At least every other year at Thanksgiving time the unions and the airline companies go head-to-head about come contractual issue. Thanksgiving is one of (if not THE) most heavily traveled day for the airlines and the unions take an opportunistic approach in strong-arming management. Like clockwork this happens.
If you watch the stock as closely as I do (minute by minute) you get to see the game played out in the market as well as the unions overtly fill the news waves in a pressure attempt, and, they F with the stock price in a covert effort. And both are going on at this time.
Therefore, if you are a long term investor of LUV I would NOT panic here as the negotiations will move forward, mud will be slung, the stock price will reflect the GAMES and then recover very quickly based on the fundamentals.
However, if you're trading LUV this is a wet-dream situation that doesn't get offered every day. The unions, who have stock involvement either directly or indirectly will wipsaw the price with huge swings which will allow for a feeding frenzy as a trader. (I'm sure you know the risks and the rewards of getting involved!!!)
In short, "this too shall pass" and when a settlement is reached or the arbitration judgment is handed down, the stock will head north once again as the company fundies will return as the primary focus.
FOR SWA MANAGEMENT. In every contract you agree to going forward a clause HAS TO BE PLACED that negotiations CAN NEVER HAPPEN in the weeks surrounding the Thanksgiving/Christmas holidays'. This wording HAS to be introduced into ALL contracts going forward less we repeat this bi-annual silliness again and again.
OK so LUV is the last one with no bag fees. For the short term this is NOT an issue as it'll give a competitive edge. And let's be clear here! SWA DOES charge a bag fee. It's embedded in their discount (cough, choke) fees. In case you haven't noticed SWA's fees are frequently higher than the competition. I'd say 80% of the time. It's to the degree that when considering option on my last 8 flight segments to SWA destination cities, I chose a competitor. And that's including the bag fee. So don't sweat the revenue aspect as LUV is maxed out on what they charge for a flight. If they ADD the bag fee they will take themselves out of the total market.
Being last to enter has an advantage. Also, the fee doesn't have to be $25, right. Even a smaller fee would present a competitive edge. The other legacy carriers would have to come DOWN in fees to match SWA. A win-win scenario.
Trust me, LUV management has looked at this topic "every which way but Sunday". (And east coast saying) They know that adding a bag fee makes a flight TOO expensive as they're NOT a "discount" carrier. What the flying public hasn't caught on to yet is that SWA is discount ONLY to the degree of not charging extra fees. THAT is their niche! The bag fee is included in the price of the ticket and EVERYONE knows this!
A barrage of RCI stuff hit me yesterday. Perhaps you saw some of it.
First, the Destination Channel on DirecTv has a 1 hour show on Bosom Restaurants. The featured Tilted Kilt mostly, Bikinis substantially, and Bombshells a little bit. A pretty interesting show for those that have an investment in RCI.
The take home message is that Bikinis is a prime time business. That Tilted Kilt is running on all cylinders. And that Bombshells is an "alsoran" that's worth a few minutes in the 1 hour show but that's all. I know RCI didn't get to edit the show for total content. Nor do I know the intent of the directors and producers. But if I were to gauge the weight of each business it would sound like this.
Tilted Kilt = A+
Bikinis = A
Bombshells = D+
I hope they show this again.
Now for the 2nd observation of RCI-esque companies.
After viewing the above show, I was compelled to see what patrons are saying about Bombshells. MUCH to my dismay I was able to find a pretty health resource. If you google Bombshells Restaurant you'll get a few hits. Of them are some Yelp reviews from customers. OMG!!!!!! The take home message was (CLEARLY) that Bombshells has the best uniforms BUT THAT'S ALL. The wait staff is rude. The food is OK. The diversity of beer is non-existent (THAT'S the highlight of the other 2 competitors) And the worst one yet. Both Bombshells are turning away customers!!!!!!!!!!! They're only showing Dallas Cowboys games and WILL NOT put on another game when asked. HEY STUPID RCI. Sunday is only 1 day in the week. If you pizz off customers by not playing other games (even on smaller screen) they won't come back ANY OTHER TIME!
FYI RCI. For every person you pizz off, they will (on average) share that with 22 others. And you want to turn away customers who want to watch a different game???? Clean up your act RCI. What kind of nut-jobs are managing these shops??
But to be clear, it needs to hold through 10.40 on Thursday on good volume ( 60K).
And it wasn't rocket science but rather realization that the machine wasn't broken, but, someone put water in the gas tank. Easily fixed as there was no "root" problem.
Look at this another way. Say the news tomorrow is that RCI settled for $2M total or, the case was thrown out.
DO you think that RICK would be up $3 the next day? Heck no!!! On 150K shares the stock would settle at $11.50ish. This isn't that difficult to understand or anticipate. It IS HOWEVER hard to stomach as an "investment" shouldn't act as a personal toy which trades in a channel.
Bring on the dividend guys!!!!
