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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

richoncat 84 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Richoncat pees sitting down

    by messageboardspam May 31, 2014 2:13 AM
    richoncat richoncat May 31, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    Those comments are certainly going to help move the discussion of CAT's business forward. But thanks for the kind thoughts. Hope you have a fine weekend as well.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Jun 4, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    Fine then a loaf of bread and a gallon if milk will cost $5 ea. Forget about fast food, $7.50 for a Big Mac? It'll never happen. As soon as the under class bids themselves out of the market they'll have no jobs. Let's just invite more undocumented workers into the country to work for cash. Who in their right minds would pay an illiterate teenager $15 an hour for simple menial tasks? Get an education and earning superior wages for superior skills. Pushing wages up from the bottom by dictate will never work. You've got to pull them up with skills.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Accounting Practice by CAT

    by dhar06 Jun 4, 2014 8:01 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jun 5, 2014 7:34 AM Flag

    What a BOZO. You have no idea what you're talking about. Any transfer to a dealer is a SALE, just like automobile companies. CAT does nearly 100% of their business through licensed dealers, been that way for 85 years. Frankly the only entity CAT does business directly with is the US government. Any transfer from a CAT facility to a Caterpillar Parts Depot is not a sale. Those depots are owned by CAT. All the inventory in them is owned by CAT. The inventory is placed there so it can be quickly distributed to multiple dealers. Any transfer from a depot to a dealer is a sale governed by the laws under which the sale is made. Fact. Go finds another windmill to tilt.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Out of ideas but still plenty of gimmicks...

    by disk_masher Jul 24, 2014 11:02 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 25, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    Would you like to detail your allegations? They made a billion dollars on $14B in sales. They don't control the economy. What decision did they make to slow down China growth or cause the European recession or finish the World Cup development in Brazil? Which of the managers do you believe is doing a bad job? You just want to "stick it to the man". You have no idea how hard those jobs are and how many hours those guys work. Trust me you couldn't keep up with their secretaries. Two good quarterly beats under less than stellar conditions. What else do you want?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat Jul 24, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    PPS of $1.57 all in. $1.69 excluding restructuring costs. Pretty much in line with expectations. Plus they announce additional stock buyback of $2.5 Billion for Q3 '14. Strong dividend and stock repurchase will keep this floating until revenue picks back up. Pre-market seems disappointed on thin volume. I think it'll rebound after the report and conference call is digested.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat May 7, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    "Argus increased its price target on Caterpillar after the company reported higher than expected Q1 EPS. The firm expects the company to benefit from continued growth in its Construction and Energy & Transportation businesses this year, and it keeps a Buy rating on the stock."

    Well look at that. That's only $40 short of the low end of my expectations for next year. It only a matter of time. Sweet!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Target Price

    by sayuthink May 22, 2014 1:53 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 23, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    CAT will not split their stock at this level. It was near $120 in '11 and '12 and they didn't split. There was a time when CAT split almost every time it got over $100 but that's just an added expense many companies don't bother with anymore. Maybe when it gets closer to $200 they'll consider it but I'd be surprised if they announce a split before that. JMHO.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat by richoncat May 21, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    I love it when the bears come out breathlessly announcing CAT's coming collapse. Of course they are a bit premature. Remember what CAT said in the last conference call. 2013 sales were well below end user buying rates as dealers reduced inventory by over $3.0 billion. That's over, CAT's sales to dealers has rebounded as inventory is built at the dealers. 2014 sales will meet or exceed sales to users numbers as inventory returns to more normal levels. So, the latest poor sales to users data may not indicative of CAT's Q2 sales to dealers. No doubt -13% is not good news and if sales to users continues to soften, it is certainly a bad sign. But I'd be careful taking a position based upon one data point. Time will tell.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat May 15, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    I guess that if Cat was in the health insurance business this would be good news. But they're not so how is this relevant?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dividend Increase..richoncat

    by ray839 Jun 11, 2014 2:17 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jun 11, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    Really not that tough a call. They've raised it every year for 20+ years. They must be raking in a huge pile of cash. I expected an increase but not $0.10 after buying $1.7B of stock this spring. Got to give them credit, they're doing everything they can to return cash to shareholders as they wait for mining to rebound. Of course some will say they're borrowing at 0% to make this possible. I say nuts. Let's see what the balance sheet says at Q2 results. Chanos must be dying. Care to double down again Jim?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Where are all the shorties now that they've been beaten up so badly? Only a few months ago I was warning about how CAT stock can run up in a big hurry and that the shorts better have stops up close. I was ridiculed at length because it would be different this time. But history has a way of repeating itself. From my perspective, the more things change the more they stay the same. CAT has historically been a great stock to hold during improving economic conditions. Chanos has to be aching. Just how long can some people be wrong before they finally capitulate? Longs, have a big lunch on me. Shorts, whimper in the dark as you get your next margin call.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Gates

    by base1hits Jul 14, 2014 8:49 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 14, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    Obviously the market doesn't regard DE's growth opportunities as highly as they do CAT's. Simple as that. Will CAT's price return to a market PE due to price deterioration or profit improvement? I'm betting on the latter. Mining can't stay in the tank forever. The world needs the elements and minerals that come out of the ground.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    richoncat-Heavy-Machinery Makers Push Tracking Tools

    by ray839 Jul 27, 2014 9:29 PM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 28, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    The parts business is the crux of their business strategy. They view the worldwide machine population as an annuity that will drive parts demand for decades. The big machines will consume up to five times its original cost in parts over its lifetime, $millions. Parts with margins of 300-400%. The smaller machines skid steer and backhoe loaders are more of the throw away variety. They replace filters, hoses, pumps and the like on small machines but big rebuild items, transmissions, engines, final drives, undercarriage etc are reserved for the large machines. Many will be rebuilt several times over their useful lives.

