I agree with your analysis if you think their business will never recover. Stocks are priced with future expectations factor in. CAT's multiple always expands towards the end of a recession. Investors are betting on a rebound. That's exactly what we're seeing now. Will it happen? The stock price says yes.
Worked there for 35 years. I've done my homework. CAT's debt is not a problem. Weak end markets are CAT's problem. It's been the same story for nearly a hundred years. CAT is a cyclical company. They kick butt during periods of strong growth and hunker down during softness. Their balance sheet is very strong. Cost reduction is the theme of the day. This too shall pass.
CAT Financial has weather many recessions in their 30+ year history. Never lost money on an annual basis. The equipment is the collateral, it has value. Take it back and sell it again. Not a problem. Do your research and you'll see it is a wonderful business.
So the Fed is working to normalize (raise) interest rates over the next couple years from their extraordinarily low levels. 0-.25%. That is somehow corrupt and intended to preserve jobs? What universe are you living on?
Well here we go again. If you understood how options are exercised you'd understand the insider trading numbers. The long and short of it is Doug exercised his remaining 50,884 options granted in 2007 at $63.04. The cost to him to exercise these options was 50884x$63.04=$3,207,727. To cover this cost plus the tax expense of the gain, he sold 48,082 shares at $75.79 in the open market for $3,644,134. He pockets the remaining shares 50884-48082=2802 at a value of $210,015 at todays price. Really not a great windfall.