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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

rickn27 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 11:18 AM Member since: Apr 8, 2004
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  • Reply to

    a wonderful buying opportunity

    by o_xia Apr 14, 2014 11:05 AM
    rickn27 rickn27 Apr 14, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    let's see - price drops 16% when market cap is diluted by only 8% - and that assumes that they take the $5M and go out to the backyard, pile it up and set a match to it. These selloffs on offerings are always overdone.

  • likely because the splash news pages are talking about railroads getting stimulus, and solar not mentioned. But solar's already getting massive support. JKS just got a good rate loan, and they're dirt cheap. China committed to cleaning up their air because pollution disease is on their buck, and civil unrest isn't far behind if they DON't clean up. Good buy point right here.

  • Reply to

    Tilson conference

    by rickn27 Apr 1, 2014 2:26 PM
    rickn27 rickn27 Apr 2, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    that's good to hear. I've only considered being a customer. I'm not.... yet. Anyway, that was the grumbling I heard a year or so ago at chat boards. Even then, there were some who disagreed and thought customer service was OK.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's interesting that this stock has a 42% short interest, and yet Whitney Tilson will be giving a conference on value investing, and it is a pretty fair danger that he'll have positive things to say about CALL, after earlier referring to MagicJack as perhaps the next Netflix. That might be a bit over the top -or not. It's a damn inexpensive product when ATT is charging you $40/month minimum for little value on your landline. Doing my DD, the only problems seem to be customer support could be improved. Looking at the last ER and the current PE, it seems like an easy bet for going long, especially today ahead of the Tilson conference.

  • If you go to the SEC's site, and look at, you'll see that there have been no insider selling in ACAD. The news showed the Baker organization bought at 28.50 recently. I'm sure they're not happy, but on the other hand, perhaps they're going to be buying more. From the market figures we've all looked at on this board, even if the reimbursement price from the government were cut in half, the stock would still be undervalued here. I can't see a good reason to sell here at 24, although emotion of course can take the market anywhere. I would not be surprised to see the biotech selling in general continue, and ACAD has shown particular weakness.

  • rickn27 rickn27 Mar 21, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    so, when exactly IS lockup expiration?

  • rickn27 by rickn27 Mar 21, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    CNBC is trying to fly the notion that biotech is crashing because GILD has gotten an inquiry from congress. ACAD's Pimavanserin will have no such inquiries, given its FDA decision and safety profile. If BIB and ACAD are mirroring each other today, this makes no sense for GILD as a justifiable cause. We've now tested 26 three times and filled the gap made before earnings. We're back above 26 as I write this. I think this is a good buy point. More likely, there is options-related squaring going on. Risk aversion is mentioned as rates rise - but rates today are FALLING, so that makes no sense either. Biotech in general may be topping, but that's a lengthy process and we've gotten down to support levels and should do some back/fill in biotech in general. ACAD is a whole different story, with a blockbuster just waiting in the wings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rickn27 by rickn27 Mar 21, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    ACAD is simply ape'ing the BIB, as per usual. It's turned into a great trading stock, except I am loath to trade it and be out, in case a buy out offer happens at that moment. Take bio and amp it by 2x and you get ACAD. Very greedy/nervous traders here. And on options expiration, I'll try today to just not watch it. I've not done well trading it, but I have done very well in just holding and watching.

  • the 'short chatter' on this board is absurd. Absolutely absurd. These guys were caught and now resort to outright lies to try and avoid their fate. $0.61/quarter gives a PE that says this should be muchmuch higher than $21 when fair value settles in during upcoming days.

  • retail investors seem to have gotten the story wrong; that somehow FEYE didn't prevent TGT's troubles. It was clearly TARGET that is responsible for Target's troubles, if you read the story, dummies!

  • Not to be a buzzkill here, but note that the significance was only 0.45; just barely meeting the "95% confidence" that is traditional for assigning statistical significance. Lest anyone go pricing this stock as if it's a cure for kidney disease. Also, note that the much higher dose showed NO significance. Normally, the problem with higher doses isn't failure of effect, it's the appearance of side-effects. At least there seems to be little danger in the therapy. But a near-double seems excessive for the likely fact that this drug does only a bit better than nothing. But then, the longs are betting someone will take shares off their hands at a higher price, not fairly valuing the company.

  • was clearly positive; look at the pre-market. The selling therefore looks like just profit taking (gap fill). We've hit 3, 66% or so below the peak, and I think this will hold. If you haven't bought yet, this should be a good spot. The CC numbers are not particularly relevant; it's the future now that their key patents have been upheld which will generate income.

  • I suspect that a secondary offering has been a worry hanging over the stock and that's why it has remained so undervalued vs the likely sales. Now that this event is over, more certainty returns, and that's positive for PPS.

  • $120M, a lilttle better than expected. This should allay any doubts about a secondary any time in forseeable future. The earnings themselves are small change and not relevant. On course, and the stock should gradually price in the true value of the company and Pima.

  • rickn27 rickn27 Feb 27, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    I suspect there's some shortcovering ahead of the report, but not much. The real mover is the Medicare announcement of last week, which will significantly boost sales of Pimavanserin vs the poor substitutes out there now. It apprears to be just a waiting game till it goes to market whether by buyout and accelerated progress, or a bit slower if they retain all rights. I think it's interesting that there's no word of ACAD actively seeking out a buyer; that suggests they know what a gold mine they have and are discouraging any inquiries which surely must be happening under the radar. Looking at the market for PDP, and the likely off-label use for Alzheimer's and other neurodegenerative diseases, the value of ACAD could and should easily double. The 18% short interest may get a pop if there's no news tonight, but after that I suspect they'll cover - they certainly SHOULD cover if they're smart. I'll entertain buying more if we drop into the low 20's again.

  • rickn27 by rickn27 Feb 21, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    there's still a huge short position in this stock, and the AAPL ruling can't be happy news for these guys. VHC already tanked well ahead of the ruling, which seems to have caught the shorts off guard. I'm guessing we'll see 21 again, and north of that, once today's options nonsense is done.

  • rickn27 by rickn27 Feb 21, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    this is what the market does; it stalled at 29 back in '13, there's NO news, and insiders saw the stall and thought it was time to do some lightening up just because that's what they live on. But the fundamentals have never changed; the company is still worth easily twice what it is right now. Insider selling helped keep it down below anything like fair value, and rumor on top of rumor about "why are they selling? We better sell too!" only added to it all. Then, we hit 20, retested just a week or so ago at 21, and the fear has been leaving this stock. Now it's starting to begin the process of approaching fair value once again.

  • here's what the knee-jerks don't realize - you now own a more cash-rich company and hence more valuable, albeit a bit smaller percentage of it. The two aspects offset perfectly, and the 6.5 price (always a discount to true value, to entice the buyers) tells you this is NO time to sell. The company's value is clearly higher, showing confidence in the management to put that cash to work in bringing to market their drugs. If it traded at 8 yesterday, it's worth 8 today as well.

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