sourcing decisions. Seems they're chasing accounting dollars and not paying attention to lead times and quality. They'll pay a price for that but those decisions can be fixed when they surface. It's only a matter of time until commodity demand and prices recover. Hopefully the factories and supply chain will be ready when it happens. If they've cut back too far, it'll be tough to change direction and accelerate. If they stay biased toward recovery they'll be fine.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ex Div is Thurs.

    by fstout57 Apr 13, 2015 11:06 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 13, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    I'm probably the last guy you want to ask that question. I've been a perm-bull for years and called for a big run up after the last recession. Unfortunately I've been plenty wrong. I worked for and followed CAT stock for 37 years. After every major recession CAT came barreling back with a huge gain. However, the timing of the continuing European recession and its affect on China has been unprecedented. The US is doing it's share of the heavy pulling but Europe continues to suffer. Until we see Europe and China recover, it's going to be tough sledding for CAT. They've positioned the company on the mining and energy side of the business. Until those segments start to see demand pick up, construction equipment is going to have to carry them. Lots of competitors and slimmer margins in that segment. I think if you have a long term investing horizon 5 -7 years I'd be accumulating at this level. But short term it's a tough call.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Ex Div is Thurs.

    by fstout57 Apr 13, 2015 11:06 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 13, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    I don't think that is true. You must own the stock on the record date. That is the day that the companies compiles the list of shareholders that will get the dividend. The record date is 2 days after the ex-date, excluding weekends and holidays. So if you purchase the stock before the close of trading on the day before the ex-date, Wednesday April 15th, you will be the owner of record on the record date and will be entitled to the dividend. In this case the ex-date is Thursday April 16th, the record date is Monday April 21st and the payment date is May 20th.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat Mar 25, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Bad news meant bad news today. That's pretty straight forward. A week ago bad news meant the Fed would hold off raising rates and that was good news. Today, bad news means earnings might me soft in Q1 and that's bad news. I guess you need a playbook to know when good news is good, good news is bad, bad news is good and bad news is bad. Maybe I'll move it all to Toothy's hedge fund and quit worrying about it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Toothy, we need you. You've been very successful chasing away most of the posters on this board. It appears we've been assaulted by several nuts from the GGN board. Please work your magic and make them go away. Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat Mar 18, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Absolutely nothing has changed. The FED has said the same thing for months and the market gets all nervous over the potential of raising rates by what a 1/4 point? Now they remove one friggin' word, patient, but reaffirms that future rate increases will be very slow and the market gets all giddy. Go figure. Anybody that wonders if this economy is picking up needs to go to Vegas. There are thousands of everyday people spending like mad. Stuffing slot machines, stuffing their faces, drinking like fish, buying stuff they probably don't need. Maybe they took out a second mortgage to go play but I doubt it. It's full steam ahead out there.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 13, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    CAT manufactures product in every major currency country in the world. Other than the largest mining equipment, which isn't selling well right now anyway, everything else they make is sourced in several locations around the world. There will be issues translating sales and profits back to US dollars, but from a competitive perspective CAT will lose very little business due to the strong dollar. Anybody that is aware of CAT's business model knows active field population is everything. It's what feeds the parts business which is where CAT's profit is made. They will not lose sales due to currency moves up or down.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Caterpillar Insurance in Nashville = bad apple

    by jmiller4425 Feb 20, 2015 6:21 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 13, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    "... the quality of which may be risky." So do you know it's risky? Is it more risky now than it's been for the last 30 years? We have plenty of history to rely on. Relatively low default and repossession rates. Record revenues and profits. Ever expanding range of services from financing to extended warranties and insurance. If it were a bank, one would say their assets were growing. Doesn't a bank do exactly the same thing? They "borrow" from depositors at one rate and "lend" to customers at a higher rate, pocketing the margin. What's different about CAT Financial, other than they borrow from the bond market and you just don't like them?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When Good News is Bad News

    by richoncat Mar 6, 2015 4:52 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 13, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    It's so good to be loved.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When Good News is Bad News

    by richoncat Mar 6, 2015 4:52 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 10, 2015 10:53 PM Flag