    Many equipment manufactures use off the shelf, purchased third party components. CAT generally designs proprietary components precisely because that requires customers to come back to CAT for those replacement parts. The parts business is built into every design, sourcing and sales decision. How will that decision impact the highly profitable parts business? That's why it's very common to find purchased components on the smaller machines and CAT designed and sourced components on the big machines.

    Internet linked machines will alert customers and dealers if there are issues with their machines. The logic being make small repairs before they result in big system failures and resulting increased operating costs. Thus constantly connecting the customers to CAT dealers. By contract dealers are required to purchase their parts from CAT unless they are working on competitors machines. You will never see an aftermarket, will fit part coming from a CAT dealer.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    CAT Results

    by richoncat Jul 24, 2014 7:39 AM
    richoncat richoncat Jul 24, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Why not now? Would you wait for it to go much higher in the future? They obviously think that future results will be much stronger as mining recovers. They have record free cash flow at this moderate business level, and their debt is covered by CAT Financial's receivables. What would you have them do with the extra cash?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Oh I can hear the howling already. "Borrowing money to buy back their stock". "Phony books to hide their losses". "Just more financial engineering to delay the inevitable meltdown". What a bunch of garbage. This is a tremendous use of their free cash flow. Return value to shareholders while they await the rebound in the mining business.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Just saw a chart on gold prices for the past year. It was basically flat with some variation around the mean. Isn't gold the safe haven investment during inflationary periods? I thought we always see a run up in gold prices if the markets sniff a hint of inflation? Some here say inflation is rampant and a growing threat. They see run away prices for everything from ground beef to green beans. Isn't that a sure fire indication of inflation? There are a ton of reasons for price movement at the retail level; supply constraints, marketing decisions, new market penetration strategies, seasonal issues, on and on. Simply seeing price increases in the highly variable food segment is not evidence of inflation.

    Investopedia defines inflation as: "The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling". By definition if wages are stagnant there can there be no significant inflation. If people don't have additional money to spend companies can't make price increases stick. If prices rise, price in-elasticity will force them back to equilibrium as demand falls. If wages are flat where does the money come from to feed the inflationary cycle? Maybe there's inflation in NY for Gucci bags and S550's because of all the money being pumped into the bond market. But most of us aren't looking for $1,000 handbags and luxury sedans. Just saying'.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sales to Users Data

    by richoncat May 21, 2014 9:09 AM
    richoncat richoncat May 21, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    So it's your opinion verses CAT's senior management most recent statements. OK I think I'll go with the guys that live and breath the companies fortunes every day. They probably have a better handle on what's going on than you do.

    BTW, almost all of the plant closing announcements have been for small plants that supplied BUCY with various components. CAT's advanced manufacturing operations and redesigned components for BUCY's machines have made those plants obsolete. The writing was on the wall when CAT bought BUCY that many of those small, inefficient operations would be closed and components resourced to CAT suppliers or existing operations. No new news here.

    Like I said before, -13% is not good news but it not necessarily a killer for the year. '13 was brutal, it shouldn't take much for '14 to be equal to '13. Also, +12% in N America is outstanding. CAT's highest margin geographic area has always been N America. We shall see. Q2 results in 8 weeks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    MM are keeping this #$%$ still above $103.00

    by dhar06 May 29, 2014 3:18 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 29, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    If they lost a contract, as I've said before, CAT is willing to let another company win a bad deal. They do not believe Siemens can meet the top speed specifications with a low horsepower engine.

    There will be no undisclosed tax payments or penalties. All material financial information must be publicly revealed. There are no secrets. If the government decides to change the tax laws retroactively, they will pay what they owe. There are no secrets.

    Finally the stock is priced where the market thinks it should be priced. If you've only followed this company for even just a few business cycles you'd know that CAT's stock always anticipates improving conditions and discounts deteriorating conditions well before the change actually happens. Hence the title "Bellwether" company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Volume is dwindling day by day

    by dhar06 May 5, 2014 3:55 PM
    richoncat richoncat May 5, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Or sellers?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • richoncat richoncat Jun 4, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    But the inflation as a result of unjustified wage increases will cause all goods and services to increase in price. Paying more than justified wages for unskilled labor may sound charitable but small business operating on slim margins cannot afford it. They'll pass along the increase and everything will cost more. It's not government's job to set wages. Let the market decide what it can afford. Or let's just adopt a socialist approach and everybody shares equally. We know how that turns out.

    Sentiment: Hold

CAT
100.52-0.23(-0.23%)Aug 1 4:02 PMEDT

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