BTW. The timing of the dividend no longer has a punitive effect near $10.00ish. If RCI released a dividend 3 weeks ago when there was a healthy short interest, the short holder would have to PAY the dividend. But now that the short interest has been substantially covered, the instigators of this never-ending channeling will actually see a benefit in a dividend.
I noticed a "HTB" condition on my trading screen earlier today. As the MORNING progressed I was wondering just who was suicidal. Then came mid day where the slow and methodical down-trend confirmed that perhaps the pukes aren't that stupid after all. The price trend and the volume characteristics both show that there should be caution and NOT euphoria going forward in the short term. Couple that with a new round of Ms Rudy magic in the last 2 days and there you go, caution.
Kudos Ms Rudy (again, again, again) you managed to acquire options for Bruggy at under 7 and were able to sell those 60K shares at 13.4+. The rough math shows a $450K profit for a man who's not involved in his own stock actions.
Here's the million dollar question:
Does the Magician Rudy keep her employment in the combined Qorvo?????? Here's an offer. If they let you go could you please handle my portfolio????????????????????????????
I'm not sure w#$%$o's censoring t#$%$ese posts but t#$%$e one I just typed was in EVERY WAY in readable Englis#$%$.
I #$%$ave no idea w#$%$ere all t#$%$e funky c#$%$aracters came from.
Maybe you're not supposed to know w#$%$at I wrote???
For those of you who #$%$re following RFMD (CLOSELY!!!!!!!!!!!#$%$ You'll notice (or not) th#$%$t #$%$ SEC Form 425 w#$%$s filed tod#$%$y!!!!!
You c#$%$n rese#$%$rch very e#$%$sily the signific#$%$nt of this. It's HUGE #$%$s ............... is #$%$ppro#$%$ching very soon!
If you answer EITHER of these nutjobs you're playing into their hand (paying their salaries for getting the unwitting to sign in).
Notice that DBR's posts are all over the planet, literally. Every hot-topic is offered in an effort to have you sign in to argue with the clown. Notice also the SVS8000 always chimes in, and, is always supporting of what ever the DumBunnyR has to say.
Notice also the bulk of DBR "offerings" (gag, choke, puke) are bundled in a short time frame such as to get the quota filled for the RFMD board.
Bottom line. DBR and SVS are here for their own finances by having the unknowing sign in. That's the MO as less than 10% of their posts have to do with RFMD. But, and MOST IMPORTANT, note the length of the posts!!! Over 90% of them are 1 sentence and ALWAY inflaming such as to bait a topic for discussion.
DO with this as you may, but, DBR and her crony SVS will keep the thread alive on any given post. If you answer either one may I suggest counseling as you can let water fall off a ducks back. LET IT GO as it pertains to these 2 clowns.
Disclaimer. I offer this so we might get back to being a board which offers intelligent conversation and opinion on RFMD!!!! That's my MO.
The blow-off sell already happened on the close to 200K shares traded on the trial "news". RCI isn't worth any less for the release of info that was already known!!!!!! All it did was to serve the few individuals who had RCI short and needed to get the channel back down to $10.00. Nothing more, nothing less!!!!!!
So RCI needs to flat line for 1 more day, then head back to 10.50 where it will stagnate again on it's way up to $12. It's really that simple. The value of the company, the profits they'll make this Q, has nothing to do with the print on paper (news release). But the "news" does have a motive and it HAS played out.
I pray for the day when a different "investor" (as we only have gamers in the mix) comes in and changes the status quo. If there was ever an opportunity for a middle sized firm to come in and clean some clocks, this would be the equity. (You all remember March of 2010, right?)
I'm thinking that most of you know this already. Some will answer back with their usual gibberish. KMASS in advance. But others might be on the cusp and a little impatient. To those I suggest not be swayed by news releases that were already running in the background. (BTW, there's a pole tax issue out there also. LOL)
If RCI dies this correctly they'll have reserves that will build up such that any "FINAL" verdict money will be banked. And IF there is no judgment against the company, the expensed $'s can go to the investors as a dividend. It's really that simple as "an ounce of prevention ................ cure"!
BTW. I'm still waiting for RCI to release the earnings from Robust. I called Robust. They said that RCI has that info. I wrote RCI and am still waiting a release. Let's be responsible RCI. (trying not to choke on that one)
As Rick's NY is not the only strip club in the state, what are the other clubs who have the same pay practices going to do? I'm hoping they will join in and help defend what RICK's is up against. If they don't, they'll suffer the same situation.
Come now. There's 100's of strip clubs in NY. And one can imagine that most of them have the same pay practices. Also, there had to be some pre-hire in servicing and SIGNED FORMS that provides the format of compensation to which the dance was fully aware.
The dancers can't double dip, right? You can't get a minimum wage, and, keep the bulk of the dance money (VIP, Table, etc) and cry fowl. I'm assuming RICK NY club charged a nightly fee. That alone doesn't suggest "employee". I don't recall a postal worker going into the post office and having to pay in order to work. No, they would be employees!!! An independent contractor might be charged this fee.
