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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 154 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 3:18 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Has anybody else seen this movie before???

    by jpmadoff Apr 4, 2014 1:44 PM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 5, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    Toothy at least try to get my quote right. As I've restated a dozen times every time you mis-quote me. " Cat will make a double or triple in two to three years." Go back and look it up if you wish. It was trading at $80 at the time so that's $160 - $240 in 2014 or 2015. Pretty simple Toothy. Get it right. It's a range of price in a range of time. Only once have I ever made a specific prediction of a single price at a single time and I was wrong. I never saw the European financial crisis coming and neither did you. How come you never mention your prediction for it to go to $60 whenever? And by the way, I've never lost on a dime on CAT stock. If it's below my average cost basis I don't sell. I just wait for the inevitable rebound and then take my profit. For anybody that's not in a coma, it's easy see that CAT is a cyclical stock in the cyclical world. For decades there have been recessions and recoveries. It's a simple play, buy during the recessions, hold during the recovery. Sell near the top. Repeat. History has shown that to be almost a certain double or triple every time. Hence, my prediction. Check the data for 1981, 1991, 2010. Easy money.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Bashers

    by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 3, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    I'm not going to waste my time again looking for the original post as I've already done that once for you. "A double or triple in two to three years." I stand by it and I think it'll happen. You do nothing but say it's all a house of cards.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Bashers

    by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 3, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    You know that's not what I said. I said "CAT would make a double OR triple in two TO three years." So anything between $160 and $240 between 2014 and the end of 2015 is golden. We'll see. And if it does make that you'll still claim it's helicopter Ben's funny money and it doesn't count anyway.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Why FED not initiate criminal investigations?

    by dhar06 Apr 3, 2014 10:41 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 3, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    What they did was within the law as written. Write your congressman and tell him that corporate tax law is screwed up and he ought to fix it. You and I are paying for it. They need to fix it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Bashers

    by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 3, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    I see the big picture just fine. The point is why wouldn't you take advantage of the tax laws as written? You'd be a fool not to. The issue is the rules suck. We should all be outraged that our elected officials have created the most convoluted tax code known to the history of democracy. It would put thousands of lawyers and accountants out of business but we should insist on a simple back of a napkin approach that everyone could understand. The hearing wasn't so much about CAT misbehaving as it was about how absurd the tax code is.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Bashers

    by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 2, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    Now for you. Does it make you feel big calling people names on an anonymous message board? What exactly is a "CAT paid for rat"? Yup I worked for CAT for 37 years. Made a good living and now enjoying the fruits of that work in retirement. Made a fortune buying CAT stock over the years and now sitting on a well diversified portfolio, the most of which my kids will inherit. So what? I just find it interesting that so many people enjoy reading sensational headlines and feel they have to comment on them with no real knowledge of the law or the business. CAT would be nuts not to take advantage of every loophole that's available. You do the same on your taxes. Everyone's obligation is to pay the minimum that you legally are responsible for. I must assume you don't just give Uncle Sam an extra $10,000 every year. Crawl back in your hole.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Bashers

    by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 2, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Toothy, 9 months or three years it makes no difference to me. But as soon as the up cycle starts again you can count on CAT catching at least a double from the recent lows. Where's your call for $60? I never saw you put a date on that. Never lied on this board and have no reason to. I made a call and I'll stand by it. "A double or triple in two to three years" Still sounds plenty attainable to me.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat Apr 2, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    Wow it's like turning the light on in a dirty apartment. The roaches scurry everywhere. Get a little sensational news that a blue chip multinational is taking advantage of a screwed up tax code and every basher in the world has to put in his two cents. We'll I think that anybody here that claims his kids as dependents or itemizes his deductions should feel ashamed. Look at how you are avoiding paying more tax than you owe. I think that's down right un-American. Shame shame shame. Crawl back into the walls.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    richoncat...

    by ray839 Mar 28, 2014 10:58 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 28, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    I guess you spoke just a little too soon. It's going to be a bloodbath next week Didn't you hear?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Will CAT buy GNRC

