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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 3:22 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Guess what?

    by dhar06 May 20, 2014 12:44 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 20, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Hey knucklehead, CAT doesn't make quarterly estimates. The analysts make the estimate CAT only reports quarterly results. So how is it fraud? Once a year generally during the 4th quarter results conference call CAT makes an estimate for the year. Revenue and profit with a target and a range around the target. Each subsequent quarter they report their quarterly results and adjust the annual estimates as necessary. They'll adjust the target and generally shrink the range around the target as the year goes on. CAT hasn't made quarterly estimates for 20 years. On the other hand, the analysts are paid to create quarterly and annual estimates for the companies they follow. CAT has no influence on the dozen or so professional analysts that report on them. They are free to publish anything they want. So if you want to suggest that the analysts are committing fraud somehow by changing their estimates then be my guest but saying CAT is intentionally misleading the market by reducing and then exceeding their quarterly results is patently false. They don't make quarterly estimates.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat May 15, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    I guess that if Cat was in the health insurance business this would be good news. But they're not so how is this relevant?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This can't be good for the "Sky is Falling" crowd.

    "Results for the Industrial Products sector in first-quarter 2014 provided little reason for the investors to rejoice. Roughly 84% of the sector’s companies in the S&P 500 group reported 9.3% year-over-year growth in earnings till May 9, 2014. Earnings beat ratio (percentage of companies coming out with positive surprises) was 66.7%. Revenues edged down 0.7% year over year with a beat ratio of just 18.2%.

    The earnings growth path is a bit erratic for the sector, as after a 9.3% earnings growth for the first quarter, only a marginal increase of 0.8% is expected for the second quarter. Second half of 2014 is likely to experience a 3.8% earnings growth in the third quarter and 8.7% in the fourth quarter. For the full-years 2014 and 2015, earnings growth are anticipated to be 7.8% and 12.3% respectively.

    For the top line, a wider fall of 1.5% is projected in the second quarter. Thereafter, revenues are likely to inch up 0.7% in the third quarter and 1.3% in the fourth quarter. For the full-years 2014 and 2015, revenues are predicted to rise 0.1% and 4.1% respectively.

    In view of all the Zacks sectors combined, total earnings growth rate in first-quarter 2014 is anticipated to be 1.2%. Revenue growth is predicted at 0.9% with a modest gain expected in margins.

    Important Players in the Machinery Industry

    Caterpillar Inc. (CAT-Free Report) is a $65.6 billion company operating in the construction and mining machinery industry. The company has recorded a 5.5% earnings growth in the past five years versus a meagre 1.30% for the industry. Year-to-date return has been recorded at 21.7%. Prospects are bright for the company as earnings are anticipated to rise 10.10% in the next five years."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Volume is dwindling day by day

    by dhar06 May 5, 2014 3:55 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 14, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Ray, the problem is Chicken Little wants the sky to fall. You won't change his mind with any objective report or argument. He wants everybody to be as miserable as he is. So be it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT will buy GNRC

    by sheamanski May 12, 2014 3:36 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 12, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    That won't happen. CAT already own FG Wilson. They manufacture and sell a full line of generators. There is no benefit to CAT by buying GNRC. It would be redundant. This comes up every few months but will never happen.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Argus Upgrade

    by richoncat May 7, 2014 3:43 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 12, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    I strongly suspect he is being sarcastic.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat May 7, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    "Argus increased its price target on Caterpillar after the company reported higher than expected Q1 EPS. The firm expects the company to benefit from continued growth in its Construction and Energy & Transportation businesses this year, and it keeps a Buy rating on the stock."

    Well look at that. That's only $40 short of the low end of my expectations for next year. It only a matter of time. Sweet!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Volume is dwindling day by day

    by dhar06 May 5, 2014 3:55 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 5, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Or sellers?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    To keep Revs and Stock price flat

    by cat_2_75 May 2, 2014 1:28 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 2, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    I'm hoping nothing is different this time. Get this economy rising and you'll see what I mean. It's just a matter of time, and Toothy reminds us often what I said my time frame was. Just be patient. :-)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Another CAT Plant Closing

    by cat_2_75 Apr 29, 2014 5:23 PM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 29, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    Because it is going much higher from here. Duh.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Toyota moving to Texas

    by base1hits Apr 29, 2014 8:21 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 29, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    Wouldn't surprise me a bit.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Results Surprised Even Me

    by richoncat Apr 24, 2014 8:04 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 25, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Do web search on "Caterpillar historical PE" YCharts has data. At the on set of a recovery CAT has seen PE's well into the 30's in anticipation of significant profit improvement..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Results Surprised Even Me

    by richoncat Apr 24, 2014 8:04 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 25, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    OK, we can include restructuring costs if you please but then the analyst's estimates go down by the same amount. Just need to keep the comparison's apples to apples. Either way it was better than I expected. But stock repurchases are a cash flow item not a P&L entry. Spending cash on hand to repurchase stock is just swapping one asset, cash, for another, stock. It's not a cost item. If they borrow money to cover the repurchase the cost of that borrowing is recorded in the period the cost is incurred, i.e. the future.

