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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 154 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 3:18 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    If the world was flat, Columbus wouldn't have discovered America. So what? Analysts that create the consensus estimates take the float into consideration for their numbers. Dumb.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    FRAUDULENT EARNINGS, AS USUAL

    by keepshorting4 Jan 27, 2014 2:07 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    keepdreaming4

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    Maybe in the short term. But long term you'd better have a product that people want to buy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    That $10 Billion is through 2018. There are billions in free cash flow to be booked over the next 4 years. Twelve months through Q1 '14 Cat will have bought back almost $4 Billion. Assuming they don't give it all back in stock option grants, that'll return some value to shareholders. I'd prefer dividends but it still works for me.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    95.50 Next!

    by i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Jan 16, 2014 1:18 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Back at you Bill. I just enjoy listening to the buzz. I'm not sure what it is about the lifers that creates the patience and understanding of Cat's business. But listening to the daily bear and bull analysis is just fun because it's so full of BS. Again I guess it all depends on what you're investment time horizon is. Days/weeks or years/decades. The lifers just see things in a decades long perspective.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    95.50 Next!

    by i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Jan 16, 2014 1:18 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    Conference call is at 10:00 AM CST. 11:00 AM EST.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Financial engineering at its best

    by againscammed Jan 27, 2014 8:19 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 27, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    $9 Billion in free cash flow and this knucklehead is predicting bankruptcy. When was the last time a company declared bankruptcy due to too much cash? This isn't even a significant recession. $56 Billion in sales would have been a record year prior to 2011. Cat will weather this storm and come out stronger than ever. The timing on the BUCY acquisition could have been better, they'd probably get it now for half of what they paid in 2010 but history will show that to be a brilliant move in a decade. There are a lot of shorts hurting this AM. Watch the volume explode out of the gate.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    t-36 months til bankruptcy

    by againscammed Jan 24, 2014 1:31 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 24, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    That's a great question. I know they lost a million dollars a day in the early '80s. I was there as a new engineer and every day I worried about being laid off. That's when Cat got some backbone and started thinking about how to be flexible enough to shrink costs during recessions but not lose market share during boom times. They concluded that the contract with the UAW was not viable and that they need change. But did they remain profitable during the great depression? I know they lost money in 1932 but throughout the depression, I'm not sure. I'll have to do some research.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    t-36 months til bankruptcy

    by againscammed Jan 24, 2014 1:31 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 24, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    If it didn't happen in '08-'09 during the worst recession since the 30's, why would it happen now? By the way Cat Finance was profitable in both '08 and '09. For that matter every year since their inception. You're dreaming.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Quarterly Machinery Sales Down 9% YOY

    by richoncat Jan 24, 2014 9:47 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 24, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    No I wasn't surprised by the revision to the mean. In fact it surprised me that it went above $90 in the first place. We're range bound until some new positive or negative news surfaces. Maybe we'll hear something on the conference call Monday, but I doubt it. They'll stay quiet until there is something good to say.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Ouch. Cat's business continues to soften. The only good news is that this is the toughest comp of the year. The 4th qtr of '12 was the peak so this is the comp against the best quarter ever. The other point to notice is that the rate of decline might be easing. Worldwide machinery sales to users down 9% verses 12% for Oct and Nov. Monday's report won't be good. I sure didn't understand the recent run up to $92 but I took advantage of it. The trading range has been $85 +/- $2.50 so why did it touch the +3 sigma limit with no clear catalyst? Not clear to me but i think we're back in that trading range at least until w/w sales to users turns positive. Ben, what are you hearing about order rates?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Jan 23, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    If you think inferior designed heavy equipment is cheaper in the long run you're mistaken. Just how long do you think replacement parts will be available for those tinker toys. I assume you bought a Yugo when they were offered in the US as they were definitely cheaper. Do you see any of them on the road today. Nope they've all been recycled into tin cans. You get what what you pay for. Purchase price is actually one of the lowest cost of ownership factors. Fuel is first, maintenance is second, availability is third (renting a replacement because the primary is unavailable is expensive, plus shutting down an entire site because the equipment won't run runs up costs in a hurry). Buy a Cat and all three are lowest unless of course the cheap machine is a yard queen that never gets started.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    My main concern with CAT

    by stuckwindow Jan 17, 2014 11:01 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 21, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Oh yeah, those gigantic engines would be really easy to clone. Just get your calipers out and measure all 20 million dimensions. Right.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    My main concern with CAT

    by stuckwindow Jan 17, 2014 11:01 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jan 20, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    It's no different than the Japanese in the 70's and 80's. Heck look at today's Komatsu dozers, they're a spittin image of Cat's pre high drive tractors. Every manufacture buys and takes apart their competitor's machines to see what they've got. It's a lot easier to reverse engineer new features than it is to create them from scratch. But trust me they don't always get it right. Getting dimensions on a piece part is pretty easy. Figuring out the manufacturing process and metallurgy can be a whole other game. Cat's been a leader in the design and manufacturing of heavy equipment for 85 years. Japan has been playing catch up for 50 years so don't expect the Chinese to get it right the first time. Ever see the pictures of 20 Chinese men using shovels to load the bucket of a wheel loader? It's hysterical. I give them 20 years minimum to get a competitive product in the market. They're starting with the equivalent of a motorized wheel barrow. It'll take them some time to get to a 980H.

    Sentiment: Hold

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