    Hey it's good to hear from an old idiot. Welcome back! How's the economy of York PA doing?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    question

    by tsjdiet Mar 8, 2015 5:55 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 9, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    The Dow Industrials is a price weighted index meaning that the proportion of the index that each of the underlying stocks has is equal to the price of those stocks. So to the extent that AAPL is trading at roughly 4 times that of AT&T the stock it is replacing, there should be 4 times as many shares as there was of AT&T. Also since CAT was trading higher than AT&T but lower than AAPL there should be a change in the proportion of the index that is defined by CAT. My guess, not much but it will happen. There was an Market Watch news article yesterday at 8:44 AM, "AAPL to Join the Dow, Why it Doesn't Matter", about the lack of relevance of the Dow index because it is a price weighted index. Go to the T board and read the news article posted yesterday AM.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I just don't understand market psychology. The Fed has been in an ultra accommodating mode for many years because the economy was on the verge of complete failure in 2008 and it's taken 7 years to nurse it back to life. Admittedly the recovery has been weak by historical standards but we're finally seeing sustained positive employment and the Fed is contemplating moving rates back toward normal levels. They've been telegraphing this move for months. They've said it would be based on economic data as it becomes available. Pretty much completely transparent. So this AM we get pretty good news on February employment. As a result the Dow plunges almost 300 points presumably because the market now fears that the Fed will start raising rates. We're at least 4% worth of increases before we're at par. Huh? Doesn't the market do well when the economy is healthy? Aren't we better off with a self sustaining economy than one that is limping along with the help of QE^n and a 0% discount rate. But we finally are getting solid confirmation that things are improving and we get a 300 point thrashing. I didn't understand it 14 years ago coming out the 2001 recession and I don't understand it now. I say take advantage of a pullback like this as it's bound to recover once sanity returns.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    More Strange But True

    by brumar_lv Mar 3, 2015 4:02 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 5, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    BTW he doesn't set his own salary. There is an executive compensation committee on the Board of Directors that sets executive salaries. Now you'll just say it's an old boy network and he controls it all. Save your breath. Effective Boards are really tough on CEOs. JPM is no different. Most of the lending issues at JPM are a result of the loans made by the companies JPM salvaged during the financial crisis. The FED begged them to take the failing companies over and then our government thanked them for their service by slapping them with huge fines and hassle. If I were Diamond I'd tell the government to stick it the next time they ask him to help. #$%$. very much.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 5, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Hello? Anybody home? CAT has said six months ago that continued weakness in Mining and the recent drop in oil prices would weigh heavily on their results. Did Cramer just start listening? Duh. Did it take little fish Joy Global to get his attention? Unbelievable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Headquarters Building

    by richoncat Feb 21, 2015 7:25 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 5, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    I think you need to study BRK before you embarrass yourself even more. BRK has 340,000 employees. They own and manage a myriad of companies. From GEICO, BNSF, Lubrizol, Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom, Helzberg Diamonds, FlightSafety International, NetJets, plus half of Heinz and an undisclosed percentage of Mars, Incorporated, among others. Nine of their whole owned companies would be in the Fortune 500 if they were independent businesses. Stock holding aside they are a major employer. My question is how can they manage all that with only 25 people in HQ in Omaha? Why does CAT needs millions of square feet of office space to manage 1/3 as many employees? Does it make sense? It comes down to organizational strategy. My take is centralized organizations are very inefficient. Employees and managers relate more to their own budgets and headcount than to the success of the businesses they support. The bureaucracy becomes a lifeless morass. I say let the businesses run themselves closer to the point of attack. Generals in the rear area seldom win front line battles. Clearly decentralization has been a successful strategy at Solar and BCP. Ed Rapp told GO, leave us alone and we'll be successful. He was absolutely right.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Caterpillar Insurance in Nashville = bad apple

    by jmiller4425 Feb 20, 2015 6:21 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 5, 2015 7:21 AM Flag

    Perhaps you'd like to add some detail to your accusations. Exactly what is the "situation" you claim they've created? From where I sit, they routinely return a nice profit to the company taking advantage of the spread between their cost of money and the rate at which they lend. Nothing much different than a bank. What's the rub? Seems like you've got an ax to grind.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Limit buy CAT

    by ownever Mar 1, 2015 4:59 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 4, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    Told you $82 was possible. Only took a couple days. No surprise.

    Sentiment: Hold

CAT
86.1499-1.7701(-2.01%)10:37 AMEDT