    by langdonsmith Mar 27, 2014 6:03 PM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 27, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    No. CAT already owns FG Wilson. Generac concentrates on smaller consumer sized applications. Home backup generators etc. CAT is not interested in consumer targeted products.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 27, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Why would CAT harass the guy that designed the strategy in the first place? Think maybe he was trying to blackmail the company? That's a real dangerous way to try to get ahead. "Hey CAT you implemented a shady tax strategy that I designed, if you don't give me a real cushy job I'm going to tell on you". My understanding is they put his office in a janitor's closet by the elevators and gave him nothing to do. Crosswords, jumbles, jigsaw puzzles. He sued, they settled. End of case.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 27, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    They settled a work discrimination suit with the guy that had a hand in designing the tax strategy. He wanted a corner office, but he's a tax nerd not an executive candidate. It has never been alleged nor has CAT been charged with tax evasion. The IRS has informed CAT that they think they owe more money. CAT and PWC will defend their returns. The purpose of the hearing is to understand how tax laws effect multinational company strategies. CAT and PWC will voluntarily participate. The US has the highest corporate income tax rate in the world. Is it wrong to take advantage of the laws as they are written? Do you take all the tax deductions available to you? Sure you do. Why wouldn't you, after all it's your money.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 27, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Did you see that most of the country was under 3 feet of snow for all of January and February? Sales in the west are down because there is little inventory available to sell. But let's stretch the bad news as far as we can. CAT barely participates in the housing market directly anyway. Builders use smaller cheaper equipment for that easy work.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    I think you lost your butt on the last transaction. Why not try it again?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Almost back to May 2012 price!!!!

    by toothtoothtooth Mar 26, 2014 8:47 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    Kick and scream they will, but she will unwind it. I don't think it'll ever stop snowing. We're into a new ice age. Global warming be damned.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorty getting squeezed

    by hurlyburly_97 Mar 25, 2014 9:56 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    Well it’s translated into increased revenue every time before. As I said yesterday find a chart of worldwide GDP growth and CAT revenue increases. 3.5 - 4.0% is the sweet spot. It yields 15 - 20% annual revenue increases. No reason for it to be different this time.

    Have you traveled in S. America, China, India, SE Asia or Africa? All their dirt is still in the wrong places. There are more people in the underdeveloped nations than there are in the developed. They want clean water, electricity, roads, airports, hospitals, school, etc, etc. CAT provides the equipment necessary to make those things possible. I know I won't convince you, as your bias is heartfelt, we'll just have to see. My guess, you'll move on to another board well before this all plays out.

    BTW China's 7.5% GDP growth is hardly a financial disaster. Is it the same as 12-15% last decade? Obviously not but the move from an agrarian rural culture to an urban sophisticated business economy is underway. There are a billion people in China that want what you have. They won't be denied. At 7.5% their economy doubles every 10 years. It takes a lot of infrastructure to support that kind of expansion. I'll take my chances, history is on my side.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorty getting squeezed

    by hurlyburly_97 Mar 25, 2014 9:56 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Well that's an interesting re-write of history. As I see it, out of the '91 recession through '99 CAT went, split adjusted, from $5 to $30. After the '01 recession through early '08 it went from $20 to $80. I'm not exactly sure how to characterize the movement after '08-'09 great recession. It wouldn't be right to say it went from $22 to $110 because it was so grossly discounted at $22 as many thought financial Armageddon was upon us. So let's call it $80 to $110. Albeit this was an abnormal recovery. Shortly after the US survived financial collapse Europe went in the tank and China, as the manufacturer for the world has yet to recover as it's two largest customers have fumbled the darn ball for the past 5 years. But perhaps now we're seeing Europe get it's house in order and clearly the US is strengthening.

    So you think it's all down hill from here and I think we'll see worldwide GDP growth in the 3.5% neighborhood next year and CAT will resume it's normal post recession expansion. Toothy mocks me all the time but I'll stand by my call for $160. Actually that's probably conservative. it's only 2X as opposed to historical 3-5X. Could I be a year off, sure but who cares? All I can say is we shall see.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Almost back to May 2012 price!!!!

    by toothtoothtooth Mar 26, 2014 8:47 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Hey Toothy, while you were sleeping Bernanke retired. Janet Yellen took his place. Must be a long winter in Minnesota.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    pinch formation

    by antoniomontgomery2010 Mar 26, 2014 10:59 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    These darn briefs are pinching me too, but does that predict anything?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorty getting squeezed

    by hurlyburly_97 Mar 25, 2014 9:56 AM
    richoncat richoncat Mar 26, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Nope, no confusion. I miss posted once that should have been to Messageboardspam and replied to you instead. All others have been spot on. You've got an opinion that '14 will look a lot like '13. You've based your investment thesis on a feeling. I think I'll go to the casino this afternoon as I have a feeling that black will come up more often than red on the roulette wheel. Wanna guess how that's going to work out? You may be right, but you may be terribly wrong. My humble advice to you is to be very careful. CAT has moved from being range bound at $85 +- $2.50 to nearly $100 very quickly. CAT can move very far, very fast if the market senses demand recovery. Refer to CAT's chart after every recession / downturn.

    I've re-read you latest post several times and I still have no clue what you current position is. Your identity and posts suggest that your bearish on CAT's prospects but you say if the market pushes CAT up to your next entry point you'll buy more? Huh? On that point I am confused.

    Also, does anybody have a clue as to what Antonio is saying below?

    Sentiment: Hold

CAT
102.83-0.10(-0.10%)Apr 17 4:01 PMEDT

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