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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 7:58 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Oh Boy! Here They Come

    by richoncat Jul 10, 2014 9:05 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 11, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I'm a lot closer to being right than you are. We're roughly 2x your call for $60 which you seem to always forget. There is no change of advice. Buy in the troughs sell in the boom. "Same as it always was, same as it always was". This was just a normal recession. 1981 was much worse and we recovered from that. Remember 27% urban unemployment with 15% annual inflation and 17% interest rates. Probably not. You were just an infant. CAT's factories were dark for 6 months. No orders, no work. I'm not seeing rampant inflation. With two years of bumper crops I think we'll see prices for food and meat drop. Corn is already headed to $4 maybe $3.50. Lots of reasons for price increases other than core inflation. Every company takes price when they can. Bye.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Oh Boy! Here They Come

    by richoncat Jul 10, 2014 9:05 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 11, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    You're not seeing the bigger picture. US growth has historically led the world out of recessions. So as the US goes so goes the world. Get the US growing at an acceptable rate and CAT's worldwide revenues will follow. Europe and China are moving off such a low base that any improvement will result in a significant increases in revenues. I expect 2015 to set new records at CAT. CAT stock always precedes the actual improvements by 6 - 12 months.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Oh Boy! Here They Come

    by richoncat Jul 10, 2014 9:05 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 10, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Awe come on bears you can do better than that. Go ahead and step in front of the US economic train. Surely it'll derail before it pounds you into dust. You know it's all different this time. All that false pumping by Greenspan, Bernake and Yellen eventually has to turn out really bad. Inflation is raging, no workforce slack, inventories are at a minimum, wages are spiraling out of control. Too many dollars chasing too few goods. I think I read somewhere that an economic pundit as reporting 7.5% annual inflation. Something about a '12 dollar being worth $0.85 in '14. Not sure where I saw that but it was on the internet so it has to be true. "meet my boyfriend ... uhh Bonjour". The world's economies have to fail. "So let it be written. So let it be done." (You've got to love Yul Brynner in that movie) Just another day at the office.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I can already hear the screeching. "The sky is falling. The sky is falling." Chicken little will tell anyone willing to listen the end is near. Frankly, a little correction would be very healthy at this point. This too shall pass. Just stay tuned. Q2 results scheduled for 7/24. Analysts seem to be expecting a good report. That bothers me, based on no new information I'd prefer to see them all bearish. Have a great day.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Where Do Shorts Go to Lick Their Wounds?

    by richoncat Jul 3, 2014 9:57 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 3, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    But they have had significantly a higher PE ratio when bottoming. That's how you have to judge the value of the stock. The absolute price is irrelevant. It's the PE ratio that matters and it's not terribly high at 19. Throughout 2010 is was 25. Still room to run before the business rebounds.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Where Do Shorts Go to Lick Their Wounds?

    by richoncat Jul 3, 2014 9:57 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 3, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Great, glad you're here. What's your position? Short at $85? I'm long with average cost of $43. Plus 10 year options with an average grant price of $54 set to expire over the next couple years. I've made one short term call, based upon chart conditions and not fundamentals, that was wrong, as Obama says, "Sue me."

    CAT always has a high PE coming out of economic softness because investors see the value of the company before the business turns. Look at any historical PE chart for CAT and you'll see the same pattern repeated over and over again. Depressed single digit PE as the economy softens, average PE's at the top and bottom and inflated PE as strength begins to emerge. Just get the timing right and you'll make big money. Been the same for 40 years that I've been watching. I see no reason for it to be different this time.

    BTW GE's PE is 22, BRK and AAPl are 16. CAT's 19 isn't way out of whack. The big dogs at CAT wouldn't be buying back billions worth of stock if they weren't confident in the future. Stay tuned. More strength to follow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Where are all the shorties now that they've been beaten up so badly? Only a few months ago I was warning about how CAT stock can run up in a big hurry and that the shorts better have stops up close. I was ridiculed at length because it would be different this time. But history has a way of repeating itself. From my perspective, the more things change the more they stay the same. CAT has historically been a great stock to hold during improving economic conditions. Chanos has to be aching. Just how long can some people be wrong before they finally capitulate? Longs, have a big lunch on me. Shorts, whimper in the dark as you get your next margin call.

    Sentiment: Hold

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