    Does anybody know how options exercises are handled now that companies are required to expense them? If they have the stock in the file drawer from a buy back and issue that stock to cover the equity compensation exercise, does it still need to be expensed? Just curious if this is a work around to lower compensation costs on the P&L. I'd also be interested in knowing how many shares that are granted as options to employees every year. How many does CAT have to buy back to avoid increasing the float each year.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Apr 24, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    What a Dufus. Sell off? It was up two bucks on what was basically a lack luster report. Revenues flat, profit up on cost cutting. Overall a wait and see report. My guess, we've seen to bottom of this business cycle. CAT stock is trading at an increased multiple due to future expectations. It behaves this way every cycle. Once the market sniffs a shift in the tide they'll run up the price in anticipation of the pending significant revenue increase. On the conference call today the repeatedly referred to their internal target of 25% pull through. So once the tide turns 25% of a lot of money is a lot of money. There will always be headlines that create fear. "Russia move troops to the Ukraine border" etc. Take it in stride. If you didn't take a position at $85 as suggested, you've missed the early part of the move. But don't despair, there is plenty of head room left. Historically a double or triple off the lows.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Results Surprised Even Me

    by richoncat Apr 24, 2014 8:04 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 24, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    It's also a weighted average and I'm not sure how it's weighted. But as an average it wouldn't include the full effect of the first quarter's repurchases. Your making the assumption that the $1 billion difference is option costs. That's way out of line. I don't believe the entire long and short term equity grants total a billion dollars. Maybe a few hundred million but not a billion.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Results Surprised Even Me

    by richoncat Apr 24, 2014 8:04 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 24, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Looks like it down 30 million shares to me.
    From this morning's earning release

    Weighted-average common shares outstanding (millions)
    Three Months Ended March 31

    2014 2013
    - Basic 626.7 656.2

    - Diluted 639.3 671.6

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Results Surprised Even Me

    by richoncat Apr 24, 2014 8:04 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 24, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    It's amazing how some people don't pay attention to the conference calls. All last year CAT said they were underproducing customer demand so that the dealers could run off their inventory. $3 billion worth last year. That story is over, CAT said so in the January call. Now their producing and selling to the dealers at roughly the current user buying rate. That alone will makes the revenues flat while sales to users decline story, CAT records sales when the equipment to delivered to the dealers. So you think after they let the dealers run off that inventory they'd stuff it back in? That's ridiculous.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    They beat the results, where from?

    by dhar06 Apr 24, 2014 8:42 AM
    richoncat richoncat Apr 24, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    More cr@p thrown on the wall to see what sticks? What exactly are you trying to say in the first sentence? It makes absolutely no sense. CAT makes an annual sales and profit forecast every year. They adjust it quarterly as the year progresses. They don't make quarterly estimates, the analysts do. CAT's not trying to cheat anybody. All they do is make an annual forecast and report against it every quarter. They just raised their annual profit expectations by $0.25.

    CAT pays all the taxes they owe. US tax code promotes parking profit cash overseas. Why would a company that makes and sells 70% of it's products overseas bring that cash back to the US and pay 35% for the privilege? Keep it parked overseas and grow the business rather than fund the US welfare state. All multinational companies do it. Apple, Microsoft & GE have billions parked overseas. It's just political theater. It wouldn't surprise me if CAT were move the HQ to Geneva. The current HQ building is 55 years old. They'll have to replace someday, and it won;t be in Peoria. CAT is a cyclical business, has been for 85 years. All you have to do is read the history and CAT's current position and future prospects become crystal clear. It's really an easy trade, accumulate during the down cycle, last year, hold for the inevitable rebound, now, sell during the ensuing peak. Repeat. Decade after decade. Just look at the long term chart. It's remarkable easy to see.

    BTW where are the China bashers? CAT's sales are up 30% in China Y-O-Y. I thought China was imploding? I thought CAT's China strategy was failing? Where are they now? Back under their rock is my guess.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • $1.61 excluding restructuring costs vs $1.24 analyst's consensus. Raised annual EPS forecast by $0.25 to $6.10. That's much better than I expected given the recent Sales to Users data. There are a variety of moving parts, it'll be interesting to hear what they have to say on the conference call. Of course there will be some here that say it's all smoke and mirrors made up financials, and simply fueled by central bankers trying to run inflation to the moon. (What inflation?) Nothing like beating the same broken drum forever while missing the biggest bull market in recent history. Up $4.00 in premarket trading. Sweet.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Ouch. After posting a couple months of single digit, -8%, Sales to Users declines, March's data is back into the double digits at -12%. Strengthening Energy and Transportation and Construction Industries couldn't offset further declines in Resource Industries (Mining). Unless mining starts to rebound it'll be tough for CAT to beat '13 results. Cost reductions can only take them so far. It'll be interesting to hear what they have to say on Thursday's conference call.

    Sentiment: Hold

CAT
109.96+0.60(+0.55%)Jul 11 4:01 PMEDT

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