Here's the point that's been left out of the discussion. The dancers that are bitchen about this need to be put under the hot lamp. Some one pull up their previous income taxes!!!!!!! There's benefits to filing as an independent contractor as a lot of "deductibles" can be entered on the filing. There's not too many "deductibles that can be taken as an employee. So these slimeballs want the IRS benefits of filing as an IC but they're now stating that they're employees. Lets pull their previous tax filings and see what they did. BUT MORE IMPORTANT, if this suit does go through and sees them as employees, they HAVE TO re-file their income tax returns as employees. THAT CAN NOT get re-classified to years in arrears and NOT refile their NY State and Federal Tax Returns as employees.
Hey RCI lawyers!!!!! Make sure this is brought up in the trial (or introduce it somewhere so that it can be introduced in the appeal. If it's not entered in the initial deliberations is can't be included in the appeal as the appeal is "specific", and not a whole new re-trial.
The business model of Yahoo Finance is to get people to sign in. If you do, the "watchers" of this site throw advertising at you, and, monitor your movement on the site. The advertisers pay Yahoo for the number of persons who sign in.
Notice that DBR is on here day after day, really says nothing, and covers every topic imaginable in order to pizzoff, agitate, anger, baffle and confuse. All in an effort to have you sign in and get Paid for entering his (RFMD) domain.
So carry on as you see fit. But take note that all you'll be achieving is paying this clown's salary. And from my perspective, her input isn't worth compensation. DBR please note. There's a better approach to getting a following. Perhaps you're other user names are more successful?
Tomorrow will be judgment day. Up .11 on average volume could be an "all clear" versus the plummet I was expecting. In all honesty, I was negligent in not looking at the history of Ms Rudys' activity. After I wrote the warning on Friday I looked at the recent Form 4 filings thinking they were forthcoming. To my dismay (in that it made my call essentially invalid AKA silly) Ms Rudy had ALREADY struck in the early part of last week (Nov 3 and 4).
SO Tuesday will be a significant tell. FOR SURE, RFMD will trace the movement of SWKS as the SOX demands that they will mirror significantly.
SVS: Neurotic?? Really?? Horse : Cart : Black. Fill in the blanks. Or is THAT a symptom of being neurotic? Carry on Pizzant. Keep your useful posts a-commin. (that's sarcasm BTW)
Here's what's going to happen.
As the drop today had nothing to do with RFMD but EVERYTHING to do with the SOX caused by the action in SWKS, you MUST liquidate a good portion of your RFMD holdings at the close.
There's a number of reasons for doing this (Can't share as I give away my stragity) but my opinion will be supported by the plethora of form 4's on Monday as Ms Rudy will back-date the sold options to 13.80 of 11-6-14. That's how she rolls!!!
Can I be wrong? heck yes. But YEARS of watching RFMD suggest to be proactive as history (AKA the actions of Ms Rudy) tend to repeat themselves.
It is 2014 so this might not be far fetched.
Back-in-the-day banks would make profits and those dollars would be distributed amongst the shareholders. Well consider this:
Perhaps the insider and a close group of friends found a way to SUBSTANTIALLY increase their profits and leave the stock market out of the loop? There's just too many legal expenses and penalties and government dings that are seemingly ENDLESS over the last 4 years. Just when you think the last penalty has been exposed and paid, another pops up for more millions. Where are these dollars going to???????? Have they paid off the national debt? Have we funded the existence of some regulatory body? Is this a form of payola to keep banks in (shady) business? I just don't understand what's going on. But even to a blind person you have to, at THIS JUNCTURE, start to scratch your head as to the shenanigans that are going on.
Someone PLEASE tell me where these billions of dollars are ending up????? I'm fearful that someone back is getting scratched through these events. What I do know is that the shareholder is left holding their hands out as the "profits" are put into paying a number of NEVER-ENDING penalties.
I'd love and color that anyone can add. At a minimum, am I alone in my puzzlement????
.... will also see a head-fake at the open. WATCH THE VOLUME for confirmation!!!!!!!!
Dear RCI CEO.
As the head of a multi-million dollar (essentially, at this juncture) T & A company, I trust and pray that you're not enticed by shiny objects. Hope that makes sense to you as carrots are dangled to persons in your position ALL THE TIME. I trust you're mature enough to see the difference between the shiny object vs the meat-and-potatoes of a new business or investment.
So far you've grown the company and for that you should be recognized. We're at a point now where it's time to reward the investor. Which BTW is a self fulfilling prophecy toward even better ROIC and higher share prices. Right now, despite anything you've done to grow the business, it's destined to trade under the radar unless the inertia has been changed.
(Inertia = the tendency for an object at rest, to stay at rest, until acted upon by an outside force.)
We'll see $16 by years end. Mark this one (and the one from last week)
BTW. RFMD will see 14.12 at the opening tomorrow. Do with it as you see fit as it'll ride the wave of SWKS and the sox.